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Testing for Cointegration Using the Johansen Methodology when Variables are Near-Integrated

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  • Pär Österholm
  • Erik Hjalmarsson

Abstract

We investigate the properties of Johansen's (1988, 1991) maximum eigenvalue and trace tests for cointegration under the empirically relevant situation of near-integrated variables. Using Monte Carlo techniques, we show that in a system with near-integrated variables, the probability of reaching an erroneous conclusion regarding the cointegrating rank of the system is generally substantially higher than the nominal size. The risk of concluding that completely unrelated series are cointegrated is therefore non-negligible. The spurious rejection rate can be reduced by performing additional tests of restrictions on the cointegrating vector(s), although it is still substantially larger than the nominal size.

Suggested Citation

  • Pär Österholm & Erik Hjalmarsson, 2007. "Testing for Cointegration Using the Johansen Methodology when Variables are Near-Integrated," IMF Working Papers 2007/141, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2007/141
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    Keywords

    WP; integrating vector;

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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