Rationality of analysts' earnings forecasts: evidence from dow 30 companies
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
DOI: 10.1080/09603100500426564
Download full text from publisher
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
- Lakonishok, Josef & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1994.
"Contrarian Investment, Extrapolation, and Risk,"
Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1541-1578, December.
- Josef Lakonishok & Robert W. Vishny & Andrei Shleifer, 1993. "Contrarian Investment, Extrapolation, and Risk," NBER Working Papers 4360, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lakonishok, Josef & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1994. "Contrarian Investment, Extrapolation, and Risk," Scholarly Articles 30721347, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Lakonishok, Josef & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W., 1993. "Contrarian Investment, Extrapolation, and Risk," Working Papers 84, The University of Chicago Booth School of Business, George J. Stigler Center for the Study of the Economy and the State.
- Harrison Hong & Terence Lim & Jeremy C. Stein, 2000.
"Bad News Travels Slowly: Size, Analyst Coverage, and the Profitability of Momentum Strategies,"
Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(1), pages 265-295, February.
- Harrison Hong & Terence Lim & Jeremy C. Stein, 1998. "Bad News Travels Slowly: Size, Analyst Coverage and the Profitability of Momentum Strategies," NBER Working Papers 6553, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Brown, Lawrence D., 1991. "Forecast selection when all forecasts are not equally recent," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 349-356, November.
- John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991.
"Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know about Unit Roots,"
NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 141-220,
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Campbell, John & Perron, Pierre, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know about Unit Roots," Scholarly Articles 3374863, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots," NBER Technical Working Papers 0100, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Campbell, J.Y. & Perron, P., 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomics should know about unit roots," Papers 360, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
- Lin, Hsiou-wei & McNichols, Maureen F., 1998. "Underwriting relationships, analysts' earnings forecasts and investment recommendations," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 101-127, February.
- Karl B. Diether & Christopher J. Malloy & Anna Scherbina, 2002. "Differences of Opinion and the Cross Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2113-2141, October.
- Amitabh Dugar & Siva Nathan, 1995. "The Effect of Investment Banking Relationships on Financial Analysts' Earnings Forecasts and Investment Recommendations," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 12(1), pages 131-160, September.
- Womack, Kent L, 1996. "Do Brokerage Analysts' Recommendations Have Investment Value?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 137-167, March.
- Michael P. Keane & David E. Runkle, 1998. "Are Financial Analysts' Forecasts of Corporate Profits Rational?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(4), pages 768-805, August.
- Ackert, Lucy F & Hunter, William C, 1995.
"Rational Expectations and Security Analysts' Earnings Forecasts,"
The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 30(3), pages 427-443, August.
- Lucy F. Ackert & William C. Hunter, 1992. "Rational expectations and security analysts' earnings forecasts," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 92-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Aggarwal, Raj & Mohanty, Sunil & Song, Frank, 1995. "Are Survey Forecasts of Macroeconomic Variables Rational?," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 68(1), pages 99-119, January.
- Willard T. Carleton & Carl R. Chen & Thomas I. Steiner, 1998. "Optimism Biases among Brokerage and Non-Brokerage Firms' Equity Recommendations: Agency Costs in the Investment Industry," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 27(1), Spring.
- Bagnoli, Mark & Beneish, Messod D. & Watts, Susan G., 1999. "Whisper forecasts of quarterly earnings per share," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 27-50, November.
- Butler, Kc & Lang, Lhp, 1991. "The Forecast Accuracy Of Individual Analysts - Evidence Of Systematic Optimism And Pessimism," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 150-156.
- De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard H, 1990. "Do Security Analysts Overreact?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 52-57, May.
- Banerjee, Anindya, et al, 1986. "Exploring Equilibrium Relationships in Econometrics through Static Models: Some Monte Carlo Evidence," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 253-277, August.
- Lys, Thomas & Sohn, Sungkyu, 1990. "The association between revisions of financial analysts' earnings forecasts and security-price changes," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 341-363, December.
- Scharfstein, David S & Stein, Jeremy C, 1990.
"Herd Behavior and Investment,"
American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 465-479, June.
- Scharfstein, David. & Stein, Jeremy C., 1988. "Herd behavior and investment," Working papers WP 2062-88., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Lucy F. Ackert & William C. Hunter, 1994.
