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Business Cycle Volatility in Germany

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  • Claudia M. Buch
  • Joerg Doepke
  • Christian Pierdzioch

Abstract

. Stylized facts suggest that output volatility in OECD countries has declined in recent years. The causes and the nature of this decline have so far been analyzed mainly for the United States. In this paper, we analyze whether structural changes in output volatility in Germany can be detected. We report evidence that output volatility has declined in Germany. It is difficult to answer the question whether this decline in output volatility reflects good economic and monetary policy or merely ‘good luck’.

Suggested Citation

  • Claudia M. Buch & Joerg Doepke & Christian Pierdzioch, 2004. "Business Cycle Volatility in Germany," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 5(4), pages 451-479, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:germec:v:5:y:2004:i:4:p:451-479
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1465-6485.2004.00117.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Gochoco-Bautista, Maria Socorro & Remolona, Eli M., 2012. "Going Regional: How to Deepen ASEAN's Financial Markets," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 300, Asian Development Bank.
    2. Ulrich Fritsche & Vladimir Kuzin, 2005. "Declining output volatility in Germany: impulses, propagation, and the role of monetary policy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(21), pages 2445-2457.
    3. Eduardo A. Cavallo, 2008. "Output Volatility and Openness to Trade: a Reassessment," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Fall 2008), pages 105-152, September.
    4. Michael Flor, 2014. "Post Reunification Economic Fluctuations in Germany: A Real Business Cycle Interpretation," Working Papers 146, Bavarian Graduate Program in Economics (BGPE).
    5. Buch Claudia M & Doepke Joerg & Stahn Kerstin, 2009. "Great Moderation at the Firm Level? Unconditional vs. Conditional Output Volatility," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-27, May.
    6. Sandra Bilek-Steindl, 2012. "On the Change in the Austrian Business Cycle," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2012(1), pages 1-18.
    7. Magnus Reif, 2022. "Time‐Varying Dynamics of the German Business Cycle: A Comprehensive Investigation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(1), pages 80-102, February.
    8. Eduardo A. Cavallo, 2008. "Output Volatility and Openness to Trade: a Reassessment," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Fall 2008), pages 105-152, September.
    9. Claudia M. Buch & Jörg Döpke & Harald Strotmann, 2009. "Does Export Openness Increase Firm‐level Output Volatility?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(4), pages 531-551, April.
    10. Timm Bönke & Carsten Schröder & Katharina Schulte, 2010. "Incomes and Inequality in the Long Run: The Case of German Elderly," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 11(4), pages 487-510, November.
    11. Christian Aßmann & Jens Hogrefe & Roman Liesenfeld, 2009. "The decline in German output volatility: a Bayesian analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 37(3), pages 653-679, December.
    12. Maria Socorro Gochoco‐Bautista & Dennis S. Mapa, 2010. "Linkages between Trade and Financial Integration and Output Growth in East Asia," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 24(1), pages 1-22, March.
    13. Flor Michael, 2014. "Post reunification economic fluctuations in Germany: a real business cycle interpretation," Review of Business and Economics Studies, CyberLeninka;Федеральное государственное образовательное бюджетное учреждение высшего профессионального образования «Финансовый университет при Правительстве Российской Федерации» (Финансовый университет), issue 4, pages 5-17.
    14. Claudia Buch & Martin Schlotter, 2013. "Regional origins of employment volatility: evidence from German states," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 40(1), pages 1-19, February.
    15. Wolf Heinrich Reuter & Oļegs Tkačevs & Kārlis Vilerts, 2022. "Fiscal rules and volatility: the role of stabilising properties and compliance," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 49(1), pages 21-52, February.
    16. Eswar S. Prasad & Kenneth Rogoff & Shang-Jin Wei & M. Ayhan Kose, 2007. "Financial Globalization, Growth and Volatility in Developing Countries," NBER Chapters, in: Globalization and Poverty, pages 457-516, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Magnus Reif, 2020. "Macroeconomics, Nonlinearities, and the Business Cycle," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 87.
    18. Buch, Claudia M. & Döpke, Jörg & Stahn, Kerstin, 2008. "Great moderation at the firm level? Unconditional versus conditional output volatility," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2008,13, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    19. Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Erik Klär, 2007. "Dem Konjunkturzyklus auf der Spur: zur Prognose konjunktureller Wendepunkte in Deutschland," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 76(4), pages 8-20.
    20. Strunz, Franziska & Gödl, Maximilian, 2023. "An Evaluation of Professional Forecasts for the German Economy," VfS Annual Conference 2023 (Regensburg): Growth and the "sociale Frage" 277707, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    21. Bekiros, Stelios & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Arreola-Hernandez, Jose & Ur Rehman, Mobeen, 2018. "Directional predictability and time-varying spillovers between stock markets and economic cycles," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 301-312.
    22. Klaus Weyerstrass & Bas Aarle & Marcus Kappler & Atilim Seymen, 2011. "Business Cycle Synchronisation with(in) the Euro Area: in Search of a ‘Euro Effect’," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 427-446, July.
    23. William Martin & Robert Rowthorn, 2004. "Will Stability Last?," CESifo Working Paper Series 1324, CESifo.
    24. Strotmann, Harald & Döpke, Jörg & Buch, Claudia M., 2006. "Does trade openness increase firm-level volatility?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,40, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    25. Hasan Engin Duran, 2019. "Structural change and output volatility reduction in OECD countries: evidence of the Second Great Moderation," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 8(1), pages 1-14, December.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

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