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Forecasting the Adoption of Genetically Modified Oilseed Rape

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  • Gunnar Breustedt
  • Uwe Latacz-Lohmann
  • Jorg MŸller-Scheesel

Abstract

We explore farmers' willingness to adopt genetically modified oilseed rape prior to its commercial release and estimate the 'demand' for the new technology. The analysis is based upon experiments with arable farmers in Germany who were asked to choose among conventional and GM rapeseed varieties with different characteristics. Our analysis has shown that "ex ante" GM adoption decisions are driven by profit expectations and personal as well as farm characteristics. Monetary and technological determinants such as the gross margin advantage of GM oilseed rape varieties, expected liability from cross pollination and restricted flexibility in returning to conventional oilseed rape growing affect the willingness to adopt GM rape in the expected directions. The results further indicate that neighbourhood effects and public attitudes matter a lot, such that individual farmers may not feel entirely free in their technology choice. Our demand simulations suggest that monopolistic seed prices would be set at between €50 and €100 per hectare, leaving farmers with a small share of the GM rent. This raises the question as to whether the farmers surveyed would actually benefit from the approval of GM rape varieties if the technology were to be provided by a single firm. Copyright (c) 2009 The Authors. Journal compilation (c) The Agricultural Economics Society and the European Association of Agricultural Economists 2009.

Suggested Citation

  • Gunnar Breustedt & Uwe Latacz-Lohmann & Jorg MŸller-Scheesel, 2009. "Forecasting the Adoption of Genetically Modified Oilseed Rape," EuroChoices, The Agricultural Economics Society, vol. 8(SpecialIs), pages 44-50, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:eurcho:v:8:y:2009:i:specialissuechina:p:44-50
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Matin Qaim & Alain de Janvry, 2003. "Genetically Modified Crops, Corporate Pricing Strategies, and Farmers' Adoption: The Case of Bt Cotton in Argentina," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 85(4), pages 814-828.
    2. Matty Demont & Koen Dillen & Erik Mathijs & Eric Tollens, 2007. "GM Crops in Europe: How Much Value and for Whom? Les cultures génétiquement modifiées en Europe : quels avantages et pour qui? Genetisch veränderte Feldfrüchte in Europa: Welcher Wert und für wen?," EuroChoices, The Agricultural Economics Society, vol. 6(3), pages 46-53, December.
    3. Volker Beckmann & Claudio Soregaroli & Justus Wesseler, 2006. "Coexistence Rules and Regulations in the European Union," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 88(5), pages 1193-1199.
    4. Breustedt, Gunnar & Muller-Scheessel, Jorg & Latacz-Lohmann, Uwe, 2008. "Forecasting the Adoption of GM Oilseed Rape: Evidence from a Discrete Choice Experiment," 82nd Annual Conference, March 31 - April 2, 2008, Royal Agricultural College, Cirencester, UK 36771, Agricultural Economics Society.
    5. Gunnar Breustedt & Jörg Müller‐Scheeßel & Uwe Latacz‐Lohmann, 2008. "Forecasting the Adoption of GM Oilseed Rape: Evidence from a Discrete Choice Experiment in Germany," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(2), pages 237-256, June.
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