IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ags/aareaj/162003.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Managing forests, livestock, and crops under global warming: a micro-econometric analysis of land use changes in Africa

Author

Listed:
  • Seo, S. Niggol

Abstract

This paper examines potential land use changes in Africa under climate change by building an integrated model of crop management, animal husbandry, and forestry. Using micro-level decisions from around 9000 household surveys in 11 countries, we analyze the choice of land types across the landscape with a multinomial discrete choice model. The choices and future adaptation measures are analyzed as a mosaic based on the typology of Agro-Ecological Zones. The results indicate that if climate becomes hotter and drier, Africa will adapt by increasing a joint production of crops and animals, especially in the lowland savannahs. On the other hand, if climate becomes wetter, it will switch more to forests, either with crops or with both crops and livestock, especially in the mid and high elevation humid zones. Forestry will play a significant role in adaptation when a substantial increase in precipitation makes animal husbandry an unattractive alternative.

Suggested Citation

  • Seo, S. Niggol, 2010. "Managing forests, livestock, and crops under global warming: a micro-econometric analysis of land use changes in Africa," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 54(2), pages 1-20.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aareaj:162003
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.162003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/162003/files/j.1467-8489.2010.00487.x.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.162003?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Anderson, Kym, 2009. "Five Decades of Distortions to Agricultural Incentives," Agricultural Distortions Working Paper Series 48742, World Bank.
    2. Seo S. Niggol & Mendelsohn Robert & Dinar Ariel & Kurukulasuriya Pradeep, 2009. "Adapting to Climate Change Mosaically: An Analysis of African Livestock Management by Agro-Ecological Zones," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 9(2), pages 1-37, March.
    3. Anderson, Kym & Swinnen, Johan F.M., 2009. "Distortions to Agricultural Incentives in Eastern Europe and Central Asia," Agricultural Distortions Working Paper Series 48624, World Bank.
    4. Pradeep Kurukulasuriya & Robert Mendelsohn & Rashid Hassan & James Benhin & Temesgen Deressa & Mbaye Diop & Helmy Mohamed Eid & K. Yerfi Fosu & Glwadys Gbetibouo & Suman Jain & Ali Mahamadou & Renneth, 2006. "Will African Agriculture Survive Climate Change?," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 20(3), pages 367-388.
    5. Mendelsohn, Robert & Nordhaus, William D & Shaw, Daigee, 1994. "The Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture: A Ricardian Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 753-771, September.
    6. Vedeld, Paul & Angelsen, Arild & Bojo, Jan & Sjaastad, Espen & Kobugabe Berg, Gertrude, 2007. "Forest environmental incomes and the rural poor," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(7), pages 869-879, April.
    7. Schlenker, Wolfram & Hanemann, W. Michael & Fisher, Anthony C., 2004. "Will U.S. Agriculture Really Benefit from Global Warming? Accounting for Irrigation in the Hedonic Approach," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt65s781bh, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
    8. Kym Anderson & Will Martin, 2009. "Distortions to Agricultural Incentives in Asia," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 2611.
    9. Train,Kenneth E., 2009. "Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521766555.
    10. Kym Anderson, 2009. "Distortions to Agricultural Incentives : A Global Perspective, 1955-2007," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 9436.
    11. S. Niggol Seo & Robert Mendelsohn, 2008. "Measuring impacts and adaptations to climate change: a structural Ricardian model of African livestock management-super-1," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 38(2), pages 151-165, March.
    12. Kym Anderson & William A. Masters, 2009. "Distortions to Agricultural Incentives in Africa," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 2607.
    13. Olivier Deschênes & Michael Greenstone, 2007. "The Economic Impacts of Climate Change: Evidence from Agricultural Output and Random Fluctuations in Weather," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 354-385, March.
    14. Wolfram Schlenker & W. Michael Hanemann & Anthony C. Fisher, 2005. "Will U.S. Agriculture Really Benefit from Global Warming? Accounting for Irrigation in the Hedonic Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 395-406, March.
    15. Kym Anderson, 2009. "Distortions to Agricultural Versus Nonagricultural Producer Incentives," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 55-74, September.
    16. Sohngen, Brent & Mendelsohn, Robert, 1998. "Valuing the Impact of Large-Scale Ecological Change in a Market: The Effect of Climate Change on U.S. Timber," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(4), pages 686-710, September.
