IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/devpol/v42y2024is1ne12790.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Foresight and futures thinking for international development co‐operation: Promises and pitfalls

Author

Listed:
  • Fraser Reilly‐King
  • Colleen Duggan
  • Alex Wilner

Abstract

Motivation Strategic foresight is gaining traction for anticipating changes in a volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous (VUCA) world—one which will require different mindsets and approaches. Yet international development co‐operation practitioners have been slow to adopt foresight. Purpose What promises and pitfalls should development practitioners consider in order to integrate strategic foresight into their work? Methods and approach We review the literature on strategic foresight applied to development. We draw on reflections from the articles included in this special issue. We incorporate the International Development Research Centre's experiences and early insights on the use of foresight for development. Findings Strategic foresight provides tools to anticipate long‐term and potentially disruptive change. To apply the approach effectively, organizations need to understand the debates about foresight. But no one size fits all: organizations must identify where and how foresight can best be used; be clear on its purpose, use, and end‐users; be sensitive to how foresight intersects with broader calls for decolonizing development and the future; and should adapt methods to different sociocultural contexts. Connecting foresight practitioners and international development actors to explore potential synergies between these two worlds offers opportunities to innovate. Policy implications Traditional, short‐term strategic planning, and reactive responses to emerging crises, are increasingly ill‐suited to a VUCA world. To be fit for the future, international development actors must consider adding proactive longer‐term anticipatory planning—that accommodates more systematic understanding and appreciation of plausible futures—to reactive responses.

Suggested Citation

  • Fraser Reilly‐King & Colleen Duggan & Alex Wilner, 2024. "Foresight and futures thinking for international development co‐operation: Promises and pitfalls," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 42(S1), June.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:devpol:v:42:y:2024:i:s1:n:e12790
    DOI: 10.1111/dpr.12790
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/dpr.12790
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/dpr.12790?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andreescu, Liviu & Gheorghiu, Radu & Zulean, Marian & Curaj, Adrian, 2013. "Understanding normative foresight outcomes: Scenario development and the ‘veil of ignorance’ effect," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(4), pages 711-722.
    2. Attila Havas & Doris Schartinger & Matthias Weber, 2010. "The impact of foresight on innovation policy-making: recent experiences and future perspectives," Research Evaluation, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(2), pages 91-104, June.
    3. Alessandro Fergnani & Thomas J. Chermack, 2021. "The resistance to scientific theory in futures and foresight, and what to do about it," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 3(3-4), September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bruno Brandão Fischer & Maxim Kotsemir & Dirk Meissner & Ekaterina Streltsova, 2020. "Patents for evidence-based decision-making and smart specialisation," The Journal of Technology Transfer, Springer, vol. 45(6), pages 1748-1774, December.
    2. Haegeman, Karel & Marinelli, Elisabetta & Scapolo, Fabiana & Ricci, Andrea & Sokolov, Alexander, 2013. "Quantitative and qualitative approaches in Future-oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): From combination to integration?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 386-397.
    3. Shardul Sharad Phadnis, 2021. "Advancing scenario planning theory: A commentary on Fergnani and Chermack, 2021," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 3(3-4), September.
    4. Havas, Attila & Weber, K. Matthias, 2017. "The 'fit' between forward-looking activities and the innovation policy governance sub-system: A framework to explore potential impacts," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 327-337.
    5. Prokopenko Olha & Omelyanenko Vitaliy, 2017. "Priority Selection Within National Innovation Strategy in Global Context," Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 31(1), pages 5-18, August.
    6. Weber, K. Matthias & Schaper-Rinkel, Petra, 2017. "European sectoral innovation foresight: Identifying emerging cross-sectoral patterns and policy issues," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 240-250.
    7. Andersen, Allan Dahl & Andersen, Per Dannemand, 2017. "Foresighting for inclusive development," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 227-236.
    8. Elizabeth Gibson & Tugrul Daim & Edwin Garces & Marina Dabic, 2018. "Technology Foresight: A Bibliometric Analysis to Identify Leading and Emerging Methods," Foresight and STI Governance (Foresight-Russia till No. 3/2015), National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 12(1), pages 6-24.
    9. Ekaterina Makarova & Anna Sokolova, 2012. "Foresight Evaluation: Lessons from Project Management," HSE Working papers WP BRP 01/MAN/2012, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    10. Anna Sokolova, 2013. "The integrated approach for Foresight evaluation: the Russian case," HSE Working papers WP BRP 20/STI/2013, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    11. Kayser, Victoria & Blind, Knut, 2017. "Extending the knowledge base of foresight: The contribution of text mining," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 208-215.
    12. Yusuke Kishita & Toshiki Kusaka & Yuji Mizuno & Yasushi Umeda, 2021. "Toward theory development in futures and foresight by drawing on design theory: A commentary on Fergnani and Chermack 2021," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 3(3-4), September.
    13. James Derbyshire & Mandeep Dhami & Ian Belton & Dilek Önkal, 2023. "The value of experiments in futures and foresight science as illustrated by the case of scenario planning," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 5(2), June.
    14. Aguirre-Bastos, Carlos & Weber, Matthias K., 2018. "Foresight for shaping national innovation systems in developing economies," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 186-196.
    15. Gerard P. Hodgkinson, 2022. "The conversation is great, but we need to talk more about theory, emotions, and ‘gut’ feelings: Commentary on Rowland and Spaniol (2021)," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 4(1), March.
    16. Metz, Ashley & Hartley, Paul, 2020. "Scenario development as valuation: Opportunities for reflexivity," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    17. Bonaccorsi, Andrea & Apreda, Riccardo & Fantoni, Gualtiero, 2020. "Expert biases in technology foresight. Why they are a problem and how to mitigate them," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    18. Alessandro Fergnani & John A. Sweeney, 2021. "Identity Wind Tunneling: A method for discovering an organization’s strategic identity using scenarios," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 3(3-4), September.
    19. Pombo-Juárez, Laura & Könnölä, Totti & Miles, Ian & Saritas, Ozcan & Schartinger, Doris & Amanatidou, Effie & Giesecke, Susanne, 2017. "Wiring up multiple layers of innovation ecosystems: Contemplations from Personal Health Systems Foresight," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 278-288.
    20. Wallin, Ida & Carlsson, Julia & Hansen, Hans Peter, 2016. "Envisioning future forested landscapes in Sweden – Revealing local-national discrepancies through participatory action research," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 25-40.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:devpol:v:42:y:2024:i:s1:n:e12790. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/odioruk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.