IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bap/journl/120203.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Study of the Dynamic Relationship between Crude Oil Price and the Steel Price Index

Author

Listed:
  • Ming-Tao Chou

    (Chang Jung Christian University, Republic of China (Taiwan))

  • Ya - Ling Yang

    (Chang Jung Christian University, Republic of China (Taiwan))

  • Su-Chiung Chang

    (Chang Jung Christian University, Republic of China (Taiwan))

Abstract

Bulk shipping providers predominantly supply transportation services for bulk cargo, such as iron ore, grain and coal. As steel price index is a leading indicator of Baltic Dry Index, the cost of marine fuel becomes one of the key costs for shipping providers. By collecting data and building a VARMA model, this study will attempt to discover the dynamic relationship between crude oil price and the global steel price index. The results of this study are as follows: (1) The outcomes of examining the unit root using the Phillips-Perron-test indicates that the two variables, the crude oil price and global steel price index, have a co-integration effect. This also proves that a long term balancing phenomenon exists between the crude oil price and global steel price index. (2) VARMA (3, 2) is the most suitable stage of the model for both the crude oil price and global steel price index. (3) There is a unidirectional relationship between crude oil price and the global steel price index, which means that the price of crude oil is only impacted from its own volatility. However, the global steel price index is impacted from both the movements of its own price and the volatility of crude oil price. (4) The crude oil price moves prior to movements in the global steel price index. When crude oil price increases, the global steel price index follows this upward movement. This study aims to provide a reference for investors¡¯ investment activities and shipping operators¡¯ risk aversion decisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Ming-Tao Chou & Ya - Ling Yang & Su-Chiung Chang, 2012. "A Study of the Dynamic Relationship between Crude Oil Price and the Steel Price Index," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 2, pages 30-42, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:bap:journl:120203
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.bapress.ca/Journal-7/A%20Study%20of%20the%20Dynamic%20Relationship%20between%20Crude%20Oil%20Price%20and%20the%20Steel%20Price%20Index.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cullinane, Kevin, 1995. "A portfolio analysis of market investments in dry bulk shipping," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 181-200, June.
    2. Hansen, Bruce E & West, Kenneth D, 2002. "Generalized Method of Moments and Macroeconomics," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(4), pages 460-469, October.
    3. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
    4. Notteboom, Theo E. & Vernimmen, Bert, 2009. "The effect of high fuel costs on liner service configuration in container shipping," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 325-337.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kerry Patterson & Michael A. Thornton, 2013. "A review of econometric concepts and methods for empirical macroeconomics," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 2, pages 4-42, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Tvedt, Jostein & Hovi, Inger Beate, 2024. "Container shipping: A market equilibrium perspective on freight rates formation post-Covid-19," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    3. Seiler, Volker, 2024. "The relationship between Chinese and FOB prices of rare earth elements – Evidence in the time and frequency domain," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 160-179.
    4. Kandil, Magda & Woods, Jeffrey G., 1995. "A cross-industry examination of the Lucas misperceptions model," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 55-76.
    5. Herrera, Santiago, 2000. "Determinantes y composición del endeudamiento público en Colombia," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 2110, Inter-American Development Bank.
    6. Antoine d'Autume, 1992. "Coïntégration et modèles dynamiques," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 106(5), pages 71-83.
    7. John Barkoulas & Christopher Baum & Mustafa Caglayan, 1999. "Fractional monetary dynamics," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(11), pages 1393-1400.
    8. Manuel Gonzalez-Astudillo & John M. Roberts, 2016. "When Can Trend-Cycle Decompositions Be Trusted?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-099, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. Cem Ertur & Antonio Musolesi, 2017. "Weak and Strong Cross‐Sectional Dependence: A Panel Data Analysis of International Technology Diffusion," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(3), pages 477-503, April.
    10. Heinemann, Friedrich, 1994. "Central Europe and European monetary integration: a strategy for catching up," ZEW Discussion Papers 94-21, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    11. Wang, Shuaian & Meng, Qiang, 2012. "Liner ship route schedule design with sea contingency time and port time uncertainty," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 46(5), pages 615-633.
    12. Froyen, Richard T & Waud, Roger N, 1988. "Real Business Cycles and the Lucas Paradigm," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 26(2), pages 183-201, April.
    13. Apostolos Serletis & Ricardo Rangel-Ruiz, 2007. "Testing for Common Features in North American Energy Markets," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Quantitative And Empirical Analysis Of Energy Markets, chapter 14, pages 172-187, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    14. Rocha, Roberto de Rezende, 1991. "Inflation and stabilization in Yugoslavia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 752, The World Bank.
    15. J.P.G. Reijnders, 2007. "Impulse or propagation? How the tides turned in Business Cycle Theory," Working Papers 07-07, Utrecht School of Economics.
    16. Steven Cook, 2008. "More uncertainty: on the trending nature of real GDP in the US and UK," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(9), pages 667-670.
    17. Mehdi Abid & Rafaa Mraihi, 2015. "Energy Consumption and Industrial Production: Evidence from Tunisia at Both Aggregated and Disaggregated Levels," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 6(4), pages 1123-1137, December.
    18. Michelacci, Claudio & Zaffaroni, Paolo, 2000. "(Fractional) beta convergence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 129-153, February.
    19. Brittle, Shane, 2009. "Ricardian Equivalence and the Efficacy of Fiscal Policy in Australia," Economics Working Papers wp09-10, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
    20. Magirou, Evangelos F. & Psaraftis, Harilaos N. & Bouritas, Theodore, 2015. "The economic speed of an oceangoing vessel in a dynamic setting," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 48-67.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bulk shipping; Crude oil price; Steel price index; VARMA;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C4 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • D4 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bap:journl:120203. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Carlson (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.bapress.ca .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.