IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/aob/journl/y2024i2specialp60-61.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Особенности взаимосвязи рынка труда и инфляционных процессов в экономике Казахстана в период 2001-2021 гг.: теория и практика реализации // Specifics of Relationship between the Labor Market and Inflationary Processes in the Kazakh Economy in 2001-2021: Theory and Implementation

Author

Listed:
  • Татибеков Б. // Tatibekov B.

    (SDU University)

  • Абдразакова А. // Abdrazakova А.

    (SDU University)

Abstract

В статье раскрываются теоретические основы взаимосвязи рынка труда и инфляционных процессов, в частности, так называемые теории “Demand-Pull inflation” и “Cost Push inflation”, приводится теория монетарной политики в этом контексте. В целях проведения прикладного количественного анализа раскрываются методологические основы концептуализации и идентификации таких экономических категорий как безработица, реальная заработная плата, инфляция. На основе данных за 2001-2021 гг. приводится корреляционно-регрессионный анализ взаимосвязи и взаимозависимости функционирования рынка труда и произошедших инфляционных изменений. Новизной работы является сравнительный анализ функционирования официального рынка труда и рынка труда, отображаемого по методологии Международной организации труда. В результате проведенных расчетов и анализа делается заключение, что одним из основных инструментов влияния на снижение безработицы в течение более 20 лет в Казахстане являлась выверенная государственная политика, нежели рыночные механизмы, отмеченные в неоклассической экономической теории. Авторы доказывают, что основным методологическим подходом подтверждения вышеобозначенных неоклассических теоретических закономерностей должен быть не статический (ежегодный), а динамический анализ изменения безработицы и инфляции по отношению к базовому 2001 году. // The paper describes the theoretical fundamentals of the relationship between the labor market and inflationary processes, in particular, the so-called theories of “Demand-Pull inflation” and “Cost Push inflation”, and provides a theory of monetary policy in this context. In order to conduct an applied quantitative analysis, the methodological foundations of conceptualization and identification of such economic categories as unemployment, real wages, and inflation are provided in detail. Based on data for 2001-2021, a correlation and regression analysis of the relationship and interdependence of the functioning of the labor market and the inflationary changes that have occurred is described. The novelty of the work is the comparative analysis of how the official labor market and the labor market as shown under the International Labor Organization methodology. As a result of the calculations and analysis, the conclusion is made that one of the main instruments, which cause reduction of unemployment for more than 20 years in Kazakhstan was a coordinated government policy, rather than market mechanisms noted in neoclassical economic theory. The authors argue that the main methodological approach to confirming the abovementioned neoclassical theoretical regularities should not be a static (annual) but a dynamic analysis of changes in unemployment and inflation in relation to the base year of 2001.

