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On the Use of Leading Indicators to Predict Cyclical Turning Points

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  • Saul H. Hymans

    (University of Michigan)

Abstract

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Suggested Citation

  • Saul H. Hymans, 1973. "On the Use of Leading Indicators to Predict Cyclical Turning Points," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 4(2), pages 339-384.
    • Handle: RePEc:bin:bpeajo:v:4:y:1973:i:1973-2:p:339-384
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    File URL: https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/1973/06/1973b_bpea_hymans_greenspan_shiskin_early.pdf
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Evan F. Koenig & Kenneth M. Emery, 1994. "Why The Composite Index Of Leading Indicators Does Not Lead," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 12(1), pages 52-66, January.
    2. Marcel, Mario., 1990. "Leading indicators for employment forecasting in developing countries," ILO Working Papers 992788013402676, International Labour Organization.
    3. repec:ilo:ilowps:278801 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Robert Pater, 2014. "Are there two types of business cycles? a note on crisis detection," "e-Finanse", University of Information Technology and Management, Institute of Financial Research and Analysis, vol. 10(3), pages 1-28, December.
    5. Berneburg, Marian, 2003. "Composite Leading Indicators der amerikanischen Wirtschaft - Prognosegüte des Conference Board und des OECD Ansatzes im Vergleich," IWH Discussion Papers 172/2003, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    6. Sergey Smirnov, 2011. "Those Unpredictable Recessions," HSE Working papers WP BRP 02/EC/2011, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    7. Aleksandar M. Velkoski, 2015. "Restaurant Consumption as an Economic Indicator," Tourism Economics, , vol. 21(2), pages 325-339, April.
    8. Timotej Jagric, 2003. "Forecasting with leading economic indicators - a non-linear approach," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2003(1), pages 68-83.
    9. Andrew Filardo, 2004. "The 2001 US recession: what did recession prediction models tell us?," BIS Working Papers 148, Bank for International Settlements.
    10. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1988. "A Probability Model of The Coincident Economic Indicators," NBER Working Papers 2772, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1993. "A Procedure for Predicting Recessions with Leading Indicators: Econometric Issues and Recent Experience," NBER Chapters, in: Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting, pages 95-156, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1990. "Business Cycle Properties of Selected U.S. Economic Time Series, 1959-1988," Working Papers 1990-1, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    13. Maki, Wilbur R., 1981. "Minnesota Economic Indicators," Staff Papers 13927, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
    14. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1990. "Business Cycle Properties of Selected U.S. Economic Time Series, 1959-1988," NBER Working Papers 3376, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Maki, Wilbur R. & Stenberg, Peter L., 1988. "Minnesota Economic Indicators: Part I Purpose And Precedent," Staff Papers 14014, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
    16. Sergey V. Smirnov & Daria A. Avdeeva, 2016. "Wishful Bias in Predicting Us Recessions: Indirect Evidence," HSE Working papers WP BRP 135/EC/2016, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    17. Agne Reklaite, 2011. "Coincident, leading and recession indexes for the Lithuanian economy," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 11(1), pages 91-108, July.
    18. Rama K. Malladi, 2024. "Application of Supervised Machine Learning Techniques to Forecast the COVID-19 U.S. Recession and Stock Market Crash," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 63(3), pages 1021-1045, March.
    19. Jagric Timotej, 2003. "A Nonlinear Approach to Forecasting with Leading Economic Indicators," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(2), pages 1-20, July.
    20. Andrew J. Filardo, 1999. "How reliable are recession prediction models?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 84(Q II), pages 35-55.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    macroeconomics; cyclical turning points;

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