Intermediate Volatility Forecasts Using Implied Forward Volatility: The Performance of Selected Agricultural Commodity Options
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.8637
Download full text from publisher
Other versions of this item:
- Egelkraut, Thorsten M. & Garcia, Philip, 2005. "Intermediate Volatility Forecasts Using Implied Forward Volatility: The Performance of Selected Agricultural Commodity Options," 2005 Conference, April 18-19, 2005, St. Louis, Missouri 19033, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
References listed on IDEAS
- Thorsten M. Egelkraut & Philip Garcia & Bruce J. Sherrick, 2007.
"The Term Structure of Implied Forward Volatility: Recovery and Informational Content in the Corn Options Market,"
American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 89(1), pages 1-11.
- Egelkraut, Thorsten M. & Garcia, Philip & Sherrick, Bruce J., 2003. "The Term Structure Of Implied Forward Volatility: Recovery And Informational Content In The Corn Options Market," 2003 Conference, April 21-22, 2003, St. Louis, Missouri 18983, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
- Barone-Adesi, Giovanni & Whaley, Robert E, 1987. "Efficient Analytic Approximation of American Option Values," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(2), pages 301-320, June.
- Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 2000.
"How Relevant is Volatility Forecasting for Financial Risk Management?,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(1), pages 12-22, February.
- Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 1997. "How Relevant is Volatility Forecasting for Financial Risk Management?," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 97-45, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
- Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 1998. "How Relevant is Volatility Forecasting for Financial Risk Management?," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 98-080, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
- Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 1998. "How Relevant is Volatility Forecasting for Financial Risk Management?," NBER Working Papers 6844, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986.
"Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- Andersen, Torben G & Bollerslev, Tim, 1998. "Answering the Skeptics: Yes, Standard Volatility Models Do Provide Accurate Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 885-905, November.
- Black, Fischer, 1976. "The pricing of commodity contracts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 167-179.
- Christensen, B. J. & Prabhala, N. R., 1998. "The relation between implied and realized volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 125-150, November.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
- Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George & Klein, Tony & Walther, Thomas, 2022.
"Forecasting realized volatility of agricultural commodities,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 74-96.
- Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George & Klein, Tony & Walther, Thomas, 2019. "Forecasting Realized Volatility of Agricultural Commodities," MPRA Paper 96267, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Andres Trujillo-Barrera & Philip Garcia & Mindy L Mallory, 2018. "Short-term price density forecasts in the lean hog futures market," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 45(1), pages 121-142.
- Brittain, Lee & Garcia, Philip & Irwin, Scott H., 2011.
"Live and Feeder Cattle Options Markets: Returns, Risk, and Volatility Forecasting,"
Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 36(1), pages 1-20, April.
- Brittain, Lee & Garcia, Philip & Irwin, Scott H., 2009. "Live and Feeder Cattle Options Markets: Returns, Risk, and Volatility Forecasting," 2009 Conference, April 20-21, 2009, St. Louis, Missouri 53038, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
- Adjemian, Michael K. & Bruno, Valentina G. & Robe, Michel A., 2016. "Forward‐Looking USDA Price Forecasts," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235931, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
- Giovanni Campisi & Silvia Muzzioli, 2021. "Designing volatility indices for Austria, Finland and Spain," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 35(3), pages 369-455, September.
- Matteo Bonato & Oğuzhan Çepni & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2023.
"El Niño, La Niña, and forecastability of the realized variance of agricultural commodity prices: Evidence from a machine learning approach,"
Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(4), pages 785-801, July.
- Matteo Bonato & Oguzhan Cepni & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2021. "El Nino, La Nina, and Forecastability of the Realized Variance of Agricultural Commodity Prices: Evidence from a Machine Learning Approach," Working Papers 202179, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Adrian Fernandez‐Perez & Bart Frijns & Ilnara Gafiatullina & Alireza Tourani‐Rad, 2019. "Properties and the predictive power of implied volatility in the New Zealand dairy market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(5), pages 612-631, May.
- Guimaraes, Jonathan S. & Cruz, Jose Cesar, 2017. "Future volatility forecast in agricultural commodity markets," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 258480, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Neely, Christopher J., 2009.
"Forecasting foreign exchange volatility: Why is implied volatility biased and inefficient? And does it matter?,"
Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 188-205, February.
- Christopher J. Neely, 2004. "Forecasting foreign exchange volatility: why is implied volatility biased and inefficient? and does it matter?," Working Papers 2002-017, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Guimaraes, Jonathan S. & Cruz, Jose Cesar, 2017. "Future volatility forecast in agricultural commodity markets," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 258480, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
- Prokopczuk, Marcel & Wese Simen, Chardin, 2014. "The importance of the volatility risk premium for volatility forecasting," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 303-320.
- Benavides Guillermo, 2006. "Volatility Forecasts for the Mexican Peso - U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate: An Empirical Analysis of Garch, Option Implied and Composite Forecast Models," Working Papers 2006-04, Banco de México.
