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Understanding diabetes population dynamics through simulation modeling and experimentation

Author

Listed:
  • Jones, A.P.
  • Homer, J.B.
  • Murphy, D.L.
  • Essien, J.D.K.
  • Milstein, B.
  • Seville, D.A.
  • Barnes, K.

Abstract

Health planners in the Division of Diabetes Translation and others from the National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention used system dynamics simulation modeling to gain a better understanding of diabetes population dynamics and to explore implications for public health strategy. A model was developed to explain the growth of diabetes since 1980 and portray possible futures through 2050. The model simulations suggest characteristic dynamics of the diabetes population, including unintended increases in diabetes prevalence due to diabetes control, the inability of diabetes control efforts alone to reduce diabetes-related deaths in the long term, and significant delays between primary prevention efforts and downstream improvements in diabetes outcomes.

Suggested Citation

  • Jones, A.P. & Homer, J.B. & Murphy, D.L. & Essien, J.D.K. & Milstein, B. & Seville, D.A. & Barnes, K., 2006. "Understanding diabetes population dynamics through simulation modeling and experimentation," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 96(3), pages 488-494.
    • Handle: RePEc:aph:ajpbhl:10.2105/ajph.2005.063529_7
    DOI: 10.2105/AJPH.2005.063529
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    Cited by:

    1. Vincent O. Omwenga & Vaishnav Madhumati & Kumar Vinay & Sathyanarayan Srikanta & Navakanta Bhat, 2023. "Mathematical Modelling of Combined Intervention Strategies for the Management and Control of Plasma Glucose of a Diabetes Mellitus Patient: A System Dynamic Modelling Approach," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-17, January.
    2. Negar Darabi & Niyousha Hosseinichimeh, 2020. "System dynamics modeling in health and medicine: a systematic literature review," System Dynamics Review, System Dynamics Society, vol. 36(1), pages 29-73, January.
    3. Özge Karanfil & Yaman Barlas, 2008. "A Dynamic Simulator for the Management of Disorders of the Body Water Homeostasis," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 56(6), pages 1474-1492, December.
    4. Özge Karanfil & Niyousha Hosseinichimeh & Jim Duggan, 2020. "System dynamics and bio‐medical modeling," System Dynamics Review, System Dynamics Society, vol. 36(4), pages 389-396, October.
    5. Mehdi Javanbakht & Atefeh Mashayekhi & Hamid R Baradaran & AliAkbar Haghdoost & Ashkan Afshin, 2015. "Projection of Diabetes Population Size and Associated Economic Burden through 2030 in Iran: Evidence from Micro-Simulation Markov Model and Bayesian Meta-Analysis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(7), pages 1-17, July.
    6. Weiwei Zhang & Thomas Huggins & Wenwen Zheng & Shiyong Liu & Zhanwei Du & Hongli Zhu & Ahmad Raza & Ahmad Hussen Tareq, 2022. "Assessing the Dynamic Outcomes of Containment Strategies against COVID-19 under Different Public Health Governance Structures: A Comparison between Pakistan and Bangladesh," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(15), pages 1-22, July.
    7. Md Mahfuzur Rahman & Rubayet Karim & Md. Moniruzzaman & Md. Afjal Hossain & Hammad Younes, 2023. "Modeling Hospital Operating Theater Services: A System Dynamics Approach," Logistics, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-21, November.
    8. John Pastor Ansah & Keith Low Sheng Hng & Salman Ahmad & Cheryl Goh, 2021. "Evaluating the impact of upstream and downstream interventions on chronic kidney disease and dialysis care: a simulation analysis," System Dynamics Review, System Dynamics Society, vol. 37(1), pages 32-58, January.
    9. Linna Luo & Bowen Pang & Jian Chen & Yan Li & Xiaolei Xie, 2019. "Assessing the Impact of Lifestyle Interventions on Diabetes Prevention in China: A Modeling Approach," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(10), pages 1-12, May.
    10. John Pastor Ansah & Shawn Tan Yi Wei & Tessa Lui Shi Min, 2020. "An evaluation of the impact of aggressive diabetes and hypertension management on chronic kidney diseases at the population level: a simulation analysis," System Dynamics Review, System Dynamics Society, vol. 36(4), pages 497-522, October.
    11. Laurie Brown & Binod Nepal & Heather Booth & Sophie Pennec & Kaarin Anstey & Ann Harding, 2011. "Dynamic Modelling of Ageing and Health: The Dynopta Microsimulation Model," NATSEM Working Paper Series 11/14, University of Canberra, National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling.
    12. Hassmiller Lich, Kristen & Urban, Jennifer Brown & Frerichs, Leah & Dave, Gaurav, 2017. "Extending systems thinking in planning and evaluation using group concept mapping and system dynamics to tackle complex problems," Evaluation and Program Planning, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 254-264.
    13. Mohammad Reza Davahli & Waldemar Karwowski & Redha Taiar, 2020. "A System Dynamics Simulation Applied to Healthcare: A Systematic Review," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(16), pages 1-27, August.
    14. Marion S. Rauner & Walter J. Gutjahr & Kurt Heidenberger & Joachim Wagner & Joseph Pasia, 2010. "Dynamic Policy Modeling for Chronic Diseases: Metaheuristic-Based Identification of Pareto-Optimal Screening Strategies," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 58(5), pages 1269-1286, October.

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