Suggested Citation

  • Татибеков Б. // Tatibekov B. & Абдразакова А. // Abdrazakova А., 2024. "Особенности взаимосвязи рынка труда и инфляционных процессов в экономике Казахстана в период 2001-2021 гг.: теория и практика реализации // Specifics of Relationship between the Labor Market and Infla," Economic Review(National Bank of Kazakhstan), National Bank of Kazakhstan, issue 2 Special, pages 60-61.
    • Handle: RePEc:aob:journl:y:2024:i:2special:p:60-61
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://nationalbank.kz/file/download/102493
    File Function: English language version
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://nationalbank.kz/file/download/104749
    File Function: Russian language version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jorge E. Galán & Javier Mencía, 2018. "Empirical assessment of alternative structural methods for identifying cyclical systemic risk in Europe," Working Papers 1825, Banco de España.
    2. Galati, Gabriele & Hindrayanto, Irma & Koopman, Siem Jan & Vlekke, Marente, 2016. "Measuring financial cycles in a model-based analysis: Empirical evidence for the United States and the euro area," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 83-87.
    3. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi & Emil Verner, 2017. "Household Debt and Business Cycles Worldwide," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(4), pages 1755-1817.
    4. Koong, Seow Shin & Law, Siong Hook & Ibrahim, Mansor H., 2017. "Credit expansion and financial stability in Malaysia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 339-350.
    5. Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2012. "Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles, and Financial Crises, 1870-2008," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 1029-1061, April.
    6. Claudio Borio & Mathias Drehmann, 2009. "Assessing the risk of banking crises - revisited," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    7. Gambacorta, Leonardo & Shin, Hyun Song, 2018. "Why bank capital matters for monetary policy," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 35(PB), pages 17-29.
    8. Mathias Drehmann & Mikael Juselius, 2012. "Do debt service costs affect macroeconomic and financial stability?," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    9. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
    10. Bedayo, Mikel & Estrada, Ángel & Saurina, Jesús, 2020. "Bank capital, lending booms, and busts: Evidence from Spain over the last 150 years," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 1(1).
    11. Mathias Drehmann & Claudio Borio & Leonardo Gambacorta & Gabriel Jiminez & Carlos Trucharte, 2010. "Countercyclical capital buffers: exploring options," BIS Working Papers 317, Bank for International Settlements.
    12. Saibal Ghosh, 2008. "Capital requirements, bank behavior and monetary policy: A theoretical analysis with an empirical application to India," Indian Economic Review, Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics, vol. 43(2), pages 205-227, December.
    13. Nachane, Dilip & Ghosh, Saibal & Ray, Partha, 2006. "Basel II and bank lending behavior: Some likely implications for monetary policy in India," MPRA Paper 3840, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. David Aikman & Andrew G. Haldane & Benjamin D. Nelson, 2015. "Curbing the Credit Cycle," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 125(585), pages 1072-1109, June.
    15. Nachane, Dilip & Ghosh, Saibal & Ray, Partha, 2006. "Basel II and bank lending behavior: some likely implications for monetary policy," MPRA Paper 3841, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Ekinci, Mehmet Fatih & Omay, Tolga, 2020. "Current account and credit growth: The role of household credit and financial depth," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    17. Martínez, Juan Francisco & Oda, Daniel, 2021. "Characterization of the Chilean financial cycle, early warning indicators and implications for macro-prudential policies," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 2(1).
    18. Morten O. Ravn & Harald Uhlig, 2002. "On adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the frequency of observations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 371-375.
    19. Mathias Drehmann & Claudio Borio & Kostas Tsatsaronis, 2011. "Anchoring Countercyclical Capital Buffers: The role of Credit Aggregates," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 7(4), pages 189-240, December.
    20. Gavalas, Dimitris, 2015. "How do banks perform under Basel III? Tracing lending rates and loan quantity," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 21-37.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Яндиев М. // Yandiyev М., 2024. "Феномен недооценки при первичном размещении акций объясняется алчностью финансовых спекулянтов // The Phenomenon of Underpricing during Initial Public Offering is Explained by the Greed of Financial S," Economic Review(National Bank of Kazakhstan), National Bank of Kazakhstan, issue 2 Special, pages 65-85.
