IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bkr/journl/v78y2019i2p43-66.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Impact of the Global Financial Safety Net on Emerging Market Bond Spreads

Author

Listed:
  • Jenny Kilp

    (Deutsche Bundesbank; Embassy of the Federal Republic of Germany in South Africa)

  • Vafa Anvari

    (South African Reserve Bank)

  • Samantha Springfield

    (South African Reserve Bank)

  • Crystal Roberts

    (South African Reserve Bank)

Abstract

Following the 2007-2008 global financial crisis, it became evident that there was a need for a strengthening of the global financial safety net (GFSN). The manner in which this should be achieved became a polarising issue of debate in international institutions such as the International Monetary Fund and the G20. Empirical evidence concerning the impact of the GFSN remains scarce. Therefore, this paper seeks to contribute to the debate by investigating the potential impacts that the various layers of the GFSN can have on sovereign borrowing costs in emerging markets. This analysis first reviews the common methodologies that can be found in the literature concerned with identifying determinants of foreign currency sovereign spreads in emerging markets. The analysis is then expanded to include elements of the GFSN. The results indicate that whilst the liquidity buffers provided by the overall GFSN appear to lower sovereign spreads, the impact of individual layers of the safety net is more ambiguous.

Suggested Citation

  • Jenny Kilp & Vafa Anvari & Samantha Springfield & Crystal Roberts, 2019. "The Impact of the Global Financial Safety Net on Emerging Market Bond Spreads," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 78(2), pages 43-66, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bkr:journl:v:78:y:2019:i:2:p:43-66
    DOI: 10.31477/rjmf.201902.43
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://rjmf.econs.online/upload/iblock/1e2/RJMF_78-02_ENG_Kilp.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.31477/rjmf.201902.43?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dominguez, Kathryn M.E. & Hashimoto, Yuko & Ito, Takatoshi, 2012. "International reserves and the global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 388-406.
    2. Eduardo Fernández-Arias & Eduardo Levy-Yeyati, 2012. "Global Financial Safety Nets: Where Do We Go from Here?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(1), pages 37-68, April.
    3. Patrick McGuire & Martijn A Schrijvers, 2003. "Common factors in emerging market spreads," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    4. Eduardo Fernández-Arias & Eduardo Levy-Yeyati, 2012. "Global Financial Safety Nets: Where Do We Go from Here?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(1), pages 37-68, 04.
    5. Mr. Fabio Comelli, 2012. "Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads: Estimation and Back-testing," IMF Working Papers 2012/212, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Levy Yeyati, Eduardo, 2008. "The cost of reserves," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 39-42, July.
    7. Maltritz, Dominik, 2012. "Determinants of sovereign yield spreads in the Eurozone: A Bayesian approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 657-672.
    8. Edd Denbee & Carsten Jung & Francesco Patern�, 2016. "Stitching together the global financial safety net," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 322, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    9. Scheubel, Beatrice & Herrala, Risto & Stracca, Livio, 2016. "What do we know about the global financial safety net? Data, rationale and possible evolution," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145676, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    10. Essers, Dennis & Ide, Stefaan, 2019. "The IMF and precautionary lending: An empirical evaluation of the selectivity and effectiveness of the Flexible Credit Line," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 25-61.
    11. Sebastian Edwards, 1983. "LDC's Foreign Borrowing and Default Risk: An Empirical Investigation," NBER Working Papers 1172, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Stracca, Livio & Scheubel, Beatrice, 2016. "What do we know about the global financial safety net? Rationale, data and possible evolution," Occasional Paper Series 177, European Central Bank.
    13. De Grauwe, Paul & Ji, Yuemei, 2013. "Self-fulfilling crises in the Eurozone: An empirical test," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 15-36.
    14. Aizenman, Joshua & Jinjarak, Yothin & Park, Donghyun, 2011. "International reserves and swap lines: Substitutes or complements?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 5-18, January.
    15. Claudia Maurini, 2017. "The IMF Safety Net and emerging markets' sovereign spreads," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 370, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    16. Mr. Balazs Csonto & Mr. Iryna V. Ivaschenko, 2013. "Determinants of Sovereign Bond Spreads in Emerging Markets: Local Fundamentals and Global Factors vs. Ever-Changing Misalignments," IMF Working Papers 2013/164, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Comelli, Fabio, 2012. "Emerging market sovereign bond spreads: Estimation and back-testing," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 598-625.
