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Sentiment dynamics and stock returns: the case of the German stock market

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  • Lux, Thomas

Abstract

We use weekly survey data on short-term and medium-term sentiment of German investors in order to study the causal relationship between investors' mood and subsequent stock price changes. In contrast to extant literature for other countries, a tri-variate vector autoregression for short-run sentiment, medium-run sentiment and stock index returns allows to reject exogeneity of returns. Depending on the chosen VAR specification, returns are found to either follow a feedback process caused by medium-run sentiment, or returns form a simultaneous systems together with the two sentiment measures. An out-of-sample forecasting experiment on the base of estimated VAR models shows significant exploitable linear structure for the richer VAR(5) model. Out-of-sample trading experiments underscore the potential for excess profits from a VAR-based strategy compared to the buy-and-hold benchmark.

Suggested Citation

  • Lux, Thomas, 2008. "Sentiment dynamics and stock returns: the case of the German stock market," Kiel Working Papers 1470, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:1470
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Lux, Thomas, 2009. "Mass psychology in action: identification of social interaction effects in the German stock market," Kiel Working Papers 1514, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    2. Elisabete F. Simões Vieira, 2012. "Investor sentiment and market reaction: evidence on 2010 FIFA World Cup," International Journal of Economics and Accounting, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 3(1), pages 51-76.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Investor sentiment; opinion dynamics; return predictability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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