    17. Nin, Alejandro & Ehui, Simeon & Benin, Samuel, 2007. "Livestock Productivity in Developing Countries: An Assessment," Handbook of Agricultural Economics, in: Robert Evenson & Prabhu Pingali (ed.), Handbook of Agricultural Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 47, pages 2461-2532, Elsevier.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Otieno, Jackson & Muchapondwa, Edwin & Ntuli, Herbert, 2023. "The odds of South African agriculture using wildlife ranching to adapt to climate change," African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, African Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 18(1), May.
    2. Seo, S. Niggol, 2011. "An analysis of public adaptation to climate change using agricultural water schemes in South America," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(4), pages 825-834, February.
    3. McCarl, Bruce A. & Attavanich, Witsanu & Musumba, Mark & Mu, Jianhong E. & Aisabokhae, Ruth, 2011. "Land Use and Climate Change," MPRA Paper 83993, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2014.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bhattacharjee, Subhra, 2012. "Comment," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 123330, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. S. Niggol Seo, 2012. "Adapting Natural Resource Enterprises under Global Warming in South America: A Mixed Logit Analysis," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Spring 20), pages 111-142, January.
    3. S. Niggol Seo, 2011. "The impacts of climate change on Australia and New Zealand: a Gross Cell Product analysis by land cover," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 55(2), pages 220-238, April.
    4. Jean Balié & Davide Del Prete & Emiliano Magrini & Pierluigi Montalbano & Silvia Nenci, 2017. "Agriculture and Food Global Value Chains in Sub-Saharan Africa: Does bilateral trade policy impact on backward and forward participation?," Working Papers 4/17, Sapienza University of Rome, DISS.
    5. Tangermann, Stefan, 2011. "Risk Management in Agriculture and the Future of the EU's Common Agricultural Policy," National Policies, Trade and Sustainable Development 320171, International Centre for Trade and Sustainable Development (ICTSD).
    6. B Kelsey Jack, "undated". "Market Inefficiencies and the Adoption of Agricultural Technologies in Developing Countries," CID Working Papers 50, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    7. Rodolfo Stucchi & Ezequiel Garcia-Lembergman & Martin A. Rossi, 2018. "The Impact of Export Restrictions on Production: A Synthetic Control Approach," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Spring 20), pages 147-173, May.
    8. Kym Anderson, 2023. "Loss of preferential access to the protected EU sugar market: Fiji's response," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 67(3), pages 480-499, July.
    9. Derek D. Headey, 2016. "The evolution of global farming land: facts and interpretations," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 47(S1), pages 185-196, November.
    10. Johan Swinnen & Alessandro Olper & Senne Vandevelde, 2021. "From unfair prices to unfair trading practices: Political economy, value chains and 21st century agri‐food policy," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 52(5), pages 771-788, September.
    11. Seo, Niggol & Mendelsohn, Robert & Dinar, Ariel & Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep & Hassan, Rashid, 2008. "Long-term adaptation : selecting farm types across agro-ecological zones in Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4602, The World Bank.
    12. Kamel Louhichi & Aymeric Ricome & Sergio Gomez y Paloma, 2022. "Impacts of agricultural taxation in Sub‐Saharan Africa: Insights from agricultural produce cess in Tanzania," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 53(5), pages 671-686, September.
    13. Kalkuhl, Matthias & Fernandez Milan, Blanca & Schwerhoff, Gregor & Jakob, Michael & Hahnen, Maren & Creutzig, Felix, 2017. "Fiscal Instruments for Sustainable Development: The Case of Land Taxes," MPRA Paper 78652, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Kym Anderson & Ernesto Valenzuela, 2021. "What impact are subsidies and trade barriers abroad having on Australasian and Brazilian agriculture?," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 65(2), pages 265-290, April.
    15. Andrew Ojede & Amin Mugera & Daigyo Seo, 2013. "Macroeconomic Policy Reforms And Productivity Growth In African Agriculture," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 31(4), pages 814-830, October.
    16. Florence Bouvet & Roy Bower & Jason C. Jones, 2022. "Currency Devaluation as a Source of Growth in Africa: A Synthetic Control Approach," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 48(3), pages 367-389, June.
    17. Garrone, Maria & Emmers, Dorien & Olper, Alessandro & Swinnen, Johan, 2019. "Jobs and agricultural policy: Impact of the common agricultural policy on EU agricultural employment," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 1-1.
    18. Magrini, Emiliano & Morales-Opazo, Cristian & Balie, Jean, 2014. "Supply response along the value chain in selected SSA countries: the case of grains," 2014: Food, Resources and Conflict, December 7-9, 2014. San Diego, California 197193, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    19. Johnson, Michael E. & Dorosh, Paul A., 2015. "Optimal tariffs with smuggling: A spatial analysis of Nigerian rice policy options:," IFPRI discussion papers 1493, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:aareaj:162003. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aaresea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.