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Unemployment Hysteresis in Australian States and Territories: Evidence from Panel Data Unit Root Tests

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  • Russell Smyth

Abstract

This article tests for hysteresis by applying panel data unit root tests to quarterly unemployment rates for Australian states and territories between 1982:2 and 2002:1. Panel tests proposed by Levin and Lin (1992) using ordinary least squares and O'Connell (1998) using feasible generalised least squares (which assume that under the alternative hypothesis of stationarity, all labour markets revert to the natural rate at the same speed) provide evidence in support of the natural rate hypothesis. However, the panel test proposed by Im, Pesaran and Shin (1997), which does not assume that all cross‐sectional units converge towards the equilibrium value at the same speed under the alternative and is therefore less restrictive than the other two panel tests, finds evidence of hysteresis. Given the advantages of the Im et al. (1997) test over the other two panel tests the results can be interpreted as being consistent with the existence of hysteresis in unemployment

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  • Russell Smyth, 2003. "Unemployment Hysteresis in Australian States and Territories: Evidence from Panel Data Unit Root Tests," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 36(2), pages 181-192, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ausecr:v:36:y:2003:i:2:p:181-192
    DOI: 10.1111/1467-8462.00278
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    1. Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen & Jackman, Richard, 2005. "Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199279173.
    2. Summers, Peter M., 2004. "Bayesian evidence on the structure of unemployment," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 299-306, June.
    3. Robert Dixon & David Shepherd, 2001. "Trends and Cycles in Australian State and Territory Unemployment Rates," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 77(238), pages 252-269, September.
    4. Cross,Rod Preface by-Name:Blanchard,Olivier (ed.), 1995. "The Natural Rate of Unemployment," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521483308, January.
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