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Crime, Weather and Climate Change in Australia

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  • Sefa Awaworyi Churchill
  • Russell Smyth
  • Trong‐Anh Trinh

Abstract

We estimate the effect of temperature on monthly crime using a panel dataset that matches weather with crime rates for over 3,000 postcodes in Australia over the period 2001–2019. We find that a standard deviation increase in average temperature is associated with a 0.008–0.011 standard deviation increase in the crime rate, depending on the specification. This translates to over 72,000 additional crimes per year across Australia. We estimate that over the course of the rest of the century, under a business‐as‐usual pathway, climate change will be responsible for approximately 1.64 million additional crimes.

Suggested Citation

  • Sefa Awaworyi Churchill & Russell Smyth & Trong‐Anh Trinh, 2023. "Crime, Weather and Climate Change in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 99(324), pages 84-107, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecorec:v:99:y:2023:i:324:p:84-107
    DOI: 10.1111/1475-4932.12720
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    3. Bui, Thanh-Huong & Bui, Ha-Phuong & Pham, Thi Mai-Anh, 2024. "Effects of temperature on job insecurity: Evidence from Australia," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 264-276.
    4. Awaworyi Churchill, Sefa & Munyanyi, Musharavati Ephraim & Trinh, Trong-Anh & Wiklund, Johan, 2024. "From disastrous heat waves to extreme rains: Effects of weather shocks on entrepreneurship," Journal of Business Venturing Insights, Elsevier, vol. 21(C).

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