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House Price Shocks and Individual Divorce Risk in the United States

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  • Jennifer Klein

    (University of Colorado Boulder)

Abstract

Households in the United States hold a significant portion of their total wealth in owner-occupied housing. Thus, changes in housing prices may have an important impact on the marital surplus the household enjoys. What happens to marriages of homeowners when there is a shock to housing prices? This question was addressed using household data from the panel study of income dynamics (PSID) and a quarterly MSA level house price index from the Federal Housing Finance Agency, controlling for local labor market conditions. House price shocks were calculated as the cumulative sum of residuals of a second order autoregressive model from the previous four years. Results showed that positive house price shocks stabilized marriage for all couples. A one standard deviation increase in the house price shock decreased the risk of divorce in the following year by about 13–18%. The results were driven by the younger cohort of households in the PSID, those with lower educational attainment, and those with relatively low family income. The findings are discussed in the context of theories on changes in marital surplus, and changes in the transaction costs surrounding divorce.

Suggested Citation

  • Jennifer Klein, 2017. "House Price Shocks and Individual Divorce Risk in the United States," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 38(4), pages 628-649, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:jfamec:v:38:y:2017:i:4:d:10.1007_s10834-017-9532-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s10834-017-9532-9
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    2. Zheng Chang & Weifeng Li & Mi Diao & Xin Li, 2024. "Marriage entry, divorce and reconciliation: The unintended consequence of the home purchase restriction policy in China," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-10, December.
    3. Jiaping Zhang & Mingwang Cheng & Xinyu Wei & Xiaomei Gong, 2018. "Does Mobile Phone Penetration Affect Divorce Rate? Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-19, October.
    4. Jeffrey Dew, 2021. "Ten Years of Marriage and Cohabitation Research in the Journal of Family and Economic Issues," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 42(1), pages 52-61, July.
    5. Andrew Grant & Steve Satchell, 2019. "Endogenous divorce risk and investment," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 32(3), pages 845-876, July.
    6. Kim, Yeorim & Mastrogiacomo, Mauro & Hochguertel, Stefan & Bloemen, Hans, 2022. "Till Debt Do Us Part: Strategic Divorces and a Test of Moral Hazard," IZA Discussion Papers 15446, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Mohammad Reza Farzanegan & Hassan F. Gholipour, 2018. "Does Gold Price Matter for Divorce Rate in Iran?," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 39(4), pages 588-599, December.
    8. Mingbo Zheng & Yin E Chen & Gen-Fu Feng & Jun Wen & Chun-Ping Chang, 2018. "Divorce And Housing Price In 31 Provinces Of China," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 21(2), pages 161-176, October.
    9. Bellido, Héctor & Marcén, Miriam, 2020. "On the relationship between body mass index and marital dissolution," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 326-340.

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