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Adaptive Experimental Design Using the Propensity Score

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  • Hahn, Jinyong
  • Hirano, Keisuke
  • Karlan, Dean

Abstract

Many social experiments are run in multiple waves, or are replications of earlier social experiments. In principle, the sampling design can be modified in later stages or replications to allow for more efficient estimation of causal effects. We consider the design of a two-stage experiment for estimating an average treatment effect, when covariate information is available for experimental subjects. We use data from the first stage to choose a conditional treatment assignment rule for units in the second stage of the experiment. This amounts to choosing the propensity score, the conditional probability of treatment given covariates. We propose to select the propensity score to minimize the asymptotic variance bound for estimating the average treatment effect. Our procedure can be implemented simply using standard statistical software and has attractive large-sample properties.
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Suggested Citation

  • Hahn, Jinyong & Hirano, Keisuke & Karlan, Dean, 2011. "Adaptive Experimental Design Using the Propensity Score," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 29(1), pages 96-108.
    • Handle: RePEc:bes:jnlbes:v:29:i:1:y:2011:p:96-108
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    6. Dean S. Karlan & Jonathan Zinman, 2008. "Credit Elasticities in Less-Developed Economies: Implications for Microfinance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(3), pages 1040-1068, June.
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    10. Flores-Lagunes, Alfonso & Gonzalez, Arturo & Neumann, Todd C., 2005. "Learning but Not Earning? The Value of Job Corps Training for Hispanic Youths," IZA Discussion Papers 1638, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C90 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - General
    • C42 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Survey Methods
    • C93 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Field Experiments
    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics

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