"Rational Expectations And The Dynamic Adjustment Of Security Analysts' Forecasts To New Information,"
Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 17(3), pages 387-401, September.
- Lucy F. Ackert & William C. Hunter, 1993. "Rational expectations and the dynamic adjustment of security analysts' forecasts to new information," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 93-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- La Porta, Rafael, 1996. "Expectations and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1715-1742, December.
- Søren Johansen & Katarina Juselius, 1988. "Hypothesis Testing for Cointegration Vectors: with Application to the Demand for Money in Denmark and Finland," Discussion Papers 88-05, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
- Lucy F. Ackert & George Athanassakos, 1997. "Prior Uncertainty, Analyst Bias, And Subsequent Abnormal Returns," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 20(2), pages 263-273, June.
- Terence Lim, 2001. "Rationality and Analysts' Forecast Bias," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 369-385, February.
- Degeorge, Francois & Patel, Jayendu & Zeckhauser, Richard, 1999.
"Earnings Management to Exceed Thresholds,"
The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72(1), pages 1-33, January.
- François Degeorge & Jayendu Patel & Richard Zeckhauser, 1997. "Earnings Management to Exceed Thresholds," Working Papers hal-00605613, HAL.
- Degeorge, François & Patel, U & Zeckhauser, Richard, 1998. "Earnings Management to Exceed Thresholds," CEPR Discussion Papers 1790, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Brous, Peter Alan, 1992. "Common Stock Offerings and Earnings Expectations: A Test of the Release of Unfavorable Information," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1517-1536, September.
- Brown, Lawrence D. & Hagerman, Robert L. & Griffin, Paul A. & Zmijewski, Mark E., 1987. "An evaluation of alternative proxies for the market's assessment of unexpected earnings," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 159-193, July.
- Welch, Ivo, 2000. "Herding among security analysts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 369-396, December.
- Hirst, De & Koonce, L & Simko, Pj, 1995. "Investor Reactions To Financial Analysts Research Reports," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(2), pages 335-351.
- Klein, April, 1990. "A direct test of the cognitive bias theory of share price reversals," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 155-166, July.
- Michaely, Roni & Womack, Kent L, 1999. "Conflict of Interest and the Credibility of Underwriter Analyst Recommendations," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(4), pages 653-686.
- Hopwood, Ws & Mckeown, Jc, 1981. "An Evaluation Of Univariate Time-Series Earnings Models And Their Generalization To A Single Input Transfer-Function," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(2), pages 313-322.
- Brous, Peter A. & Kini, Omesh, 1993. "A reexamination of analysts' earnings forecasts for takeover targets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 201-225, April.
- Fried, Dov & Givoly, Dan, 1982. "Financial analysts' forecasts of earnings : A better surrogate for market expectations," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 85-107, October.
- McNichols, M & O'Brien, PC, 1997. "Self-selection and analyst coverage," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35, pages 167-199.
- Brown, Lawrence D & Rozeff, Michael S, 1978. "The Superiority of Analyst Forecasts as Measures of Expectations: Evidence from Earnings," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 33(1), pages 1-16, March.
- Collins, Wa & Hopwood, Ws, 1980. "A Multivariate-Analysis Of Annual Earnings Forecasts Generated From Quarterly Forecasts Of Financial Analysts And Univariate Time-Series Models," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(2), pages 390-406.
- Stickel, Se, 1990. "Predicting Individual Analyst Earnings Forecasts," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(2), pages 409-417.
- Banerjee, Anindya & Hendry, David F, 1992. "Testing Integration and Cointegration: An Overview," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 225-255, August.
- Stock, James H, 1987. "Asymptotic Properties of Least Squares Estimators of Cointegrating Vectors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(5), pages 1035-1056, September.
- J. G. Cragg & Burton G. Malkiel, 1968. "The Consensus And Accuracy Of Some Predictions Of The Growth Of Corporate Earnings," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(1), pages 67-84, March.
- John C. Easterwood & Stacey R. Nutt, 1999. "Inefficiency in Analysts' Earnings Forecasts: Systematic Misreaction or Systematic Optimism?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(5), pages 1777-1797, October.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
- Fabrizio Mattesini & Leonardo Becchetti, 2009.
