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Australia's Fiscal Space: The Role of Public Investment

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  • Begoña Domínguez
  • John Quiggin

Abstract

How large is Australia's fiscal space? Blanchard (2019) shows that as long as the real interest rate R $R$ is below the real growth rate G $G$, a government can sustain a positive primary deficit with a constant (or even declining) ratio of public debt to GDP. In this article, we explain the neutral real interest rate and the reasons for its decline. Then, we discuss the results of a companion paper, Domínguez and Quiggin (2022), in which we quantify the fiscal space for Australia and find that a permanent increase in the primary deficit can be afforded up to reaching a debt to GDP ratio of 79 per cent. Furthermore, this so‐called ‘free lunch’ in the fiscal space can be expanded if debt is used to finance public investment.

Suggested Citation

  • Begoña Domínguez & John Quiggin, 2022. "Australia's Fiscal Space: The Role of Public Investment," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 55(3), pages 383-388, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ausecr:v:55:y:2022:i:3:p:383-388
    DOI: 10.1111/1467-8462.12481
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March.
    2. Olivier J Blanchard, 2019. "Public Debt: Fiscal and Welfare Costs in a Time of Low Interest Rates," Policy Briefs PB19-2, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    3. Olivier Blanchard, 2019. "Public Debt and Low Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(4), pages 1197-1229, April.
    4. Atif R. Mian & Ludwig Straub & Amir Sufi, 2022. "A Goldilocks Theory of Fiscal Deficits," NBER Working Papers 29707, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Gabriel M Ahlfeldt & Arne Feddersen, 2018. "From periphery to core: measuring agglomeration effects using high-speed rail," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 18(2), pages 355-390.
    6. Carmignani, Fabrizio, 2015. "Can public expenditure stabilize output? Multipliers and policy interdependence in Queensland and Australia," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 69-81.
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