    18. Iva Petrova & Mr. Michael G. Papaioannou & Mr. Dimitri Bellas, 2010. "Determinants of Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads: Fundamentals vs Financial Stress," IMF Working Papers 2010/281, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Scheubel, Beatrice & Stracca, Livio, 2019. "What do we know about the global financial safety net? A new comprehensive data set," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    20. Ulrich Volz, 2016. "Toward the Development of a Global Financial Safety Net or a Segmentation of the Global Financial Architecture?," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(10), pages 2221-2237, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jenny Kilp & Vafa Anvari & Samantha Springfield & Crystal Roberts, 2018. "The Impact of the Global Financial Safety Net on Emerging Market Bond Spreads," Working Papers 8655, South African Reserve Bank.
    2. Scheubel, Beatrice & Stracca, Livio & Tille, Cédric, 2019. "Taming the global financial cycle: What role for the global financial safety net?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 160-182.
    3. Essers, Dennis & Ide, Stefaan, 2019. "The IMF and precautionary lending: An empirical evaluation of the selectivity and effectiveness of the Flexible Credit Line," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 25-61.
    4. Dachraoui, Hajer & Smida, Mounir & Sebri, Maamar, 2020. "Role of capital flight as a driver of sovereign bond spreads in Latin American countries," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 15-33.
    5. Agur, Itai & Chan, Melissa & Goswami, Mangal & Sharma, Sunil, 2019. "On international integration of emerging sovereign bond markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 347-363.
    6. Gunther Capelle-Blancard & Patricia Crifo & Marc-Arthur Diaye & Rim Oueghlissi & Bert Scholtens, 2016. "Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) performance and sovereign bond spreads: an empirical analysis of OECD countries," Working Papers hal-01401718, HAL.
    7. Jane Mpapalika & Christopher Malikane, 2019. "The Determinants of Sovereign Risk Premium in African Countries," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-20, February.
    8. Kocsis, Zalan & Monostori, Zoltan, 2016. "The role of country-specific fundamentals in sovereign CDS spreads: Eastern European experiences," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 140-168.
    9. D. Essers & E. Vincent, 2017. "The global financial safety net :In need of repair ?," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue ii, pages 87-112, september.
    10. Sensoy, Ahmet & Ozturk, Kevser & Hacihasanoglu, Erk & Tabak, Benjamin M., 2017. "Not all emerging markets are the same: A classification approach with correlation based networks," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 163-186.
    11. Jamshed Y. Uppal, 2017. "External Debt Management in Pakistan: A Market-Based Assessment," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 22(Special E), pages 25-51, September.
    12. Weneyam Hippolyte Balima & Jean-Louis Combes & Alexandru Minea, 2015. "Sovereign Debt Risk in Emerging Countries: Does Inflation Targeting Adoption Make Any Difference?," Working Papers halshs-01128239, HAL.
    13. Sanjay Kumar Rout & Hrushikesh Mallick, 2022. "Sovereign Bond Market Shock Spillover Over Different Maturities: A Journey from Normal to Covid-19 Period," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 29(4), pages 697-734, December.
    14. Stracca, Livio & Scheubel, Beatrice, 2016. "What do we know about the global financial safety net? Rationale, data and possible evolution," Occasional Paper Series 177, European Central Bank.
    15. L´Hotellerie-Fallois, Pilar & Broos, Menno & Herrero, Sonsoles Gallego & Chamorro, Isabel Garrido & Vicente, Fernando López & Mukhopadhyay, Mayukh & Maurini, Claudia & Vonessen, Benjamin, 2018. "A quantitative analysis of the size of IMF resources," Occasional Paper Series 213, European Central Bank.
    16. Scheubel, Beatrice & Stracca, Livio, 2019. "What do we know about the global financial safety net? A new comprehensive data set," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    17. Capelle-Blancard, Gunther & Crifo, Patricia & Diaye, Marc-Arthur & Oueghlissi, Rim & Scholtens, Bert, 2019. "Sovereign bond yield spreads and sustainability: An empirical analysis of OECD countries," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 156-169.
    18. Claudia Maurini, 2019. "IMF programs and stigma in Emerging Market Economies," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1247, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    19. Yao Axel Ehouman, 2021. "Dependence structure between oil price volatility and sovereign credit risk of oil exporters : Evidence using a Copula Approach," Post-Print hal-03348410, HAL.
    20. Fernando Eguren Martin & Mark Joy & Claudia Maurini & Alessandro Moro & Valerio Nispi Landi & Alessandro Schiavone & Carlos van Hombeeck, 2020. "Capital flows during the pandemic: lessons for a more resilient international financial architecture," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 589, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    global financial safety net; sovereign yields; emerging markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F55 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Institutional Arrangements
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bkr:journl:v:78:y:2019:i:2:p:43-66. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Olga Kuvshinova (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cbrgvru.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.