    2. Ыбраев Ж. // Ybrayev Zh., 2024. "Макроэкономическая активность и контр-циклический буфер капитала в Казахстане // Macroeconomic Activity and Countercyclical Capital Buffer in Kazakhstan," Economic Review(National Bank of Kazakhstan), National Bank of Kazakhstan, issue 2 Special, pages 92-100.
    3. Ажгалиева Д. // Azhgaliyeva D. & Капсалямова З. // Kapsalyamova Z., 2024. "Государственная поддержка в продвижении зеленых облигаций в Азии: эмпирические данные // Policy support in promoting green bonds in Asia: empirical evidence," Economic Review(National Bank of Kazakhstan), National Bank of Kazakhstan, issue 2 Special, pages 63-64.
    4. Абилов Н. // Abilov N., 2024. "Риск действительно имеет значение: шоки неопределенности в условиях малой экономики страны – экспортера нефти // Risk indeed matters: uncertainty shocks in a small oil-exporting economy," Economic Review(National Bank of Kazakhstan), National Bank of Kazakhstan, issue 2 Special, pages 7-23.
    5. Алдашев А. // Aldashev А. & Баткеев Б. // Batkeyev В., 2024. "Задолженность домохозяйств, гетерогенность и финансовая стабильность на примере Казахстана // Household debt, heterogeneity and financial stability: Evidence from Kazakhstan," Economic Review(National Bank of Kazakhstan), National Bank of Kazakhstan, issue 2 Special, pages 90-91.
    6. Рысбаева Ә. Б. // Rysbayeva A.B. & Ханет А. Б. // Khanet А. B., 2024. "Фискальные мультипликаторы в Казахстане // Fiscal Multipliers in Kazakhstan," Economic Review(National Bank of Kazakhstan), National Bank of Kazakhstan, issue 2 Special, pages 24-44.
    7. Адилханова З. // Adilkhanova Z., 2024. "Влияние жесткости заработных плат на инфляцию в рамках трансмиссионного механизма монетарной политики // Impact of Wage Rigidity on Inflation within the Framework of Monetary Policy Transmission Mecha," Economic Review(National Bank of Kazakhstan), National Bank of Kazakhstan, issue 2 Special, pages 45-59.
    8. Еселева-Пионка М. // Yesseleva-Pionka М. & Кенжегаранова М. // Kenzhegaranova М. & Азимбекова А. // Azimbekova А. & Кусниева А. // Kusniyeva А. & Байбекова А. // Baibekova А., 2024. "Противодействие финансовым мошенничествам, в частности пирамидам, интернет и телефонным мошенничествам // Combating Fnancial Fraud, in Particular Pyramid, Internet and Telephone Fraud," Economic Review(National Bank of Kazakhstan), National Bank of Kazakhstan, issue 2 Special, pages 86-89.
    9. Jorge E. Galán, 2019. "Measuring credit-to-gdp gaps. The hodrick-prescott filter revisited," Occasional Papers 1906, Banco de España.
    10. Jorge E. Galán & Javier Mencía, 2018. "Empirical assessment of alternative structural methods for identifying cyclical systemic risk in Europe," Working Papers 1825, Banco de España.
    11. Mathias Drehmann & Kostas Tsatsaronis, 2014. "The credit-to-GDP gap and countercyclical capital buffers: questions and answers," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    12. Jorge E. Galán & Javier Mencía, 2021. "Model-based indicators for the identification of cyclical systemic risk," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(6), pages 3179-3211, December.
    13. Herradi, Mehdi El & Leroy, Aurélien, 2022. "The rich, poor, and middle class: Banking crises and income distribution," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    14. Mathias Drehmann & James Yetman, 2021. "Which Credit Gap Is Better at Predicting Financial Crises? A Comparison of Univariate Filters," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 17(70), pages 1-31, October.
    15. Alessi, Lucia & Detken, Carsten, 2018. "Identifying excessive credit growth and leverage," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 215-225.
    16. Jon Danielsson & Marcela Valenzuela & Ilknur Zer, 2018. "Learning from History: Volatility and Financial Crises," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(7), pages 2774-2805.
    17. Tihana Skrinjaric & Maja Bukovsak, 2022. "Improving The Calibration Of Countercyclical Capital Buffer: New Indicators Of Credit Gap In Croatia," Economic Thought and Practice, Department of Economics and Business, University of Dubrovnik, vol. 31(2), pages 541-568, december.
    18. Iñaki Aldasoro & Claudio Borio & Mathias Drehmann, 2018. "Early warning indicators of banking crises: expanding the family," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    19. Adam Geršl & Thomas Mitterling, 2021. "Forecast-Augmented Credit-to-GDP Gap as an Early Warning Indicator of Banking Crises," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 71(4), pages 323-351, December.
    20. Borio, Claudio & Drehmann, Mathias & Xia, Fan Dora, 2020. "Forecasting recessions: the importance of the financial cycle," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    безработица; инфляция; demand-pull inflation; cost push inflation; unemployment; inflation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aob:journl:y:2024:i:2special:p:60-61. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Saida Agambayeva (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nbkgvkz.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.