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Forecasting Agricultural Land Values in the Midwest States1

Author

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  • Helmers, Glenn
  • Shaik, Saleem
  • Johnson, Bruce

Abstract

From a practical stand point, the precision and robustness of forecasting agricultural land values are evaluated in two out-of-sample time periods. Empirical application to five Midwestern states in the U.S. indicates the annually updated model performed well.

Suggested Citation

  • Helmers, Glenn & Shaik, Saleem & Johnson, Bruce, 2005. "Forecasting Agricultural Land Values in the Midwest States1," Journal of the ASFMRA, American Society of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers, vol. 2005, pages 1-8.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:jasfmr:190715
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.190715
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    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/190715/files/232.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Richard E. Just & John A. Miranowski, 1993. "Understanding Farmland Price Changes," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 75(1), pages 156-168.
    2. Sergio H. Lence, 2001. "Farmland Prices in the Presence of Transaction Costs: A Cautionary Note," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 83(4), pages 985-992.
    3. Christofides, Louis N., 1991. "In-sample and out-of-sample forecasts of wage adjustment in indexed and non-indexed labour contracts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 171-181, August.
    4. J. Stephen Clark & Murray Fulton & John T. Scott, 1993. "The Inconsistency of Land Values, Land Rents, and Capitalization Formulas," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 75(1), pages 147-155.
    5. Jean-Paul Chavas & Alban Thomas, 1999. "A Dynamic Analysis of Land Prices," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 81(4), pages 772-784.
    6. Lesage, James P., 1989. "Incorporating regional wage relations in local forecasting models with a Bayesian prior," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 37-47.
    7. LeSage, James P. & Magura, Michael, 1991. "Using interindustry input-output relations as a Bayesian prior in employment forecasting models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 231-238, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Styan, Jacob & Boerngen, Maria A. & Barrowclough, Michael J., 2021. "Factors Influencing Increased Usage of Cash Rent Leases in Illinois," Journal of the ASFMRA, American Society of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers, vol. 2021.
    2. Painter, Marvin, 2008. "Is Canadian Farmland Overpriced?," Journal of the ASFMRA, American Society of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers, vol. 2008, pages 1-15.

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    Keywords

    Agricultural Finance; Land Economics/Use;

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