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Personal charisma or the economy?: Macroeconomic indicators of presidential approval ratings in Brazil

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  • Alex Luiz Ferreira

    (Universidade de São Paulo, FEA-RP/USP, Brazil)

  • Sérgio Naruhiko Sakurai

    (Universidade de São Paulo, FEA-RP/USP, Brazil)

Abstract

We test the degree to which presidential approval ratings are related to a series of economic indicators, controlling for the political scenario in Brazil. Results, from 1999M9 until 2010M5, show that unemployment and the minimum wage are the main variables that affect the ratings. There is also evidence that President Luis Inácio Lula da Silva has a higher approval rate than President Fernando Henrique Cardoso, keeping constant a reasonable number of important domestic and foreign indicators. However, when controlled for a time trend, differences in popularity between both presidents vanish as the sample size grows. Our results support the conclusion that the good state of the economy (given no political turmoil) is the main factor that explains and predicts Lula's high popularity.

Suggested Citation

  • Alex Luiz Ferreira & Sérgio Naruhiko Sakurai, 2013. "Personal charisma or the economy?: Macroeconomic indicators of presidential approval ratings in Brazil," Economia, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics], vol. 14(3–4), pages 214-232.
    • Handle: RePEc:anp:econom:v:14:y:2013:i:2:214_232
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    Cited by:

    1. Rodrigo Cerda & Natalia Gallardo & Rodrigo Vergara, 2017. "Political approval ratings and economic performance: evidence from Latin America," Estudios Públicos 23, Centro de Estudios Públicos.
    2. Bahram Adrangi & Joseph Macri, 2019. "Does the Misery Index Influence a U.S. President’s Political Re-Election Prospects?," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-11, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Brazilian President; Approval ratings; Macroeconomy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H11 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Structure and Scope of Government
    • H77 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - Intergovernmental Relations; Federalism
    • H83 - Public Economics - - Miscellaneous Issues - - - Public Administration
    • E02 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Institutions and the Macroeconomy
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

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