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Interactions Between Welfare Caseloads And Local Labor Markets

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  • BRIAN C. HILL
  • MATTHEW N. MURRAY

Abstract

This paper provides an empirical examination of interactions between welfare caseloads and local labor markets using data on caseload stocks, entries, and exits. Granger‐causality tests show that unemployment rates Granger‐cause caseload activity but caseload activity does not Granger‐cause unemployment rates. The results also reveal differential dynamics between caseloads and labor market conditions for rural versus metropolitan markets. Several models of one‐way association between caseload activity and unemployment rates are presented. The results show that higher unemployment rates are positively associated with welfare caseloads and entries and negatively related to exits. (JEL I38, R23)

Suggested Citation

  • Brian C. Hill & Matthew N. Murray, 2008. "Interactions Between Welfare Caseloads And Local Labor Markets," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 26(4), pages 539-554, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:coecpo:v:26:y:2008:i:4:p:539-554
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1465-7287.2008.00103.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Hayashi, Masayoshi, 2014. "Forecasting welfare caseloads: The case of the Japanese public assistance program," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 105-114.
    2. Masayoshi Hayashi, 2017. "Do Central Grants Affect Welfare Caseloads? Evidence from Public Assistance in Japan," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1064, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

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