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The effect of North Korean threats on financial markets in South Korea and Japan

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  • Dibooglu, Sel
  • Cevik, Emrah. I.

Abstract

This paper examines the effects of North Korean threats, as measured by the proprietary North Korean Threat Index (NKTI), on financial markets in South Korea and Japan. We examine the effects of the threats on stock markets, foreign exchange markets, and overnight interest rates. We consider causality in mean and variance tests to determine any link between the NKTI and financial variables. The causality-in-mean test results indicate the presence of a causal link running from North Korean threats to stock returns and exchange rate returns in both countries, but no significant link to the overnight interest rate in either country. The causality-in-variance test results indicate no significant impact emanating from North Korean threats. Integrating the North Korean economy into the global economy stands to eliminate these threats and thus to contribute to regional financial stability.

Suggested Citation

  • Dibooglu, Sel & Cevik, Emrah. I., 2016. "The effect of North Korean threats on financial markets in South Korea and Japan," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 18-26.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:asieco:v:43:y:2016:i:c:p:18-26
    DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2016.03.002
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Ng, Lilian K., 1996. "A causality-in-variance test and its application to financial market prices," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1-2), pages 33-48.
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    4. Byung-Yeon Kim & Gérard Roland, 2014. "How credible is the North Korean threat?," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 22(3), pages 433-459, July.
    5. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    6. Panagiotis Mantalos & Ghazi Shukur, 2010. "The effect of spillover on the Granger causality test," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(9), pages 1473-1486.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Park, Cheolbeom & Park, Suyeon, 2020. "Rare disaster risk and exchange rates: An empirical investigation of South Korean exchange rates under tension between the two Koreas," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 36(C).
    2. Jung, Seungho & Lee, Jongmin & Lee, Seohyun, 2021. "The impact of geopolitical risk on stock returns: Evidence from inter-Korea geopolitics," MPRA Paper 108006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Kim, Myeong Hyeon & Kim, Young Min & Yang, Kisung, 2022. "Understanding BOXPI — Industry portfolio perspectives," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    4. Shao, Wei & Wang, Jian, 2020. "Does the “ice-breaking” of South and North Korea affect the South Korean financial market?," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    5. In Huh & Ju Hyun Pyun, 2018. "Does Nuclear Uncertainty Threaten Financial Markets? The Attention Paid to North Korean Nuclear Threats and Its Impact on South Korea's Financial Markets," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 32(1), pages 55-82, March.
    6. Craig S. Galbraith & Edward Graham & Jake Lee, 2024. "Impact of North Korean Threats on Housing Prices in South Korea: A Research Note," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 27(3), pages 361-371.
    7. Umar, Zaghum & Polat, Onur & Choi, Sun-Yong & Teplova, Tamara, 2022. "The impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the connectedness of financial markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    8. Cheolbeom Park & Suyeon Park, 2018. "Rare Disasters and Exchange Rates: An Empirical Investigation of South Korean Exchange Rates under Tension between the Two Koreas," Working Papers 2018-8, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Military threats; Financial markets; Stock returns;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

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