IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ags/sojoae/30211.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Responsiveness Of U.S. Corn And Soybean Acreages To Conditional Price Expectations: An Application To The 1985 Farm Bill

Author

Listed:
  • Shideed, Kamil H.
  • White, Fred C.
  • Brannen, Stephen J.

Abstract

Naïve and adaptive schemes have been used as proxies for price expectations in previous studies of supply response. Those studies contain mixed formulas of futures, support, and lagged prices as alternative formulations for price expectations. This study uses a conditional expected price which combines both market and support prices into one price expectations measure. It defines the total effect of available information on supply response. The results indicate the potential usefulness of formulating expected prices as conditional price expectations in supply response analysis, with support prices being the conditional set. Under the provisions of the 1985 Farm Bill, significant reductions in corn and soybean acreages are in prospect for 1987-90.

Suggested Citation

  • Shideed, Kamil H. & White, Fred C. & Brannen, Stephen J., 1987. "The Responsiveness Of U.S. Corn And Soybean Acreages To Conditional Price Expectations: An Application To The 1985 Farm Bill," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 19(2), pages 1-9, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:sojoae:30211
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.30211
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/30211/files/19020153.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.30211?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cumby, Robert E. & Huizinga, John & Obstfeld, Maurice, 1983. "Two-step two-stage least squares estimation in models with rational expectations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 333-355, April.
    2. Gallagher, Paul W., 1978. "The Effectiveness Of Price Support Policy--Some Evidence For U.S. Corn Acreage Response," Staff Papers 14140, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
    3. Bruce L. Gardner, 1976. "Futures Prices in Supply Analysis," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 58(1), pages 81-84.
    4. Shumway, C. Richard, 1986. "Supply Relationships in the South—What have we Learned?," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(1), pages 11-20, July.
    5. Gallagher, Paul, 1978. "The Effectiveness Of Price Support Policy-Some Evidence For U.S. Corn Acreage Response," Journal of Agricultural Economics Research, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, vol. 30(4), pages 1-7, October.
    6. Anderson, Jock R. & Dillon, John L. & Hardaker, Brian, 1977. "Agricultural Decision Analysis," Monographs: Applied Economics, AgEcon Search, number 288652, November.
    7. Shumway, C. Richard & Chang, A. Anne, 1980. "Supply Response Of Texas Field Crops: An Evaluation Of The Cet Linear Supply Model," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 5(2), pages 1-16, December.
    8. Brian S. Fisher, 1982. "Rational Expectations in Agricultural Economics Research and Policy Analysis," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 64(2), pages 260-265.
    9. Anderson, Jock R. & Feder, Gershon, 2007. "Agricultural Extension," Handbook of Agricultural Economics, in: Robert Evenson & Prabhu Pingali (ed.), Handbook of Agricultural Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 44, pages 2343-2378, Elsevier.
    10. T. Dudley Wallace, 1977. "Pretest Estimation in Regression: A Survey," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 59(3), pages 431-443.
    11. David R. Lee & Peter G. Helmberger, 1985. "Estimating Supply Response in the Presence of Farm Programs," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 67(2), pages 193-203.
    12. Houck, James P., 1976. "Analyzing the Impact of Government Programs on Crop Acreage," Technical Bulletins 158119, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    13. B. J. Morzuch & R. D. Weaver & P. G. Helmberger, 1980. "Wheat Acreage Supply Response under Changing Farm Programs," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 62(1), pages 29-37.
    14. Gallagher, Paul W., 1978. "The Effectiveness of Price Support Policy--Some Evidence for U.S. Corn Acreage Response," Staff General Research Papers Archive 12561, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    15. Glaser, Lewrene K., 1986. "Provisions of the Food Security Act of 1985," Agricultural Information Bulletins 309344, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    16. Russell Lidman & D. Lee Bawden, 1974. "The Impact of Government Programs on Wheat Acreage," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 50(4), pages 327-335.
    17. J. P. Houck & M. E. Ryan, 1972. "Supply Analysis for Corn in the United States: The Impact of Changing Government Programs," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 54(2), pages 184-191.
    18. Shonkwiler, J S & Maddala, G S, 1985. "Modeling Expectations of Bounded Prices: An Application to the Market for Corn," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(4), pages 697-702, November.
    19. Houck, James P. & Ryan, Mary E., 1972. "Supply Analysis For Corn In The United States: The Impact Of Changing Government Programs," Staff Papers 13554, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
    20. Rulon D. Pope, 1981. "Supply Response and the Dispersion of Price Expectations," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 63(1), pages 161-163.
