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Forecasting automobile demand using disaggregate choice models

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  • Berkovec, James

Abstract

This paper presents a simulation model of the American automobile market. The simulation model combines a disaggregate model of household automobile number and type choice with an econometric model of used vehicle scrappage and simple models of new car supply. For fixed vehicle designs, consumer and producer interactions determine new car sales, used car scrappage and consumer vehicle holdings. The model allows automobiles to be highly differentiated and consumers to be heterogeneous. Short-run equilibrium is defined as supply equal to demand for every vehicle type during each market period. The automobile stock then evolves slowly as new vehicles are added and old vehicles are removed during each period. An empirical application of the simulation model with 12 consumer groups and 131 vehicle types is used to forecast automobile holdings. A base case scenario is run for 1978-1984 and compared with the observed market behavior during this period. Several other simulations are then run comparing different gasoline price scenarios with the base case for 1984-1990.

Suggested Citation

  • Berkovec, James, 1985. "Forecasting automobile demand using disaggregate choice models," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 315-329, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transb:v:19:y:1985:i:4:p:315-329
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    Cited by:

    1. Selby, Brent & Kockelman, Kara M., 2012. "Microsimulating Automobile Markets: Evolution of Vehicle Holdings and Vehicle Pricing Dynamics," Journal of the Transportation Research Forum, Transportation Research Forum, vol. 51(2).
    2. Hirota, Keiko, 2007. "Policy for better Air Quality in Asia: Proposal for a Policy Evaluation Method for four ASEAN Countries," MPRA Paper 15081, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 04 Oct 2007.
    3. Beser Hugosson, Muriel & Algers, Staffan & Habibi, Shiva & Sundbergh, Pia, 2016. "Evaluation of the Swedish car fleet model using recent applications," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 30-40.
    4. Musti, Sashank & Kockelman, Kara M., 2011. "Evolution of the household vehicle fleet: Anticipating fleet composition, PHEV adoption and GHG emissions in Austin, Texas," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 45(8), pages 707-720, October.
    5. Lee, Yongseung & Kim, Chongman & Shin, Juneseuk, 2016. "A hybrid electric vehicle market penetration model to identify the best policy mix: A consumer ownership cycle approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 438-449.
    6. de Haan, Peter & Mueller, Michel G. & Scholz, Roland W., 2009. "How much do incentives affect car purchase? Agent-based microsimulation of consumer choice of new cars--Part II: Forecasting effects of feebates based on energy-efficiency," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1083-1094, March.
    7. Choo, Sangho & Mokhtarian, Patricia L., 2002. "The Relationship of Vehicle Type Choice to Personality, Lifestyle, Attitudinal, and Demographic Variables," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt6gx9v8r6, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    8. Martin, Elliott William, 2009. "New Vehicle Choice, Fuel Economy and Vehicle Incentives: An Analysis of Hybrid Tax Credits and the Gasoline Tax," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt5gd206wv, University of California Transportation Center.
    9. Dumortier, Jerome & Siddiki, Saba & Carley, Sanya & Cisney, Joshua & Krause, Rachel M. & Lane, Bradley W. & Rupp, John A. & Graham, John D., 2015. "Effects of providing total cost of ownership information on consumers’ intent to purchase a hybrid or plug-in electric vehicle," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 71-86.
    10. Drebee, Hayder Abbas & Abdul Razak, Nor Azam & karim, mohd, 2014. "Is There an Overlapping Market between National Car Producers in Malaysia?," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 48(1), pages 75-85.
    11. Martin, Elliot William, 2009. "New Vehicle Choices, Fuel Economy and Vehicle Incentives: An Analysis of Hybrid Tax Credits and Gasoline Tax," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt6sz198c2, University of California Transportation Center.
    12. Choo, Sangho & Mokhtarian, Patricia L., 2004. "What type of vehicle do people drive? The role of attitude and lifestyle in influencing vehicle type choice," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt7vg1057g, University of California Transportation Center.
    13. Sa-ngasoongsong, Akkarapol & Bukkapatnam, Satish T.S. & Kim, Jaebeom & Iyer, Parameshwaran S. & Suresh, R.P., 2012. "Multi-step sales forecasting in automotive industry based on structural relationship identification," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 875-887.
    14. Choo, Sangho & Mokhtarian, Patricia L., 2004. "What type of vehicle do people drive? The role of attitude and lifestyle in influencing vehicle type choice," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 201-222, March.
    15. Bhat, Chandra R. & Sen, Sudeshna & Eluru, Naveen, 2009. "The impact of demographics, built environment attributes, vehicle characteristics, and gasoline prices on household vehicle holdings and use," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 1-18, January.
    16. Golob, Thomas F. & Kim, Seyoung & Ren, Weiping, 1996. "How households use different types of vehicles: A structural driver allocation and usage model," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 103-118, March.
    17. Pierdzioch, Christian & Rülke, Jan-Christoph & Stadtmann, Georg, 2011. "Forecasting U.S. car sales and car registrations in Japan: Rationality, accuracy and herding," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 253-258.
    18. Al-Alawi, Baha M. & Bradley, Thomas H., 2013. "Review of hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and electric vehicle market modeling Studies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 190-203.
    19. Chen, Anning, 2011. "Reliable GPS Integer Ambiguity Resolution," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt9gs0t2f9, University of California Transportation Center.
    20. Anna Fernández-Antolín & Matthieu Lapparent & Michel Bierlaire, 2018. "Modeling purchases of new cars: an analysis of the 2014 French market," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 84(2), pages 277-303, March.
    21. Siskos, Pelopidas & Moysoglou, Yannis, 2019. "Assessing the impacts of setting CO2 emission targets on truck manufacturers: A model implementation and application for the EU," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 123-138.
    22. Baltas, George & Saridakis, Charalampos, 2013. "An empirical investigation of the impact of behavioural and psychographic consumer characteristics on car preferences: An integrated model of car type choice," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 92-110.
    23. Beser Hugosson, Muriel & Algers, Staffan & Habibi, Shiva & Sundbergh, Pia, 2014. "The Swedish car fleet model: evaluation of recent applications," Working papers in Transport Economics 2014:18, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI), revised 10 Nov 2014.
    24. Bhat, Chandra R. & Sen, Sudeshna, 2006. "Household vehicle type holdings and usage: an application of the multiple discrete-continuous extreme value (MDCEV) model," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 35-53, January.

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