The Nonlinear Dynamics of Foreign Reserves and Currency Crises
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
DOI: 10.2202/1558-3708.1605
Download full text from publisher
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
- Chong, Terence Tai-Leung, 2001.
"Structural Change In Ar(1) Models,"
Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(1), pages 87-155, February.
- Terence Tai-Leung, Chong, 1997. "Structural Change in AR(1) Models," Departmental Working Papers _079, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics.
- Jushan Bai & Haiqiang Chen & Terence Tai-Leung Chong & Seraph Xin Wang, 2008.
"Generic consistency of the break-point estimators under specification errors in a multiple-break model,"
Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 11(2), pages 287-307, July.
- Seraph Xin Wang & Terence Tai-leung Chong & Haiqiang Chen, 2004. "Generic Consistency of the Break-Point Estimators under Specification Errors in a Multiple-Break Model," Departmental Working Papers _160, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics.
- Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1996.
"Currency Crashes in Emerging Markets: Empirical Indicators,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1349, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1996. "Currency Crashes in Emerging Markets: Empirical Indicators," NBER Working Papers 5437, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jeffrey J. Frankel and Andrew K. Rose., 1996. "Currency Crashes in Emerging Markets: Empirical Indicators," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C96-062, University of California at Berkeley.
- Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Currency Crashes in Emerging Markets: Empirical Indicators," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers 233424, University of California-Berkeley, Department of Economics.
- Joshua Aizenman & Jaewoo Lee, 2007.
"International Reserves: Precautionary Versus Mercantilist Views, Theory and Evidence,"
Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 191-214, April.
- Joshua Aizenman & Jaewoo Lee, 2005. "International reserves: precautionary versus mercantilist views, theory and evidence," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Joshua Aizenman & Jaewoo Lee, 2005. "International Reserves: Precautionary versus Mercantilist Views, Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 11366, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Aizenman, Joshua & LEE, JAEWOO, 2005. "International Reserves: Precautionary versus Mercantilist Views, Theory and Evidence," Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Working Paper Series qt44g3n2j8, Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
- Aizenman, Joshua & LEE, JAEWOO, 2005. "International Reserves: Precautionary versus Mercantilist Views, Theory and Evidence," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt2tn4w8x6, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
- Aizenman, Joshua & LEE, JAEWOO, 2005. "International Reserves: Precautionary versus Mercantilist Views, Theory and Evidence," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt44g3n2j8, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
- Obstfeld, Maurice, 1986.
"Rational and Self-fulfilling Balance-of-Payments Crises,"
American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(1), pages 72-81, March.
- Maurice Obstfeld, 1984. "Rational and Self-Fulfilling Balance-of-Payments Crises," NBER Working Papers 1486, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mr. Zhiwei Zhang, 2001. "Speculative Attacks in the Asian Crisis," IMF Working Papers 2001/189, International Monetary Fund.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999.
"The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems,"
American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
- Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems," International Finance Discussion Papers 544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000. "Las crisis gemelas: las causas de los problemas bancarios y de balanza de pagos [The twin crises: Te causes of banking and balance of payments problems]," MPRA Paper 13842, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1999. "The twin crises: The causes of banking and balance of payments problems," MPRA Paper 14081, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Barry Eichengreen & Andrew K. Rose & Charles Wyplosz, 1996.
"Contagious Currency Crises,"
NBER Working Papers
5681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew K & Wyplosz, Charles, 1996. "Contagious Currency Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 1453, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Jeffrey D. Sachs & Aaron Tornell & Andrés Velasco, 1996.
"Financial Crises in Emerging Markets: The Lessons from 1995,"
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(1), pages 147-216.
- Jeffrey Sachs & Aaron Tornell & Andres Velasco, 1996. "Financial Crises in Emerging Markets: The Lessons from 1995," NBER Working Papers 5576, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jeffrey Sachs & Aaron Tornell & Andres Velasco, 1996. "Financial Crises in Emerging Markets: The Lessons from 1995," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1759, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Chong, Terence Tai-Leung, 2000.
