IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ags/ndjtrf/207319.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Microsimulating Automobile Markets: Evolution of Vehicle Holdings and Vehicle Pricing Dynamics

Author

Listed:
  • Selby, Brent
  • Kockelman, Kara M.

Abstract

Vehicle ownership decisions are central to estimates of emissions, gas tax revenues, energy security, pavement management, and other concerns. This work combines an auction-style microsimulation of vehicle prices and random-utility-maximizing choices, producing a market model for the evolution of new and used personal-vehicle fleets. All available vehicles compete directly, with demand, supply, and price signals endogenous to the model. The framework is described, analyzed, and implemented to show its capabilities in predicting outcomes of varying inputs. Application of the model system using Austin, Texas, survey data over a 20-year period highlight the model’s flexibility and reasonable response to multiple inputs, as well as potential implementation issues.

Suggested Citation

  • Selby, Brent & Kockelman, Kara M., 2012. "Microsimulating Automobile Markets: Evolution of Vehicle Holdings and Vehicle Pricing Dynamics," Journal of the Transportation Research Forum, Transportation Research Forum, vol. 51(2).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:ndjtrf:207319
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.207319
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/207319/files/2916-5641-1-PB.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.207319?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Emons, Winand & Sheldon, George, 2002. "The Market for Used Cars: A New Test of the Lemons Model," Discussion Paper Series 26353, Hamburg Institute of International Economics.
    2. Berkovec, James & Rust, John, 1985. "A nested logit model of automobile holdings for one vehicle households," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 275-285, August.
    3. Berry, Steven & Levinsohn, James & Pakes, Ariel, 1995. "Automobile Prices in Market Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(4), pages 841-890, July.
    4. Esteban Susanna, 2007. "Effective Scrappage Subsidies," The B.E. Journal of Theoretical Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-32, February.
    5. Molly Espey & Santosh Nair, 2005. "Automobile Fuel Economy: What Is It Worth?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 23(3), pages 317-323, July.
    6. Karl Storchmann, 2004. "On the Depreciation of Automobiles: An International Comparison," Transportation, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 371-408, November.
    7. Musti, Sashank & Kockelman, Kara M., 2011. "Evolution of the household vehicle fleet: Anticipating fleet composition, PHEV adoption and GHG emissions in Austin, Texas," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 45(8), pages 707-720, October.
    8. Peter Kooreman & Marco Haan, 2006. "Price Anomalies in the Used Car Market," De Economist, Springer, vol. 154(1), pages 41-62, March.
    9. Mueller, Michel G. & de Haan, Peter, 2009. "How much do incentives affect car purchase? Agent-based microsimulation of consumer choice of new cars--Part I: Model structure, simulation of bounded rationality, and model validation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1072-1082, March.
    10. Berkovec, James, 1985. "Forecasting automobile demand using disaggregate choice models," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 315-329, August.
    11. de Haan, Peter & Mueller, Michel G. & Scholz, Roland W., 2009. "How much do incentives affect car purchase? Agent-based microsimulation of consumer choice of new cars--Part II: Forecasting effects of feebates based on energy-efficiency," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1083-1094, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Martin, Elliott William, 2009. "New Vehicle Choice, Fuel Economy and Vehicle Incentives: An Analysis of Hybrid Tax Credits and the Gasoline Tax," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt5gd206wv, University of California Transportation Center.
    2. Martin, Elliot William, 2009. "New Vehicle Choices, Fuel Economy and Vehicle Incentives: An Analysis of Hybrid Tax Credits and Gasoline Tax," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt6sz198c2, University of California Transportation Center.
    3. Chen, Anning, 2011. "Reliable GPS Integer Ambiguity Resolution," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt9gs0t2f9, University of California Transportation Center.
    4. Yang, Yuan & Wang, Can & Liu, Wenling & Zhou, Peng, 2017. "Microsimulation of low carbon urban transport policies in Beijing," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 561-572.
    5. Egnér, Filippa & Trosvik, Lina, 2018. "Electric vehicle adoption in Sweden and the impact of local policy instruments," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 584-596.
    6. Musti, Sashank & Kockelman, Kara M., 2011. "Evolution of the household vehicle fleet: Anticipating fleet composition, PHEV adoption and GHG emissions in Austin, Texas," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 45(8), pages 707-720, October.
    7. Chen Wang & Ricardo Daziano, 2015. "On the problem of measuring discount rates in intertemporal transportation choices," Transportation, Springer, vol. 42(6), pages 1019-1038, November.
    8. Anna Fernández-Antolín & Matthieu Lapparent & Michel Bierlaire, 2018. "Modeling purchases of new cars: an analysis of the 2014 French market," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 84(2), pages 277-303, March.
    9. Martin, Elliot & Shaheen, Susan & Lipman, Timothy & Camel, Madonna, 2014. "Evaluating the public perception of a feebate policy in California through the estimation and cross-validation of an ordinal regression model," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 144-153.
    10. Prieto, Marc & Caemmerer, Barbara & Baltas, George, 2015. "Using a hedonic price model to test prospect theory assertions: The asymmetrical and nonlinear effect of reliability on used car prices," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 206-212.
    11. Choo, Sangho & Mokhtarian, Patricia L., 2002. "The Relationship of Vehicle Type Choice to Personality, Lifestyle, Attitudinal, and Demographic Variables," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt6gx9v8r6, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    12. Coad, Alex & de Haan, Peter & Woersdorfer, Julia Sophie, 2009. "Consumer support for environmental policies: An application to purchases of green cars," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(7), pages 2078-2086, May.
    13. Nayum, Alim & Klöckner, Christian A. & Prugsamatz, Sunita, 2013. "Influences of car type class and carbon dioxide emission levels on purchases of new cars: A retrospective analysis of car purchases in Norway," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 96-108.
    14. Al-Alawi, Baha M. & Bradley, Thomas H., 2013. "Review of hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and electric vehicle market modeling Studies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 190-203.
    15. Wolfgang Sofka & Joerg Zimmermann, 2007. "Regional Dimensions of Liability of Foreignness: Between a Rock and a Hard Place?," Jena Economics Research Papers 2007-023, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    16. Li, Francis G.N. & Trutnevyte, Evelina & Strachan, Neil, 2015. "A review of socio-technical energy transition (STET) models," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 290-305.
    17. D’Haultfœuille, Xavier & Durrmeyer, Isis & Février, Philippe, 2016. "Disentangling sources of vehicle emissions reduction in France: 2003–2008," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 186-229.
    18. Beser Hugosson, Muriel & Algers, Staffan & Habibi, Shiva & Sundbergh, Pia, 2014. "The Swedish car fleet model: evaluation of recent applications," Working papers in Transport Economics 2014:18, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI), revised 10 Nov 2014.
    19. Hunt Allcott & Nathan Wozny, 2014. "Gasoline Prices, Fuel Economy, and the Energy Paradox," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 96(5), pages 779-795, December.
    20. Gnann, Till & Plötz, Patrick & Kühn, André & Wietschel, Martin, 2015. "Modelling market diffusion of electric vehicles with real world driving data – German market and policy options," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 95-112.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Public Economics;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:ndjtrf:207319. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.trforum.org/journal/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.