Potenziale für eine Verminderung des Fleischkonsums am Beispiel Deutschland und Auswirkungen einer Konsumreduktion in OECD-Ländern auf globale Marktbilanzen und Preise für Nahrungsmittel

Due to its high resource use and negative impacts on the environment (e.g. climate effects and land-use intensity) the production of animal-based food products is increasingly criticized. Moreover, high consumption of meat is linked with negative impacts on consumer health. In light of these aspects, this study analyses the potential capacity for reduced meat consumption in industrialized countries and likely effects on global agricultural markets. Representative nutrition data for Germany taken from the “Nationale Verzehrsstudie II” (National Nutrition Survey II) are analyzed in order to evaluate whether, and if so to what extent, consumers are prepared to reduce consumption and how reduced meat consumption would then be substituted for by other food products. These findings are then transferred to the populations of other OECD countries. The assessed reduction potential and related substitution processes are entered into a complex modeling simulation (economic equilibrium model), to determine effects on global agricultural markets. Regarding consumer behavior, our analysis shows that a reduction of meat consumption is not completely substituted for by an increase of other food products. Instead, demand for most other food products is reduced as well. The main result of the modeling analysis is that the effects of lower meat demand in the OECD on world food security are dampened as a result of several adaptation and compensation processes. Die Produktion tierischer Lebensmittel wird auf Grund ihrer hohen Ressourcenintensität und negativen Umwelteffekte (Klimawirkungen, Flächenintensität) zunehmend kritisch diskutiert. Zudem ist ein hoher Konsum von Fleisch mit negativen Auswirkungen für die Gesundheit von Konsumenten verbunden. Vor diesem Hintergrund beschäftigt sich dieser Beitrag mit den Möglichkeiten und Folgen einer Reduktion des Fleischkonsums in Industrieländern für die globalen Agrarmärkte. Anhand der für Deutschland repräsentativen Ernährungsdaten der Nati(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)