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Dynamic Diffusion with Disadoption: The Case of Crop Biotechnology in the USA

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  • Fernandez-Cornejo, Jorge
  • Alexander, Corinne E.
  • Goodhue, Rachael E.

Abstract

Controversy over the use of genetically engineered (GE) crops may have induced some farmers to disadopt these seeds, making a traditional diffusion model inappropriate. In this study, we develop and estimate a dynamic diffusion model, examine the diffusion paths of GE corn, soybeans, and cotton, predict the adoption of those crops over the next two years, and explore the main determinants of the diffusion rate. Our estimates indicate that future growth of Bt crops will be slower or negative, depending mainly on the infestation levels of the target pests. Adoption of herbicide-tolerant soybeans and cotton will continue to increase, unless consumer sentiment in the United States changes radically.

Suggested Citation

  • Fernandez-Cornejo, Jorge & Alexander, Corinne E. & Goodhue, Rachael E., 2002. "Dynamic Diffusion with Disadoption: The Case of Crop Biotechnology in the USA," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 31(1), pages 1-15, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:arerjl:31479
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.31479
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    Cited by:

    1. Kimhi, Ayal & Rubin, Ofir D., 2006. "Assessing The Response Of Farm Households To Dairy Policy Reform In Israel," Discussion Papers 7134, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Department of Agricultural Economics and Management.
    2. Ursula Aldana & Jeremy D. Foltz & Bradford L. Barham & Pilar Useche, 2010. "Sequential Adoption of Package Technologies: The Dynamics of Stacked Trait Corn Adoption," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 93(1), pages 130-143.
    3. Xingliang Ma & Guanming Shi, 2015. "A dynamic adoption model with Bayesian learning: an application to U.S. soybean farmers," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 46(1), pages 25-38, January.
    4. Yoo, Do-il, 2012. "Individual and Social Learning in Bio-technology Adoption: The Case of GM Corn in the U.S," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124975, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    5. Fernandez-Cornejo, Jorge & Nehring, Richard & Osteen, Craig & Wechsler, Seth James & Martin, Andrew & Vialou, Alex, 2014. "Pesticide Use in U.S. Agriculture: 21 Selected Crops, 1960-2008," Economic Information Bulletin 178462, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    6. Julien Milanesi & Marion Desquilbet & E. Luch & R. Rocha de Santos, 2009. "Current and future availability of non-genetically modified soybean seeds in the U.S., Brazil and Argentina," Working Papers hal-02285602, HAL.
    7. Xu, Pei & Wang, Zhigang, 2012. "Factors Affect Chinese Producers' Adoption of a New Production Technology: Survey Results from Chinese Fruits Producers," Agricultural Economics Review, Greek Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 13(2), pages 1-16.
    8. Gyau, Amos & Voss, Julian & Spiller, Achim & Enneking, Ulrich, 2009. "Farmer Acceptance of Genetically Modified seeds in Germany: Results of a Cluster Analysis," International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, International Food and Agribusiness Management Association, vol. 12(4), pages 1-20, November.
    9. Useche, Pilar & Barham, Bradford & Foltz, Jeremy, 2006. "A Trait Specific Model of GM Crop Adoption by Minnesota and Wisconsin Corn Farmers," Working Papers 201525, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Food System Research Group.
    10. Swinton, Scott M., 2004. "Assessing Economic Impacts Of Natural Resource Management Using Economic Surplus," Staff Paper Series 11668, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
    11. Gardner, Justin G. & Nelson, Carl H., 2007. "Genetically Modified Crops and Labor Savings in US Crop Production," 2007 Annual Meeting, February 4-7, 2007, Mobile, Alabama 34919, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    12. Gedikoglu, Haluk & McCann, Laura M.J., 2009. "Disadoption of Agricultural Practices by Livestock Farmers," 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 49404, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

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    Keywords

    Crop Production/Industries;

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