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The Effects of Donald Trump's Tweets on US Financial and Foreign Exchange Markets

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  • Constantin Colonescu

Abstract

Twitter is the US president’s, Donald Trump, preferred media for communicating his thoughts to his followers. This project looks at the effect of the daily flow of Donald Trump’s tweets on the US financial and foreign exchange markets, represented by the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) index and some exchange rates, over the period of Donald Trump’s ongoing presidency. Using text mining techniques, some correlation is found between various moving average window lengths of tweet content and the DJI index. Some short term and lasting effects are also detected on US-Canada and US composite exchange rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Constantin Colonescu, 2018. "The Effects of Donald Trump's Tweets on US Financial and Foreign Exchange Markets," Athens Journal of Business & Economics, Athens Institute for Education and Research (ATINER), vol. 4(4), pages 375-388, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:ate:journl:ajbev4i4-2
    DOI: 10.30958/ajbe.4-4-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Panagiotis Papaioannnou & Lucia Russo & George Papaioannou & Constantinos Siettos, 2013. "Can social microblogging be used to forecast intraday exchange rates?," Papers 1310.5306, arXiv.org.
    2. Panagiotis Papaioannou & Lucia Russo & George Papaioannou & Constantinos Siettos, 2013. "Can social microblogging be used to forecast intraday exchange rates?," Netnomics, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 47-68, November.
    3. Gabriele Ranco & Darko Aleksovski & Guido Caldarelli & Miha Grčar & Igor Mozetič, 2015. "The Effects of Twitter Sentiment on Stock Price Returns," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(9), pages 1-21, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gregory T. Papanikos, 2022. "Greece in the Eurozone: An Evaluation of the First Two Decades," Athens Journal of Business & Economics, Athens Institute for Education and Research (ATINER), vol. 8(2), pages 177-192, April.
    2. Yusaku Nishimura & Xuyi Dong & Bianxia Sun, 2021. "Trump's tweets: Sentiment, stock market volatility, and jumps," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 44(3), pages 497-512, September.
    3. Vijay S. Sampath & Arthur J. O’Connor & Calvester Legister, 2022. "Moral leadership and investor attention: An empirical assessment of the potus’s tweets on firms’ market returns," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 58(3), pages 881-910, April.
    4. Perico Ortiz, Daniel, 2021. "The high frequency impact of economic policy narratives on stock market uncertainty," FAU Discussion Papers in Economics 02/2021, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Institute for Economics.
    5. Guo, Shijun & Jiao, Yang & Xu, Zhiwei, 2021. "Trump’s Effect on the Chinese Stock Market," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    6. Daniel Perico Ortiz, 2023. "Economic policy statements, social media, and stock market uncertainty: An analysis of Donald Trump’s tweets," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 47(2), pages 333-367, June.
    7. Nishimura, Yusaku & Sun, Bianxia, 2021. "President’s Tweets, US-China economic conflict and stock market Volatility: Evidence from China and G5 countries," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    8. Abdi, Farshid & Kormanyos, Emily & Pelizzon, Loriana & Getmansky, Mila & Simon, Zorka, 2021. "Market impact of government communication: The case of presidential tweets," SAFE Working Paper Series 314, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE, revised 2021.

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