Forward Discount Bias: Is it Near‐Rationality in the Foreign Exchange Market?
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
DOI: 10.1111/j.1475-4932.1995.tb01882.x
Download full text from publisher
References listed on IDEAS
- Cecchetti, Stephen G & Mark, Nelson C, 1990. "Evaluating Empirical Tests of Asset Pricing Models: Alternative Interpretations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 48-51, May.
- Frankel, Jeffrey A., 1988. "Recent Estimates of the Time-Variation in the Conditional Variance and in the Exchange Risk Premium," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt23c9q73d, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
- Froot, Kenneth A. & Frankel, Jeffrey A., 1988. "Forward Discount Bias: Is It an Exchange Risk Premium?," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt5w65g4zg, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
- Frankel, Jeff & Froot, Ken, 1986. "Using Survey Data to Test Standard Propositions Regarding Exchange Rate Expectations," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt1972q8wm, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
- Engel, Charles, 1992.
"On the foreign exchange risk premium in a general equilibrium model,"
Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3-4), pages 305-319, May.
- Charles Engel, 1990. "On the foreign exchange risk premium in a general equilibrium model," Research Working Paper 90-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Lewis, Karen K, 1989. "Changing Beliefs and Systematic Rational Forecast Errors with Evidence from Foreign Exchange," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 621-636, September.
- Baldwin, Richard, 1990.
"Re-Interpreting the Failure of Foreign Exchange Market Efficiency Tests: Small Transaction Costs, Big Hysteresis Bands,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
407, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Richard E. Baldwin, 1990. "Re-Interpreting the Failure of Foreign Exchange Market Efficiency Tests:Small Transaction Costs, Big Hysteresis Bands," NBER Working Papers 3319, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Frankel, Jeffrey A., 1988.
"Recent estimates of time-variation in the conditional variance and in the exchange risk premium,"
Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 115-125, March.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1987. "Recent Estimates of Time-Variation in the Conditional Variance and in the Exchange Risk Premium," NBER Working Papers 2367, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel., 1988. "Recent Estimates of Time-Variation in the Conditional Variance and in the Exchange Risk Premium," Economics Working Papers 8866, University of California at Berkeley.
- Frankel, Jeffrey A & Chinn, Menzie D, 1993.
"Exchange Rate Expectations and the Risk Premium: Tests for a Cross Section of 17 Currencies,"
Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(2), pages 136-144, June.
- Jeffrey Frankel & Menzie Chinn, 1991. "Exchange Rate Expectations and the Risk Premium: Tests For a Cross- Section of 17 Currencies," NBER Working Papers 3806, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim, 1990. "A multivariate generalized ARCH approach to modeling risk premia in forward foreign exchange rate markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 309-324, September.
- Krasker, William S., 1980. "The `peso problem' in testing the efficiency of forward exchange markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 269-276, April.
- Baillie, Richard T & Bollerslev, Tim, 2002.
"The Message in Daily Exchange Rates: A Conditional-Variance Tale,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 60-68, January.
- Baillie, Richard T & Bollerslev, Tim, 1989. "The Message in Daily Exchange Rates: A Conditional-Variance Tale," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 7(3), pages 297-305, July.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "RATS program to replicate Baillie and Bollerslev GARCH models with day-of-week effects," Statistical Software Components RTZ00172, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel & Richard Meese, 1987.
"Are Exchange Rates Excessively Variable?,"
NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1987, Volume 2, pages 117-162,
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel & Richard Meese, 1987. "Are Exchange Rates Excessively Variable?," NBER Working Papers 2249, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel and Richard Meese., 1987. "Are Exchange Rates Excessively Variable," Economics Working Papers 8738, University of California at Berkeley.
- Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
- Kenneth A. Froot & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1989.
"Forward Discount Bias: Is it an Exchange Risk Premium?,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 104(1), pages 139-161.
