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Assessing the Impact of Lifestyle Interventions on Diabetes Prevention in China: A Modeling Approach

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  • Linna Luo

    (School of Economics and Management, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
    Research Center for Contemporary Management, Key Research Institute of Humanities and Social Sciences at Universities, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China)

  • Bowen Pang

    (Center for Healthcare Service Research, Department of Industrial Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China)

  • Jian Chen

    (School of Economics and Management, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
    Research Center for Contemporary Management, Key Research Institute of Humanities and Social Sciences at Universities, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China)

  • Yan Li

    (Center for Health Innovation, The New York Academy of Medicine, New York, NY 10029, USA
    Department of Population Health Science and Policy, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY 10029-5674, USA)

  • Xiaolei Xie

    (Center for Healthcare Service Research, Department of Industrial Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China)

Abstract

China’s diabetes epidemic is getting worse. People with diabetes in China usually have a lower body weight and a different lifestyle profile compared to their counterparts in the United States (US). More and more evidence show that certain lifestyles can possibly be spread from person to person, leading some to propose considering social influence when establishing preventive policies. This study developed an innovative agent-based model of the diabetes epidemic for the Chinese population. Based on the risk factors and related complications of diabetes, the model captured individual health progression, quantitatively described the peer influence of certain lifestyles, and projected population health outcomes over a specific time period. We simulated several hypothetical interventions (i.e., improving diet, controlling smoking, improving physical activity) and assessed their impact on diabetes rates. We validated the model by comparing simulation results with external datasets. Our results showed that improving physical activity could result in the most significant decrease in diabetes prevalence compared to improving diet and controlling smoking. Our model can be used to inform policymakers on how the diabetes epidemic develops and help them compare different diabetes prevention programs in practice.

Suggested Citation

  • Linna Luo & Bowen Pang & Jian Chen & Yan Li & Xiaolei Xie, 2019. "Assessing the Impact of Lifestyle Interventions on Diabetes Prevention in China: A Modeling Approach," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(10), pages 1-12, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:16:y:2019:i:10:p:1677-:d:230871
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    References listed on IDEAS

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