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For Better Or For Worse, But How About A Recession?

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  • JEREMY ARKES
  • YU-CHU SHEN

Abstract

type="main" xml:lang="en"> In light of the current economic crisis, we estimate hazard models of divorce to determine how state and national unemployment rates affect the likelihood of a divorce or separation. With data in the United States over the 1978–2008 period from the 1979 NLSY, we find some evidence indicating that a higher unemployment rate increases the risk of a marriage ending for couples in years 6–10 of marriage (suggesting counter-cyclical divorce/separation probabilities) but has no significant effect for couples in years 1–5 of marriage and those married longer than 10 years. The estimates are generally stronger in magnitude when using national instead of state unemployment rates and when considering just divorces rather than the first observed divorce or separation. (JEL J12)

Suggested Citation

  • Jeremy Arkes & Yu-Chu Shen, 2014. "For Better Or For Worse, But How About A Recession?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 32(2), pages 275-287, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:coecpo:v:32:y:2014:i:2:p:275-287
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/coep.12029
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Rafael González-Val & Miriam Marcén, 2015. "Regional unemployment, marriage, and divorce," Working Papers 2015/38, Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB).
    2. Sheena Murray, 2017. "Urban Density and the Procyclicality of Divorce," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(1), pages 411-422.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J12 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Marriage; Marital Dissolution; Family Structure

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