    21. Chavas, Jean-Paul & Pope, Rulon D. & Kao, Robert S., 1983. "An Analysis Of The Role Of Futures Prices, Cash Prices And Government Programs In Acreage Response," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 8(1), pages 1-7, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Carey, Kathleen, 1992. "The U.S. Wheat And Corn Programs: Some Domestic Welfare And International Trade Implications," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 24(1), pages 1-8, July.
    2. Chembezi, Duncan M. & Womack, Abner W., 1992. "Regional Acreage Response For U.S. Corn And Wheat: The Effects Of Government Programs," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 24(1), pages 1-12, July.
    3. Gal Hochman & Scott Kaplan & Deepak Rajagopal & David Zilberman, 2012. "Biofuel and Food-Commodity Prices," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 2(3), pages 1-10, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shideed, Kamil H. & White, Fred C., 1989. "Alternative Forms Of Price Expectations In Supply Analysis For U.S. Corn And Soybean Acreages," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 14(2), pages 1-12, December.
    2. Shideed, Kamil H. & White, Fred C. & Brannen, Stephen J., 1987. "Alternative Procedures For The Formation Of Price Expectations In Supply Response Analysis: An Application To U.S. Corn Acreage," 1987 Annual Meeting, August 2-5, East Lansing, Michigan 269926, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    3. Langley, James A., 1983. "Regional acreage response functions for major US field crops: estimation and policy implications," ISU General Staff Papers 198301010800008678, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    4. Holt, Matthew T., 1989. "Risk, Rational Expectations, and Price Stabilization in the U.S. Corn Market," Staff Papers 200480, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics.
    5. Chavas, Jean-Paul & Pope, Rulon D. & Kao, Robert S., 1983. "An Analysis Of The Role Of Futures Prices, Cash Prices And Government Programs In Acreage Response," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 8(1), pages 1-7, July.
    6. Chembezi, Duncan M. & Womack, Abner W., 1992. "Regional Acreage Response For U.S. Corn And Wheat: The Effects Of Government Programs," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 24(1), pages 1-12, July.
    7. Koo, Won W. & Lehman, James R., 1984. "Effects of Government Programs on Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat Production in the U.S," Agricultural Economics Reports 23141, North Dakota State University, Department of Agribusiness and Applied Economics.
    8. Bailey, Kenneth W. & Womack, Abner W., 1985. "Wheat Acreage Response: A Regional Econometric Investigation," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 17(2), pages 1-10, December.
    9. Lin, Chien-Pang & Barkley, Andrew P., 1997. "Declining Commodity Program Payments and Enhanced Environmental Regulations: Impacts on Acreage Allocation in the Great Plains," 1997 Annual Meeting, July 13-16, 1997, Reno\ Sparks, Nevada 35932, Western Agricultural Economics Association.
    10. Bailey, Kenneth W. & Womack, Abner W., 1985. "Wheat Acreage Response: A Regional Econometric Approach," CNFAP Staff Reports 244132, Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI).
    11. Bakhshi, Samira & Kerr, William A., 2009. "Is There Supply Distortion In The Green Box? An Acreage Response Approach," Working Papers 51093, Canadian Agricultural Trade Policy Research Network.
    12. Holt, Matthew T., 1999. "A Linear Approximate Acreage Allocation Model," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 24(2), pages 1-15, December.
    13. Schoney, R. A., 1990. "An Analysis of Wheat Supply Response Under Risk and Uncertainty," Working Papers 244030, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.
    14. Aradhyula, Satheesh Venkata, 1989. "Policy structure, output supply and input demand for US crops," ISU General Staff Papers 198901010800009909, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    15. Holt, Matthew T., 1991. "A Multi-Market Bounded Prices Model Under Rational Expectations: The Case of Corn and Soybeans in the U.S," 1991 Annual Meeting, August 4-7, Manhattan, Kansas 271199, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    16. Holt, Matthew T., 1989. "A Multi-Market Rational Expectation Model with Bounded Prices: The Case of Corn and Soybeans in the U.S," Staff Papers 200485, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics.
    17. Liu, Hsiang-Hsi, 1983. "An annual simultaneous equation econometric model of U.S. corn and soybean cash and futures markets," ISU General Staff Papers 198301010800009935, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    18. Griffiths, William E. & Anderson, Jock R., 1978. "Specification Of Agricultural Supply Functions - Empirical Evidence On Wheat In Southern N.S.W," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 22(2-3), pages 1-14, August.
    19. Tsai, Grace Yueh-Hsiang, 1989. "A dynamic model of the U.S. cotton market with rational expectations," ISU General Staff Papers 1989010108000012168, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    20. Vroomen, Harry L. & McClelland, John W., 1987. "Misspecification Of Time Series Models In U.S. Agricultural Response Analysis," 1987 Annual Meeting, August 2-5, East Lansing, Michigan 270117, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Demand and Price Analysis;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:sojoae:30211. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/saeaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.