"Estimating the differencing parameter via the partial autocorrelation function,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 365-381, August.
- Terence Tai-Leung, Chong, 1998. "Estimating the Differencing Parameter Via the Partial Autocorrelation Function," Departmental Working Papers _088, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics.
- McKinnon, Ronald I & Pill, Huw, 1997. "Credible Economic Liberalizations and Overborrowing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 189-193, May.
- George Soros, 1999. "The International Financial Crisis," Challenge, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(2), pages 58-76, March.
- Hansen, Bruce E., 1999.
"Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing, and inference,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 345-368, December.
- Bruce E. Hansen, 1997. "Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing and inference," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 365, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "RATS programs to replicate Hansen's example of threshold break in panel data," Statistical Software Components RTZ00088, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "PANELTHRESH: RATS procedure to analyze up to two threshold breaks in a fixed effects panel model," Statistical Software Components RTS00152, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Morris Goldstein & Graciela Kaminsky & Carmen Reinhart, 2017.
"Methodology and Empirical Results,"
World Scientific Book Chapters, in: TRADE CURRENCIES AND FINANCE, chapter 11, pages 397-436,
World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
- Morris Goldstein & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Assessing Financial Vulnerability: An Early Warning System for Emerging Markets," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 100, April.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Goldstein, Morris & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000. "Early Warning System: Empirical Results from The Signals Approach," MPRA Paper 24577, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Goldstein, Morris & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000. "Rating the Rating Agencies," MPRA Paper 24578, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela & Goldstein, Morris, 2000. "Notes on contagion," MPRA Paper 24569, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Goldstein, Morris & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000. "Early Warning System: An Assessment of Vulnerability," MPRA Paper 24579, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Goldstein, Morris & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000. "Methodology for an Early Warning System: The Signals Approach," MPRA Paper 24576, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Goldstein, Morris & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000. "Some Policy Issues Regarding an Early Warning System," MPRA Paper 24580, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Goldstein, Morris & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000. "The Wake of Crises and Devaluations," MPRA Paper 24570, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Dueker, Michael J. & Sola, Martin & Spagnolo, Fabio, 2007.
"Contemporaneous threshold autoregressive models: Estimation, testing and forecasting,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 517-547, December.
- Michael Dueker & Martin Sola & Fabio Spagnolo, 2006. "Contemporaneous Threshold Autoregressive Models: Estimation, Testing and Forecasting," Department of Economics Working Papers 2006-04, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
- Michael Dueker & Martin Sola & Fabio Spagnolo, 2007. "Contemporaneous Threshold Autoregressive Models: Estimation, Testing and Forecasting," Discussion Papers 5_2007, D.E.S. (Department of Economic Studies), University of Naples "Parthenope", Italy.
- Michael J. Dueker & Martin Sola & Fabio Spagnolo, 2006. "Contemporaneous threshold autoregressive models: estimation, testing and forecasting," Working Papers 2003-024, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Mr. Abdul d Abiad, 2003. "Early Warning Systems: A Survey and a Regime-Switching Approach," IMF Working Papers 2003/032, International Monetary Fund.
- Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995.
"Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July.
- Pesaran, M.H. & Smith, R., 1992. "Estimating Long-Run Relationships From Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9215, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Hinich Melvin J. & Chong Terence T.L., 2007. "A Class Test for Fractional Integration," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 11(2), pages 1-24, May.
- Paul Krugman, 1999. "Balance Sheets, the Transfer Problem, and Financial Crises," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 6(4), pages 459-472, November.
- Graham Bird & Ramkishen Rajan, 2003.
"Too Much of a Good Thing? The Adequacy of International Reserves in the Aftermath of Crises,"
The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(6), pages 873-891, June.
