IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/eufman/v20y2014i5p1031-1049.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Stochastic Equipment Capital Budgeting with Technological Progress

Author

Listed:
  • Roger Adkins
  • Dean Paxson

Abstract

We provide multi†factor real option models (and quasi†analytical solutions) for equipment capital budgeting under uncertainty, when there is either unexpected, or anticipated, or uncertain (volatile) technological progress. We calculate the threshold level of revenues and operating costs using the incumbent equipment that would justify replacement. Replacement is deferred for lower revenue thresholds. If progress is anticipated or highly uncertain, alert financial managers should wait longer before replacing equipment. Replacement deferral increases with decreases in the expected correlation between revenue and operating costs, and with increases in the revenue and/or operating cost volatility. Uncertain technological progress increases the real option value of waiting. The best approach for equipment suppliers is to reduce the expected revenue and/or cost volatility, and/or reduce the expected uncertainty of technological innovations, since then an incentive exists for the early replacement of old equipment when a technologically advanced version is launched.

Suggested Citation

  • Roger Adkins & Dean Paxson, 2014. "Stochastic Equipment Capital Budgeting with Technological Progress," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 20(5), pages 1031-1049, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:eufman:v:20:y:2014:i:5:p:1031-1049
    DOI: 10.1111/eufm.12000
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/eufm.12000
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/eufm.12000?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Huisman, Kuno J. M. & Kort, Peter M., 2004. "Strategic technology adoption taking into account future technological improvements: A real options approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 159(3), pages 705-728, December.
    2. Huisman, Kuno J. M. & Kort, Peter M., 2003. "Strategic investment in technological innovations," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 144(1), pages 209-223, January.
    3. Manuel Rocha Armada & Lawrence Kryzanowski & Paulo Jorge Pereira, 2011. "Optimal Investment Decisions for Two Positioned Firms Competing in a Duopoly Market with Hidden Competitors," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 17(2), pages 305-330, March.
    4. Adkins, Roger & Paxson, Dean, 2011. "Renewing Assets with Uncertain Revenues and Operating Costs," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 46(3), pages 785-813, June.
    5. Benjamin Caplan, 1940. "The Premature Abandonment of Machinery," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 7(2), pages 113-122.
    6. Christopher R. Knittel, 2011. "Automobiles on Steroids: Product Attribute Trade-Offs and Technological Progress in the Automobile Sector," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(7), pages 3368-3399, December.
    7. Andrianos E. Tsekrekos & Mark B. Shackleton & Rafał Wojakowski, 2012. "Evaluating Natural Resource Investments under Different Model Dynamics: Managerial Insights," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 18(4), pages 543-575, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Adkins, Roger & Paxson, Dean, 2013. "Deterministic models for premature and postponed replacement," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1008-1019.
    2. Sendstad, Lars Hegnes & Chronopoulos, Michail, 2017. "Strategic Technology Switching under Risk Aversion and Uncertainty," Discussion Papers 2017/10, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.
    3. Arve, Malin & Zwart, Gijsbert, 2023. "Optimal procurement and investment in new technologies under uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    4. Alcino Azevedo & Dean Paxson, 2018. "Rivalry and uncertainty in complementary investments with dynamic market sharing," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 271(2), pages 319-355, December.
    5. Huisman, K.J.M. & Kort, P.M. & Pawlina, G. & Thijssen, J.J.J., 2003. "Strategic Investment Under Uncertainty : Merging Real Options with Game Theory," Discussion Paper 2003-6, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    6. Lavrutich, Maria N. & Huisman, Kuno J.M. & Kort, Peter M., 2016. "Entry deterrence and hidden competition," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 409-435.
    7. Azevedo, Alcino & Paxson, Dean, 2014. "Developing real option game models," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 237(3), pages 909-920.
    8. Sendstad, Lars Hegnes & Chronopoulos, Michail, 2021. "Strategic technology switching under risk aversion and uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    9. Yu-Fu Chen & Michael Funke, 2015. "Going Offshore: Investments in German Wind Energy under Uncertainty," CESifo Working Paper Series 5408, CESifo.
    10. Chronopoulos, Michail & Lumbreras, Sara, 2017. "Optimal regime switching under risk aversion and uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 256(2), pages 543-555.
    11. Wang, Congcong & Chen, Shanshan & Wang, Yuhan & Pansera, Bruno Antonio & Luckraz, Shravan, 2023. "On the welfare and policy implications of a two-period real option game," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    12. Luo, Pengfei & Tian, Yuan & Yang, Zhaojun, 2020. "Real option duopolies with quasi-hyperbolic discounting," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    13. Arasteh, Abdollah, 2017. "Considering the investment decisions with real options games approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 1282-1294.
    14. Adkins, Roger & Paxson, Dean, 2019. "Rescaling-contraction with a lower cost technology when revenue declines," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 277(2), pages 574-586.
    15. Philippe Aghion & Antoine Dechezleprêtre & David Hémous & Ralf Martin & John Van Reenen, 2016. "Carbon Taxes, Path Dependency, and Directed Technical Change: Evidence from the Auto Industry," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(1), pages 1-51.
    16. Abdullah Almansour & Margaret Insley, 2016. "The Impact of Stochastic Extraction Cost on the Value of an Exhaustible Resource: An Application to the Alberta Oil Sands," The Energy Journal, , vol. 37(2), pages 61-88, April.
    17. Billette de Villemeur, Etienne & Ruble, Richard & Versaevel, Bruno, 2014. "Innovation and imitation incentives in dynamic duopoly," MPRA Paper 59453, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Hagspiel, V. & Huisman, Kuno & Kort, Peter M. & Nunes, Claudia & Pimentel, Rita, 2018. "Product Innovation of an Incumbent Firm : A Dynamic Analysis," Discussion Paper 2018-048, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    19. Formaneck, Steven D. & Cozzarin, Brian P., 2013. "Technology adoption and training practices as a constrained shortest path problem," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 459-472.
    20. Liangchen Li & Michael Ludkovski, 2018. "Stochastic Switching Games," Papers 1807.03893, arXiv.org.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:eufman:v:20:y:2014:i:5:p:1031-1049. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/efmaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.