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Conflicts of Interest and Research Quality of Affiliated Analysts in the German Universal Banking System: Evidence from IPO Underwriting

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  • Wolfgang Bessler
  • Matthias Stanzel

Abstract

The quality of equity research by financial analysts is a prerequisite for an efficient capital market. This study investigates the quality of earnings forecasts and stock recommendations for initial public offerings (IPOs) in Germany. The empirical study includes 12,605 earnings forecasts and 6,209 stock recommendations of individual analysts for the time period from 1997 to 2004. The focus of this study is on analysing the potential conflicts of interest that arise when the analyst is affiliated with the underwriter of an IPO. In a universal banking system these conflicts of interest are usually more pronounced and therefore interesting to investigate. The empirical findings for the German financial market suggest that earnings forecasts and stock recommendations of the analysts belonging to the lead†underwriter are on average inaccurate and biased, indicating some conflicts of interest. Moreover, the stock recommendations of the analysts that are affiliated with the lead†underwriter are often too optimistic resulting in a significant long†run underperformance for the investor. In contrast, unaffiliated analysts provide better earnings forecasts and stock recommendations that result in a superior performance for the investor.

Suggested Citation

  • Wolfgang Bessler & Matthias Stanzel, 2009. "Conflicts of Interest and Research Quality of Affiliated Analysts in the German Universal Banking System: Evidence from IPO Underwriting," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 15(4), pages 757-786, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:eufman:v:15:y:2009:i:4:p:757-786
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-036X.2009.00508.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Daniel Arand & Alexander G. Kerl, 2015. "Sell†Side Analyst Research and Reported Conflicts of Interest," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 21(1), pages 20-51, January.
    2. Valérie Revest & Alessandro Sapio, 2012. "Financing technology-based small firms in Europe: what do we know?," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 39(1), pages 179-205, July.
    3. Pornsit Jiraporn & Yixin Liu & Young S. Kim, 2014. "How Do Powerful CEOs Affect Analyst Coverage?," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 20(3), pages 652-676, June.
    4. François Aubert & Gary Grudnitski, 2012. "Analysts' estimates," Review of Accounting and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 11(1), pages 53-72, February.
    5. Anolli, Mario & Beccalli, Elena & Molyneux, Philip, 2014. "Bank earnings forecasts, risk and the crisis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 309-335.
    6. Stavros Thomadakis & Christos Nounis & Dimitrios Gounopoulos, 2012. "Long†term Performance of Greek IPOs," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 18(1), pages 117-141, January.
    7. Bessler, Wolfgang & Beyenbach, Johannes & Rapp, Marc Steffen & Vendrasco, Marco, 2021. "The global financial crisis and stock market migrations: An analysis of family and non-family firms in Germany," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    8. Drobetz, Wolfgang & Grüninger, Matthias C. & Hirschvogl, Simone, 2010. "Information asymmetry and the value of cash," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 2168-2184, September.
    9. Jeremy Burke & Angela A. Hung & Jack Clift & Steven Garber & Joanne K. Yoong, 2015. "Impacts of Conflicts of Interest in the Financial Services Industry," Working Papers WR-1076, RAND Corporation.
    10. Prokop, Jörg & Kammann, Benno, 2018. "The effect of the European Markets in Financial Instruments Directive on affiliated analysts’ earnings forecast optimism," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 75-86.
    11. Daniel Arand & Alexander Kerl & Andreas Walter, 2015. "When Do Sell†side Analyst Reports Really Matter? Shareholder Protection, Institutional Investors and the Informativeness of Equity Research," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 21(3), pages 524-555, June.
    12. Wolfgang Bessler & Martin Seim, 2013. "Venture capital and IPO waves in Europe: an analysis of firm and performance characteristics," Chapters, in: Mario Levis & Silvio Vismara (ed.), Handbook of Research on IPOs, chapter 15, pages 295-326, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    13. Wolfgang Bessler & Wolfgang Drobetz & Martin Seim & Jan Zimmermann, 2016. "Equity Issues and Stock Repurchases of Initial Public Offerings," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 22(1), pages 31-62, January.
    14. Li, Shi & Wu, Chaopeng & Yang, Shijie, 2021. "Affiliated block shareholders and analyst optimism," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    15. Armen Hovakimian & Ekkachai Saenyasiri, 2014. "US Analyst Regulation and the Earnings Forecast Bias around the World," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 20(3), pages 435-461, June.

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