"The stock market and the Fed,"
Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(2), pages 99-110.
- Fabrizio Mattesini & Leonardo Becchetti, 2008. "The stock market and the Fed," CEIS Research Paper 113, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 14 Jul 2008.
- de Jong, Pieter J. & Apilado, Vince P., 2009. "The changing relationship between earnings expectations and earnings for value and growth stocks during Reg FD," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 435-442, February.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Kothari, S. P., 2001. "Capital markets research in accounting," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-3), pages 105-231, September.
- Ramnath, Sundaresh & Rock, Steve & Shane, Philip, 2008. "The financial analyst forecasting literature: A taxonomy with suggestions for further research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 34-75.
- So, Eric C., 2013. "A new approach to predicting analyst forecast errors: Do investors overweight analyst forecasts?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(3), pages 615-640.
- Friesen, Geoffrey & Weller, Paul A., 2006. "Quantifying cognitive biases in analyst earnings forecasts," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 333-365, November.
- Basu, Sudipta & Markov, Stanimir, 2004. "Loss function assumptions in rational expectations tests on financial analysts' earnings forecasts," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 171-203, December.
- Abarbanell, Jeffery & Lehavy, Reuven, 2003. "Biased forecasts or biased earnings? The role of reported earnings in explaining apparent bias and over/underreaction in analysts' earnings forecasts," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1-3), pages 105-146, December.
- Hou, Kewei & van Dijk, Mathijs A. & Zhang, Yinglei, 2012.
"The implied cost of capital: A new approach,"
Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 504-526.
- Hou, Kewei & van Dijk, Mathijs A. & Zhang, Yinglei, 2010. "The Implied Cost of Capital: A New Approach," Working Paper Series 2010-4, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
- Anna M. Cianci & Satoris S. Culbertson, 2010. "The Impact of Motivational and Cognitive Factors on Optimistic Earnings Forecasts," Chapters, in: Brian Bruce (ed.), Handbook of Behavioral Finance, chapter 11, Edward Elgar Publishing.
- Lorenzo Casavecchia & Gerhard Hambusch & Justin Hitchen, 2022. "The impact of analyst forecast errors on fundamental indexation: the Australian evidence," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 23(5), pages 400-418, September.
- Brown, Philip & Clarke, Alex & How, Janice C. Y. & Lim, Kadir J. P., 2002. "Analysts' dividend forecasts," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 371-391, September.
- Andrea S Au, 2007. "Extracting information from European analyst forecasts," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 8(4), pages 228-237, November.
- Daniel, Kent & Hirshleifer, David & Teoh, Siew Hong, 2002. "Investor psychology in capital markets: evidence and policy implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 139-209, January.
- Charles G. Ham & Zachary R. Kaplan & Zawadi R. Lemayian, 2022. "Rationalizing forecast inefficiency," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 313-343, March.
- Amitabh Dugar & Siva Nathan, 1995. "The Effect of Investment Banking Relationships on Financial Analysts' Earnings Forecasts and Investment Recommendations," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 12(1), pages 131-160, September.
- Pasaribu, Rowland Bismark Fernando, 2010. "Anomali Overreaction di bursa efek Indonesia: Penelitian Saham LQ-45 [Overreaction Anomaly in Indonesia Stock Exchange: Case Study of LQ-45 Stocks]," MPRA Paper 36998, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Zitzewitz, Eric, 2001. "Measuring Herding and Exaggeration by Equity Analysts and Other Opinion Sellers," Research Papers 1802, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
- Ciccone, Stephen J., 2005. "Trends in analyst earnings forecast properties," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 1-22.
- Ka Wai Choi & Xiaomeng Chen & Sue Wright & Hai Wu, 2014. "Analysts' Forecasts Following Forced CEO Changes," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 50(2), pages 146-173, June.
- John A. Doukas & Chansog (Francis) Kim & Christos Pantzalis, 2002. "A Test of the Errors‐in‐Expectations Explanation of the Value/Glamour Stock Returns Performance: Evidence from Analysts' Forecasts," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2143-2165, October.
- Philip L. Baird, 2020. "Do investors recognize biases in securities analysts’ forecasts?," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(4), pages 623-634, October.
Corrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:16:y:2006:i:12:p:915-929. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAFE20 .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.