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Explanators of Local Government Distress

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  • Stewart Jones
  • R. G. Walker

Abstract

This article develops a statistical model to explain sources of distress in local government. Whereas ‘financial distress’ in the private sector has been equated with a failure to meet financial commitments, here ‘distress’ is interpreted as an inability to maintain pre‐existing levels of services to the community. Since the late 1990s local councils in an Australian state (New South Wales) have been required to estimate the cost of restoring infrastructure assets to a satisfactory condition (a requirement which predates that form of reporting on infrastructure condition introduced as an option in U.S. GASB 34). Information regarding the cost of restoring infrastructure is used in this study as a proxy for levels of distress (in contrast to the binary classification that characterizes much of prior private sector financial distress research). Data regarding service levels for a sample of 161 councils for 2001 and 2002 were used and a multiple regression model was estimated and interpreted. The main findings were that the degree of distress in local councils is positively associated with the size of the population they serve and the size and composition of their revenues. Road maintenance costs featured prominently in results, as higher road program costs were associated with higher levels of distress (particularly when interacted with other variables). However, the revenue generating capacity of councils had the strongest statistical impact on local government distress. Councils with lower percentages of rates revenue to total revenue and lower ordinary revenue levels to total assets were typically identified as more distressed. However, no systematic evidence was found that rural councils have higher distress levels than urban councils (i.e., both rural and urban councils serving larger populations were relatively more distressed than councils serving smaller populations). It is suggested that the model (or modifications thereof) may serve as an early warning system for those monitoring the circumstances and performance of local governments.

Suggested Citation

  • Stewart Jones & R. G. Walker, 2007. "Explanators of Local Government Distress," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 43(3), pages 396-418, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:abacus:v:43:y:2007:i:3:p:396-418
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-6281.2007.00238.x
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    1. R. G. Walker, 2009. "Public Sector Consolidated Statements—an Assessment," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 45(2), pages 171-220, June.
    2. Khushbu Agrawal & Chanchal Chatterjee, 2015. "Earnings Management and Financial Distress: Evidence from India," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 16(5_suppl), pages 140-154, October.
    3. Jarmila SEBESTOVA & Ingrid MAJEROVA & Irena SZAROWSKA, 2018. "Indicators For Assessing The Financial Condition And Municipality Management," REVISTA ADMINISTRATIE SI MANAGEMENT PUBLIC, Faculty of Administration and Public Management, Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania, vol. 2018(31), pages 97-110, December.
    4. Aldona Standar & Agnieszka Kozera, 2020. "Identifying the Financial Risk Factors of Excessive Indebtedness of Rural Communes in Poland," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-25, January.
    5. Joseph Drew & Brian Dollery, 2016. "A Factor Analytic Assessment of Financial Sustainability: The Case of New South Wales Local Government," Australian Accounting Review, CPA Australia, vol. 26(2), pages 132-140, June.
    6. Elena GORI & Silvia FISSI, 2014. "Scoring The Default Risk Of Local Authority," Journal of Public Administration, Finance and Law, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 5(5), pages 7-25, June.
    7. Guyot, Alexis & Doumpos, Michael & Zopounidis, Constantin, 2016. "A novel multi-attribute benchmarking approach for assessing the financial performance of local governments: Empirical evidence from FranceAuthor-Name: Galariotis, Emilios," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 248(1), pages 301-317.
    8. Michal Svoboda, 2015. "Construction of Municipalities´ Financial Health Indicator [Konstrukce ukazatele finančního zdraví municipálních organizací]," Český finanční a účetní časopis, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2015(4), pages 150-160.
    9. Cohen, Sandra & Doumpos, Michael & Neofytou, Evi & Zopounidis, Constantin, 2012. "Assessing financial distress where bankruptcy is not an option: An alternative approach for local municipalities," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 218(1), pages 270-279.
    10. Lotta-Maria Sinervo, 2020. "Financial Sustainability of Local Governments in the Eyes of Finnish Local Politicians," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-16, December.
    11. Mariola Kapidani, 2018. "Financial Condition Analysis of Municipal Units in Albania," MIC 2018: Managing Global Diversities; Proceedings of the Joint International Conference, Bled, Slovenia, 30 May–2 June 2018,, University of Primorska Press.
    12. Emanuele Padovani & Francesco Porcelli & Alberto Zanardi, 2024. "The determinants of the financial distress of Italian municipalities: How much is it due to inadequate resources?," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 31(6), pages 1494-1533, December.
    13. Wildmer Daniel Gregori & Luigi Marattin, 2019. "Determinants of fiscal distress in Italian municipalities," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 1269-1281, April.
    14. Antulov-Fantulin, Nino & Lagravinese, Raffaele & Resce, Giuliano, 2021. "Predicting bankruptcy of local government: A machine learning approach," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 681-699.

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