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Taxes And Growth: Testing The Neoclassical And Endogenous Growth Models

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  • GEORGIOS KARRAS

Abstract

Changes in the tax rate alter real growth permanently in an endogenous growth model, but only temporarily in a neoclassical model, where the only permanent effect is a decrease in the steady‐state level of output per capita. Using data from the 1960'1992 period for a panel of 11 Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development economies, this paper's empirical results support the following conclusions. First, consistent with the tax smoothing hypothesis, tax rates have exhibited significant persistent changes while output growth rates have not. Second, a higher tax rate permanently reduces the level of output but has no permanent effects on the output growth rate. These findings are inconsistent with endogenous growth mechanisms and suggest that the relationship between output and the tax rate is best described by the neoclassical growth model. (JEL E62, 041)

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  • Georgios Karras, 1999. "Taxes And Growth: Testing The Neoclassical And Endogenous Growth Models," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 17(2), pages 177-188, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:coecpo:v:17:y:1999:i:2:p:177-188
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1465-7287.1999.tb00673.x
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    2. Nazila Alinaghi & W. Robert Reed, 2021. "Taxes and Economic Growth in OECD Countries: A Meta-analysis," Public Finance Review, , vol. 49(1), pages 3-40, January.
    3. Marc Tomljanovich, 2004. "The Role of State Fiscal Policy in State Economic Growth," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 22(3), pages 318-330, July.
    4. Durusu-Ciftci, Dilek & Gokmenoglu, Korhan K. & Yetkiner, Hakan, 2018. "The heterogeneous impact of taxation on economic development: New insights from a panel cointegration approach," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 503-513.
    5. Norman Gemmell & Richard Kneller & Ismael Sanz, 2011. "The Timing and Persistence of Fiscal Policy Impacts on Growth: Evidence from OECD Countries," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(550), pages 33-58, February.
    6. Richard Kneller & Florian Misch, 2017. "A Survey On The Output Effects Of Tax Reforms From A Policy Perspective," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 35(1), pages 165-192, January.
    7. Gemmell Norman & Au Joey, 2013. "Do Smaller Governments Raise the Level or Growth of Output? A Review of Recent Evidence," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 64(2), pages 85-116, August.
    8. Palić Irena & Žmuk Berislav & Grofelnik Barbara, 2017. "The long-run impact of personal income taxation on economic development: Evidence from Croatia," Croatian Review of Economic, Business and Social Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 3(1), pages 35-44, June.
    9. Luoto, Jani, 2011. "Aggregate infrastructure capital stock and long-run growth: Evidence from Finnish data," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 181-191, March.
    10. Chokri Terzi & Anis El Ammari & Ali Bouchrika & Khalil Mhadhbi, 2017. "Optimal Taxation and Economic Growth in Tunisia: Short and Long Run Cointegration Analysis," Working Papers hal-01541131, HAL.
    11. Margit Schratzenstaller-Altzinger, 2006. "Teilstudie 12: Wachstumsimpulse durch die öffentliche Hand," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 27451.
    12. Margit Schratzenstaller-Altzinger, 2007. "WIFO-Weißbuch: Wachstumsimpulse durch die öffentliche Hand," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 80(6), pages 509-526, June.
    13. Norman Gemmell & Joey Au, 2013. "Government size, fiscal policy and the level and growth of output: a review of recent evidence," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(2), pages 203-229.
    14. Yadawananda Neog & Achal Kumar Gaur, 2020. "Tax structure and economic growth: a study of selected Indian states," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 9(1), pages 1-12, December.
    15. Daniel G. Swaine, 1999. "Is the U.S. economy characterized by endogenous growth?: a time-series test of two stochastic growth models," Working Papers 99-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    16. Norman Gemmell & Joey Au, 2013. "Government size, fiscal policy and the level and growth of output: a review of recent evidence," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(2), pages 203-229.
    17. Jayasooriya, Sujith, 2020. "Macroeconometric Approach: Optimal Taxation Policies for Economic Growth in Emerging Asia," MPRA Paper 100748, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Romero-Ávila, Diego & Strauch, Rolf, 2008. "Public finances and long-term growth in Europe: Evidence from a panel data analysis," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 172-191, March.
    19. Moore, Winston, 2008. "The Responsiveness of Taxable Income to Changes in Marginal Tax Rates in Barbados," MPRA Paper 21583, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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