- Graham Bird & Ramkishen Rajan, 2002. "Too Much of a Good Thing?: The Adequacy of International Reserves in the Aftermath of Crises," Centre for International Economic Studies Working Papers 2002-10, University of Adelaide, Centre for International Economic Studies.
- Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-325, August.
- Dani Rodrik & Andres Velasco, 1999. "Short-Term Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 7364, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ólan T. Henry & Nilss Olekalns & Peter M. Summers, 2001. "Exchange Rate Instability: A Threshold Autoregressive Approach," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 77(237), pages 160-166, June.
- Astatkie, T. & Watts, D. G. & Watt, W. E., 1997. "Nested threshold autoregressive (NeTAR) models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 105-116, March.
- Terence Tai-Leung Chong, 2003. "Generic consistency of the break-point estimator under specification errors," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 6(1), pages 167-192, June.
- Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996.
"Currency crashes in emerging markets: An empirical treatment,"
Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 351-366, November.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: an empirical treatment," International Finance Discussion Papers 534, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Hong, Kiseok & Tornell, Aaron, 2005. "Recovery from a currency crisis: some stylized facts," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 71-96, February.
- Miller, Victoria, 2000. "Central bank reactions to banking crises in fixed exchange rate regimes," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 451-472, December.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
- Chong, Terence Tai-Leung & Lam, Tau-Hing & Yan, Isabel Kit-Ming, 2012.
"Is the Chinese stock market really inefficient?,"
China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 122-137.
- Yan, Isabel K. & Chong, Terence & Lam, Tau-Hing, 2011. "Is the Chinese Stock Market Really Efficient," MPRA Paper 35219, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Terence Tai-Leung Chong & Qing He & Wing Hong Chan, 2016.
"From Fixed to Float: A Competing Risks Analysis,"
International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(4), pages 488-503, October.
- Chong, Terence Tai Leung & He, Qing & Chan, Wing Hong, 2014. "From Fixed to Float: A Competing Risks Analysis," MPRA Paper 60824, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Chong, Terence T.L. & Yan, Isabel K., 2018.
"Forecasting currency crises with threshold models,"
International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 156-174.
- Terence T.L. Chong & Isabel K. Yan, 2018. "Forecasting currency crises with threshold models," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 156, pages 156-174.
- He, Qing & Guo, Yongxiu & Yu, Jishuang, 2020. "Nonlinear dynamics of gold and the dollar," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
- Yu-Hau Hu & Shun-Jen Hsueh, 2013. "A Study of yhe Nonlinear Relationships among the U.S. and Asian Stock Markets during Financial Crises," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 134-147, December.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Frankel, Jeffrey, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 25, pages 1439-1520, Elsevier.
- Chong, Terence T.L. & Yan, Isabel K., 2018.
"Forecasting currency crises with threshold models,"
International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 156-174.
- Terence T.L. Chong & Isabel K. Yan, 2018. "Forecasting currency crises with threshold models," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 156, pages 156-174.
- Chong, Terence Tai Leung & Yan, Isabel K., 2014. "Estimating and Testing Threshold Regression Models with Multiple Threshold Variables," MPRA Paper 54732, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Rakesh Padhan & K. P. Prabheesh, 2019. "Effectiveness Of Early Warning Models: A Critical Review And New Agenda For Future Direction," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 22(4), pages 457-484, December.
- Ari, Ali, 2008.
"An Early Warning Signals Approach for Currency Crises: The Turkish Case,"
MPRA Paper
25858, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2009.
- Ali ARI, 2009. "An Early Warning Signals Approach to the Currency Crises: The Turkish Case," 2009 Meeting Papers 1045, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Ari, Ali, 2012. "Early warning systems for currency crises: The Turkish case," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 391-410.
