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Фискальные мультипликаторы в Казахстане // Fiscal Multipliers in Kazakhstan

Author

Listed:
  • Рысбаева Ә. Б. // Rysbayeva A.B.

    (National Bank of Kazakhstan)

  • Ханет А. Б. // Khanet А. B.

    (National Bank of Kazakhstan)

Abstract

Исследование фискальных мультипликаторов позволяет оценить влияние государственных расходов на общий уровень экономической активности. В контексте Казахстана, учитывая значительную зависимость от экспорта нефти, понимание механизмов фискального воздействия на экономику приобретает особую актуальность. Статья является продолжением исследовательской работы в области изучения фискальных параметров Казахстана, которое было направлено на оценку характера фискальной политики. В данном исследовании была произведена эмпирическая оценка фискального мультипликатора расходной части государственного бюджета Казахстана с использованием модели структурной векторной авторегрессии (SVAR) с помощью трех подходов: рекурсивный метод, метод Бланшара-Перотти и метод с ограничениями знаков. Основные выводы исследования показывают, что при своем положительном влиянии на экономический рост в Казахстане, полученное относительно небольшое расчетное значение фискального мультипликатора, возможно, указывает на ограниченность его прямого эффекта на увеличение ВВП и наличие не учтенных в модели других структурных и конъюнктурных факторов, влияющих на экономический рост. Также значения мультипликатора, полученные в рамках моделей без учета влияния нефтяного сектора, меньше значений мультипликатора, рассчитанных в моделях, учитывающих нефтяные доходы. Включение социальных трансфертов оказывает значительное влияние на размеры фискальных мультипликаторов. Это подчеркивает важность социальных расходов для стимулирования экономической активности в Казахстане. // The study of fiscal multipliers allows assessing the impact of government spending on the overall level of economic activity. In the context of Kazakhstan, given its significant dependence on oil exports, understanding the mechanisms of fiscal impact on the economy is particularly relevant. The paper is a continuation of the research work in the field of studying the fiscal parameters of Kazakhstan, which was aimed at assessing the nature of fiscal policy. In this study, an empirical estimate of the fiscal multiplier of the expenditure side of Kazakhstan state budget was made using the structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model with the help of three approaches - the recursive method, the Blanchard-Perotti method and the method with sign restrictions. The main findings of the study show that, despite its positive impact on the economic growth in Kazakhstan, a relatively small calculated value of the fiscal multiplier may indicate the limited nature of its direct effect on the GDP increase and the presence of other structural and market factors influencing economic growth that are not factored into the model. In addition, the multipliers values obtained within the framework of 2 models without taking into account the influence of the oil sector and with the inclusion of social transfers show a greater value compared to the multiplier calculated on the basis of a model taking into account oil revenues, while in the model with sign restrictions, the multiplier with the oil sector is the opposite closer to 1st. The inclusion of social transfers has a significant impact on the size of fiscal multipliers. This highlights the importance of social spending to stimulate economic activity in Kazakhstan.

Suggested Citation

  • Рысбаева Ә. Б. // Rysbayeva A.B. & Ханет А. Б. // Khanet А. B., 2024. "Фискальные мультипликаторы в Казахстане // Fiscal Multipliers in Kazakhstan," Economic Review(National Bank of Kazakhstan), National Bank of Kazakhstan, issue 2 Special, pages 24-44.
  • Handle: RePEc:aob:journl:y:2024:i:2special:p:24-44
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Казахстан; фискальный мультипликатор; государственные расходы; структурная векторная авторегрессия; рекурсивный метод; метод Бланшара-Перотти; метод с ограничениями знаков; Kazakhstan; fiscal multiplier; government spending; structural vector autoregression; a recursive method; Blanchard-Perotti method; a method for working with sign restrictions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H61 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Budget; Budget Systems
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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