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Forecasting Agricultural Land Values in the Midwest States1

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  • Helmers, Glenn
  • Shaik, Saleem
  • Johnson, Bruce

Abstract

From a practical stand point, the precision and robustness of forecasting agricultural land values are evaluated in two out-of-sample time periods. Empirical application to five Midwestern states in the U.S. indicates the annually updated model performed well.

Suggested Citation

  • Helmers, Glenn & Shaik, Saleem & Johnson, Bruce, 2005. "Forecasting Agricultural Land Values in the Midwest States1," Journal of the ASFMRA, American Society of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers, vol. 2005, pages 1-8.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:jasfmr:190715
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.190715
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    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/190715/files/232.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Richard E. Just & John A. Miranowski, 1993. "Understanding Farmland Price Changes," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 75(1), pages 156-168.
    2. Sergio H. Lence, 2001. "Farmland Prices in the Presence of Transaction Costs: A Cautionary Note," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 83(4), pages 985-992.
    3. Christofides, Louis N., 1991. "In-sample and out-of-sample forecasts of wage adjustment in indexed and non-indexed labour contracts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 171-181, August.
    4. J. Stephen Clark & Murray Fulton & John T. Scott, 1993. "The Inconsistency of Land Values, Land Rents, and Capitalization Formulas," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 75(1), pages 147-155.
    5. Jean-Paul Chavas & Alban Thomas, 1999. "A Dynamic Analysis of Land Prices," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 81(4), pages 772-784.
    6. Lesage, James P., 1989. "Incorporating regional wage relations in local forecasting models with a Bayesian prior," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 37-47.
    7. LeSage, James P. & Magura, Michael, 1991. "Using interindustry input-output relations as a Bayesian prior in employment forecasting models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 231-238, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Painter, Marvin, 2008. "Is Canadian Farmland Overpriced?," Journal of the ASFMRA, American Society of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers, vol. 2008, pages 1-15.
    2. Styan, Jacob & Boerngen, Maria A. & Barrowclough, Michael J., 2021. "Factors Influencing Increased Usage of Cash Rent Leases in Illinois," Journal of the ASFMRA, American Society of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers, vol. 2021.

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    Keywords

    Agricultural Finance; Land Economics/Use;

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