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Exchange Rate Instability: A Threshold Autoregressive Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Ólan T. Henry
  • Nilss Olekalns
  • Peter M. Summers

Abstract

We fit a two‐regime threshold autoregressive model to a trade weighted index of the Australian real exchange rate. We find strong evidence of a threshold in the real exchange rate, with the data being classified into two regimes. The timing of the first regime is consistent with events that would be expected to have led to pressure on the Australian exchange rate. However, there is no evidence to suggest that the Asian economic crisis led to the real exchange rate entering this regime.

Suggested Citation

  • Ólan T. Henry & Nilss Olekalns & Peter M. Summers, 2001. "Exchange Rate Instability: A Threshold Autoregressive Approach," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 77(237), pages 160-166, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecorec:v:77:y:2001:i:237:p:160-166
    DOI: 10.1111/1475-4932.00011
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    Cited by:

    1. Liew, Venus Khim-Sen, 2008. "An overview on various ways of bootstrap methods," MPRA Paper 7163, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Paulo Rodrigues & Nazarii Salish, 2015. "Modeling and forecasting interval time series with threshold models," Advances in Data Analysis and Classification, Springer;German Classification Society - Gesellschaft für Klassifikation (GfKl);Japanese Classification Society (JCS);Classification and Data Analysis Group of the Italian Statistical Society (CLADAG);International Federation of Classification Societies (IFCS), vol. 9(1), pages 41-57, March.
    3. Venus Khim-sen Liew & Terence Tai- leung Chong, 2003. "Effects of STAR and TAR types nonlinearities on order selection criteria," Econometrics 0307005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Gayaker, Savas & Ağaslan, Erkan & Alkan, Buket & Çiçek, Serkan, 2021. "The deterioration in credibility, destabilization of exchange rate and the rise in exchange rate pass-through in Turkey," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 571-587.
    5. Paulo M.M. Rodrigues & Nazarii Salish, 2011. "Modeling and Forecasting Interval Time Series with Threshold Models: An Application to S&P500 Index Returns," Working Papers w201128, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    6. Terasvirta, Timo, 2006. "Forecasting economic variables with nonlinear models," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 8, pages 413-457, Elsevier.
    7. Henry, Olan T. & Olekalns, Nilss, 2002. "Does the Australian dollar real exchange rate display mean reversion," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 651-666, October.
    8. Adrian Pagan, 2002. "Learning About Models and Their Fit to Data," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(2), pages 1-18.
    9. Chong Terence T. L. & He Qing & Hinich Melvin J, 2008. "The Nonlinear Dynamics of Foreign Reserves and Currency Crises," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(4), pages 1-18, December.
    10. Chong, Terence Tai Leung & Yan, Isabel K., 2014. "Estimating and Testing Threshold Regression Models with Multiple Threshold Variables," MPRA Paper 54732, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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