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Understanding normative foresight outcomes: Scenario development and the ‘veil of ignorance’ effect

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  • Andreescu, Liviu
  • Gheorghiu, Radu
  • Zulean, Marian
  • Curaj, Adrian

Abstract

The article approaches the question of the extent to and the ways in which the participatory construction of normative narratives in system foresight influences the shape of the outcomes. We discuss foresight as a system of inquiry into decision-making problems characterized by three key features — distancing, holism, and participation-intensiveness. We put forward the hypothesis that participative approaches to normative scenario development, which are structurally similar to a Rawlsian “original position” setup, generate a concern with the procedural arrangements governing the future world in the scenario, rather than simply with the events or states in the story of the future. This concern with “constitutional basics” may be regarded as an expression of participants' attempt to ensure that, in the future world, each party will have a seat at the table and a voice in the conversation. As a result, the construction of normative narratives may be interpreted in terms of an effort to smooth out tensions that are inevitably embedded in scenarios. The hypothesis is illustrated, in the article's final section, with a recent exercise on the future of higher education.

Suggested Citation

  • Andreescu, Liviu & Gheorghiu, Radu & Zulean, Marian & Curaj, Adrian, 2013. "Understanding normative foresight outcomes: Scenario development and the ‘veil of ignorance’ effect," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(4), pages 711-722.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:80:y:2013:i:4:p:711-722
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2012.09.013
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    Cited by:

    1. Gordon, Adam Vigdor, 2020. "Limits and longevity: A model for scenarios that influence the future," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    2. Ernst, Anna & Biß, Klaus H. & Shamon, Hawal & Schumann, Diana & Heinrichs, Heidi U., 2018. "Benefits and challenges of participatory methods in qualitative energy scenario development," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 245-257.
    3. Heinonen, Sirkka & Minkkinen, Matti & Karjalainen, Joni & Inayatullah, Sohail, 2017. "Testing transformative energy scenarios through causal layered analysis gaming," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 101-113.
    4. Fraser Reilly‐King & Colleen Duggan & Alex Wilner, 2024. "Foresight and futures thinking for international development co‐operation: Promises and pitfalls," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 42(S1), June.
    5. de Bruin, Jilske Olda & Kok, Kasper & Hoogstra-Klein, Marjanke Alberttine, 2017. "Exploring the potential of combining participative backcasting and exploratory scenarios for robust strategies: Insights from the Dutch forest sector," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(P2), pages 269-282.
    6. Metz, Ashley & Hartley, Paul, 2020. "Scenario development as valuation: Opportunities for reflexivity," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    7. Bonaccorsi, Andrea & Apreda, Riccardo & Fantoni, Gualtiero, 2020. "Expert biases in technology foresight. Why they are a problem and how to mitigate them," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    8. Dufva, Mikko & Ahlqvist, Toni, 2015. "Knowledge creation dynamics in foresight: A knowledge typology and exploratory method to analyse foresight workshops," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 251-268.
    9. Ramboarison-Lalao, Lovanirina & Gannouni, Kais, 2019. "Liberated firm, a leverage of well-being and technological change? A prospective study based on the scenario method," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 129-139.
    10. Wallin, Ida & Carlsson, Julia & Hansen, Hans Peter, 2016. "Envisioning future forested landscapes in Sweden – Revealing local-national discrepancies through participatory action research," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 25-40.
    11. Elizabeth Gibson & Tugrul Daim & Edwin Garces & Marina Dabic, 2018. "Technology Foresight: A Bibliometric Analysis to Identify Leading and Emerging Methods," Foresight and STI Governance (Foresight-Russia till No. 3/2015), National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 12(1), pages 6-24.

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