- Komulainen, Tuomas, 2001. "Currency crises in emerging markets : Capital flows and herding behaviour," BOFIT Discussion Papers 10/2001, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
- Ahec Šonje, Amina & Babić, Ante, 2002. "Measuring and predicting currency disturbances in Croatia: the “signals” approach," MPRA Paper 83137, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2002.
- Pavel Trunin & M. Kamenskih, 2007. "Monitoring Financial Stability In Developing Economies (Case of Russia)," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 111.
- Ahec Šonje, Amina & Babić, Ante & Mlinarević, Katarina, 2003. "Determinants of currency disturbances in transition economies of Central and Eastern Europe," MPRA Paper 83140, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Mar 2003.
- repec:zbw:bofitp:2001_010 is not listed on IDEAS
- Mohammad Karimi & Marcel‐Cristian Voia, 2019.
"Empirics of currency crises: A duration analysis approach,"
Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(3), pages 428-449, July.
- Mohammad Karimi & Marcel-Cristian Voia, 2011. "Empirics of Currency Crises: A Duration Analysis Approach," Carleton Economic Papers 11-11, Carleton University, Department of Economics.
- Mohammad Karimi & Marcel-Cristian Voia, 2019. "Empirics of currency crises: A duration analysis approach," Post-Print hal-03528952, HAL.
- Marcel Fratzscher, 2003.
"On currency crises and contagion,"
International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(2), pages 109-129.
- Marcel Fratzscher, 2000. "On Currency Crises and Contagion," Working Paper Series WP00-9, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
- Fratzscher, Marcel, 2002. "On currency crises and contagion," Working Paper Series 139, European Central Bank.
- Mustapha Djennas & Mohamed Benbouziane & Meriem Djennas, 2011. "An Approach of Combining Empirical Mode Decomposition and Neural Network Learning for Currency Crisis Forecasting," Working Papers 627, Economic Research Forum, revised 09 Jan 2011.
- Andre Cartapanis, 2004. "Le declenchement des crises de change : qu'avons-nous appris depuis dix ans ?," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 97, pages 5-48.
- Cruz-Rodríguez Alexis, 2013.
"The Relationship between Fiscal Sustainability and Currency Crises in Some Selected Countries,"
Review of Economic Perspectives, Sciendo, vol. 13(4), pages 176-194, December.
- Cruz-Rodríguez, Alexis, 2013. "The Relationship between Fiscal Sustainability and Currency Crises in Some Selected Countries," MPRA Paper 72102, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Gian Maria Milesi Ferretti & Assaf Razin, 2000.
"Current Account Reversals and Currency Crises: Empirical Regularities,"
NBER Chapters, in: Currency Crises, pages 285-323,
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mr. Gian M Milesi-Ferretti & Assaf Razin, 1998. "Current Account Reversals and Currency Crises: Empirical Regularities," IMF Working Papers 1998/089, International Monetary Fund.
- Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti & Assaf Razin, 1998. "Current Account Reversals and Currency Crises: Empirical Regularities," NBER Working Papers 6620, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria & Razin, Assaf, 1998. "Current Account Reversals and Currency Crises: Empirical Regularities," CEPR Discussion Papers 1921, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Komulainen, Tuomas, 2004. "Essays on financial crises in emerging markets," Scientific Monographs, Bank of Finland, number 2004_029.
- repec:zbw:bofism:2004_029 is not listed on IDEAS
- Komulainen, Tuomas, 2004. "Essays on financial crises in emerging markets," Bank of Finland Scientific Monographs, Bank of Finland, volume 0, number sm2004_029, July.
- Knedlik, Tobias & Scheufele, Rolf, 2007. "Three methods of forecasting currency crises: Which made the run in signaling the South African currency crisis of June 2006?," IWH Discussion Papers 17/2007, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
- Karatas, B., 2014. "Financial crisis and monetary policy," Other publications TiSEM 41e463f0-e122-4379-8db5-6, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
Corrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bpj:sndecm:v:12:y:2008:i:4:n:2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Golla (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.degruyter.com .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.