- Kenneth A. Froot and Jeffrey A. Frankel., 1988. "Forward Discount Bias: Is It an Exchange Risk Premium?," Economics Working Papers 8874, University of California at Berkeley.
- Cumby, Robert E., 1988.
"Is it risk? : Explaining deviations from uncovered interest parity,"
Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 279-299, September.
- Robert E. Cumby, 1987. "Is it Risk? Explaining Deviations from Uncovered Interest Parity," NBER Working Papers 2380, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Frankel, Jeffrey A & Froot, Kenneth A, 1987. "Using Survey Data to Test Standard Propositions Regarding Exchange Rate Expectations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(1), pages 133-153, March.
- Akerlof, George A & Yellen, Janet L, 1985. "Can Small Deviations from Rationality Make Significant Differences to Economic Equilibria?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(4), pages 708-720, September.
- Goodhart, Charles, 1988. "The Foreign Exchange Market: A Random Walk with a Dragging Anchor," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 55(220), pages 437-460, November.
- Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Meese, Richard, 1987. "Are Exchange Rates Excessively Variable?," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt18n4c5f6, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1985. "The Dazzling Dollar," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 16(1), pages 199-217.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Gruen, D.W.R. & Gizycki, M.C., 1993.
"Explaining Forward Discount Bias: Is It Anchoring?,"
Papers
164, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Public and International Affairs.
- David W.R. Gruen & Marianne C. Gizycki, 1993. "Explaining Forward Discount Bias: Is it Anchoring?," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9307, Reserve Bank of Australia.
- David W.R. Gruen & Gordon D. Menzies, 1991. "The Failure of Uncovered Interest Parity: Is it Near-rationality in the Foreign Exchange Market?," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9103, Reserve Bank of Australia.
- Engel, Charles, 1996.
"The forward discount anomaly and the risk premium: A survey of recent evidence,"
Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 123-192, June.
- Charles Engel, 1995. "The Forward Discount Anomaly and the Risk Premium: A Survey of Recent Evidence," NBER Working Papers 5312, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Norman C. Miller, 2014. "Exchange Rate Economics," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14981.
- Javier Bianchi & Saki Bigio & Charles Engel, 2021.
"Scrambling for Dollars: International Liquidity, Banks and Exchange Rates,"
Working Papers
786, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Engel, Charles & Bianchi, Javier & Bigio, Saki, 2021. "Scrambling for Dollars: International Liquidity, Banks and Exchange Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 16712, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Javier Bianchi & Saki Bigio & Charles Engel, 2021. "Scrambling for Dollars: International Liquidity, Banks and Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 29457, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Javier Bianchi & Saki Bigio & Charles Engel, 2022. "Scrambling for Dollars: International Liquidity, Banks and Exchange Rates," Working Papers 182, Peruvian Economic Association.
- Tim Bollerslev & Ray Y. Chou & Narayanan Jayaraman & Kenneth F. Kroner - L, 1991. "es modéles ARCH en finance : un point sur la théorie et les résultats empiriques," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 24, pages 1-59.
- repec:adr:anecst:y:1991:i:24:p:01 is not listed on IDEAS
- Lucio Sarno, 2005.
"Viewpoint: Towards a solution to the puzzles in exchange rate economics: where do we stand?,"
Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(3), pages 673-708, August.
- Lucio Sarno, 2005. "Viewpoint: Towards a solution to the puzzles in exchange rate economics: where do we stand?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 38(3), pages 673-708, August.
- Lewis, Karen K., 1995.
"Puzzles in international financial markets,"
Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 37, pages 1913-1971,
Elsevier.
- Lewis, K.K., 1994. "Puzzles in international Financial Markets," Weiss Center Working Papers 94-7, Wharton School - Weiss Center for International Financial Research.
- Karen K. Lewis, 1994. "Puzzles in International Financial Markets," NBER Working Papers 4951, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ron Jongen & Willem F.C. Verschoor & Christian C.P. Wolff, 2008. "Foreign Exchange Rate Expectations: Survey And Synthesis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(1), pages 140-165, February.