- Florian Ielpo & Benoît Sévi, 2014. "Forecasting the density of oil futures," Working Papers 2014-601, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
- Robert Ślepaczuk & Grzegorz Zakrzewski, 2009. "High-Frequency and Model-Free Volatility Estimators," Working Papers 2009-13, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
- Zhiguang Wang & Scott W. Fausti & Bashir A. Qasmi, 2012.
"Variance risk premiums and predictive power of alternative forward variances in the corn market,"
Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(6), pages 587-608, June.
- Wang, Zhiguang & Fausti, Scott W. & Qasmi, Bashir A., 2010. "Variance Risk Premiums and Predictive Power of Alternative Forward Variances in the Corn Market," Economics Staff Papers 61683, South Dakota State University, Department of Economics.
- Li, Xingyi & Zakamulin, Valeriy, 2020. "The term structure of volatility predictability," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 723-737.
- Christopher J. Neely, 2004. "Implied volatility from options on gold futures: do statistical forecasts add value or simply paint the lilly?," Working Papers 2003-018, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Athanasia Gavala & Nikolay Gospodinov & Deming Jiang, 2006. "Forecasting volatility," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(6), pages 381-400.
- Mittnik, Stefan & Robinzonov, Nikolay & Spindler, Martin, 2015. "Stock market volatility: Identifying major drivers and the nature of their impact," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 1-14.
- Christoffersen, Peter & Jacobs, Kris & Chang, Bo Young, 2013.
"Forecasting with Option-Implied Information,"
Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 581-656,
Elsevier.
- Peter Christoffersen & Kris Jacobs & Bo Young Chang, 2011. "Forecasting with Option Implied Information," CREATES Research Papers 2011-46, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
- Filip Žikeš & Jozef Baruník, 2016.
"Semi-parametric Conditional Quantile Models for Financial Returns and Realized Volatility,"
Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(1), pages 185-226.
- Filip Zikes & Jozef Barunik, 2013. "Semiparametric Conditional Quantile Models for Financial Returns and Realized Volatility," Papers 1308.4276, arXiv.org.
- Žikeš, Filip & Baruník, Jozef, 2014. "Semiparametric Conditional Quantile Models for Financial Returns and Realized Volatility," FinMaP-Working Papers 20, Collaborative EU Project FinMaP - Financial Distortions and Macroeconomic Performance: Expectations, Constraints and Interaction of Agents.
- Szakmary, Andrew & Ors, Evren & Kyoung Kim, Jin & Davidson, Wallace III, 2003. "The predictive power of implied volatility: Evidence from 35 futures markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(11), pages 2151-2175, November.
- Koopman, Siem Jan & Jungbacker, Borus & Hol, Eugenie, 2005.
"Forecasting daily variability of the S&P 100 stock index using historical, realised and implied volatility measurements,"
Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 445-475, June.
- Siem Jan Koopman & Borus Jungbacker & Eugenie Hol, 2004. "Forecasting Daily Variability of the S&P 100 Stock Index using Historical, Realised and Implied Volatility Measurements," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 04-016/4, Tinbergen Institute.
- Eugenie Hol & Siem Jan Koopman & Borus Jungbacker, 2004. "Forecasting daily variability of the S\&P 100 stock index using historical, realised and implied volatility measurements," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 342, Society for Computational Economics.
- Aurea Grané & Helena Veiga, 2012. "Asymmetry, realised volatility and stock return risk estimates," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 11(2), pages 147-164, August.
- Meddahi, Nour & Renault, Eric, 2004.
"Temporal aggregation of volatility models,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 119(2), pages 355-379, April.
- Nour Meddahi & Eric Renault, 2000. "Temporal Aggregation of Volatility Models," CIRANO Working Papers 2000s-22, CIRANO.
- Nour Meddahi, 2000. "Temporal Aggregation of Volatility Models," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1903, Econometric Society.
- Bali, Turan G. & Weinbaum, David, 2007. "A conditional extreme value volatility estimator based on high-frequency returns," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 361-397, February.
- Eugenie Hol & Siem Jan Koopman, 2000. "Forecasting the Variability of Stock Index Returns with Stochastic Volatility Models and Implied Volatility," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 00-104/4, Tinbergen Institute.
- José Valentim Machado Vicente & Gustavo Silva Araujo & Paula Baião Fisher de Castro & Felipe Noronha Tavares, 2014.
"Assessing Day-to-Day Volatility: Does the Trading Time Matter?,"
Brazilian Review of Finance, Brazilian Society of Finance, vol. 12(1), pages 41-66.
- José Valentim Machado Vicente & Gustavo Silva Araújo & Paula Baião Fisher De Castro & Felipe Noronha Tavares, 2014. "Assessing Day-To-Day Volatility: Doesthe Trading Time Matter?," Anais do XL Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 40th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 130, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
Corrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:jlaare:8637. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/waeaaea.html .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.