- Menzie Chinn & Jeffrey Frankel, 1991.
"Patterns in Exchange Rate Forecasts for 25 Currencies,"
NBER Working Papers
3807, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Chinn, Menzie & Frankel, Jeffrey, 1993. "Patterns in Exchange Rate Forecasts for 25 Currencies," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers 233182, University of California-Berkeley, Department of Economics.
- Menzie Chinn and Jeffrey Frankel., 1993. "Patterns in Exchange Rate Forecasts for 25 Currencies," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C93-009, University of California at Berkeley.
- Joachim Zietz & Ghassem Homaifar, 1994. "Exchange rate uncertainty and the efficiency of the forward market for foreign exchange," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 130(3), pages 461-475, September.
- Frydman Roman & Goldberg Michael D., 2008. "Macroeconomic Theory for a World of Imperfect Knowledge," Capitalism and Society, De Gruyter, vol. 3(3), pages 1-78, December.
- Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Hélène Raymond, 1996. "Les erreurs de prévision de change ont-elles des caractéristiques hétérogènes ?," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 125(4), pages 137-157.
- Oscar Bajo-Rubio & Simón Sosvilla Rivero, 1993. "Teorías del tipo de cambio: una panorámica," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 9307, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
- Bacchetta, Philippe & Mertens, Elmar & van Wincoop, Eric, 2009.
"Predictability in financial markets: What do survey expectations tell us?,"
Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 406-426, April.
- Philippe Bacchetta & Elmar Mertens & Eric VanvWincoop, 2006. "Predictability in Financial Markets: What Do Survey Expectations Tell Us?," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 06-15, Swiss Finance Institute, revised Jun 2006.
- Philippe Bacchetta & Elmar Mertens & Eric van Wincoop, 2006. "Predictability in Financial Markets: What Do Survey Expectations Tell Us?," Working Papers 06.04, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
- Bacchetta, Philippe & van Wincoop, Eric & Mertens, Elmar, 2006. "Predictability in Financial Markets: What Do Survey Expectations Tell Us?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5770, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Philippe Bacchetta & Elmar Mertens & Eric van Wincoop, 2006. "Predictability in Financial Markets: What Do Survey Expectations Tell Us?," Working Papers 102006, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
- Frankel, Jeffrey A & Chinn, Menzie D, 1993.
"Exchange Rate Expectations and the Risk Premium: Tests for a Cross Section of 17 Currencies,"
Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(2), pages 136-144, June.
- Jeffrey Frankel & Menzie Chinn, 1991. "Exchange Rate Expectations and the Risk Premium: Tests For a Cross- Section of 17 Currencies," NBER Working Papers 3806, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Verschoor, Willem F. C. & Wolff, Christian C. P., 2001. "Exchange risk premia, expectations formation and "news" in the Mexican peso/U.S. dollar forward exchange rate market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 157-174.
- Frankel, Jeffrey, 1995.
"How Well Do Foreign Exchange Markets Function: Might a Tobin Tax Help?,"
Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers
233420, University of California-Berkeley, Department of Economics.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1996. "How Well do Foreign Exchange Markets Function: Might a Tobin Tax Help?," NBER Working Papers 5422, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jeffrey Frankel., 1995. "How Well Do Foreign Exchange Markets Function: Might a Tobin Tax Help?," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C95-058, University of California at Berkeley.
- Graham Elliott & Takatoshi Ito, 1995. "Heterogeneous Expectations and Tests of Efficiency in the Yen/Dollar Forward Foreign Exchange Rate Market," NBER Working Papers 5376, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Menzie D. Chinn & Saad Quayyum, 2012. "Long Horizon Uncovered Interest Parity Re-Assessed," NBER Working Papers 18482, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Corrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:ecorec:v:71:y:1995:i:2:p:157-166. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing or Christopher F. Baum (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/esausea.html .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.