IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/agr/journl/vxxivy2017i2(611)p221-236.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An examination of bilateral J-curve: Evidence from Turkey and her 20 major trading partners

Author

Listed:
  • Şerife ÖZŞAHİN

    (Necmettin Erbakan University, Turkey)

Abstract

There are two methods to determine the impact of real exchange rate on balance of foreign trade. While previous studies, which aim to uncover the nexus between foreign balance and real exchange rate, use foreign trade statistics to measure the volume of foreign trade, some other recent studies utilize bilateral trade statistics. By following current literature, this study draws from the model of Rose and Yellen (1989) and analyzes the relationship between the volume of bilateral foreign trade and bilateral real exchange rate in Turkey and her 20 major trading partners for the period from 1995 to 2015. To this purpose, the presence of cross-sectional dependence among the countries was investigated, and long-term coefficients for each country were obtained with the Mean Group Estimator (MG) method developed by Pesaran and Smith (1995). In conclusion, the findings revealed that bilateral real exchange rate has a statistically significant negative effect on the bilateral foreign trade balance in 10 out of 20 countries in the panel. This negative relationship means that depreciation of the Turkish Lira (TL) against the currency of trading partners improves bilateral foreign balance, and thus, the J-curve effect in these countries is verified. Moreover, Canning and Pedroni (2008) panel causality test results indicate that bilateral real exchange rates cause bilateral foreign trade balance in Turkey with her 14 trading partners.

Suggested Citation

  • Şerife ÖZŞAHİN, 2017. "An examination of bilateral J-curve: Evidence from Turkey and her 20 major trading partners," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(2(611), S), pages 221-236, Summer.
    • Handle: RePEc:agr:journl:v:xxiv:y:2017:i:2(611):p:221-236
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://store.ectap.ro/articole/1280.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.ectap.ro/articol.php?id=1280&rid=127
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rose, Andrew K. & Yellen, Janet L., 1989. "Is there a J-curve?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 53-68, July.
    2. Hashem Pesaran, M. & Yamagata, Takashi, 2008. "Testing slope homogeneity in large panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 50-93, January.
    3. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Charikleia Economidou & Gour Goswami, 2006. "Bilateral J-curve between the UK vis-a-vis her major trading partners," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(8), pages 879-888.
    4. Helen B. Junz & Rudolf R. Rhomberg, 1973. "Price competitiveness in export trade among industrial countries," International Finance Discussion Papers 22, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Peter Pedroni, 1999. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(S1), pages 653-670, November.
    6. M. Hashem Pesaran & Aman Ullah & Takashi Yamagata, 2008. "A bias-adjusted LM test of error cross-section independence," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 11(1), pages 105-127, March.
    7. Kaddour Hadri, 2000. "Testing for stationarity in heterogeneous panel data," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 3(2), pages 148-161.
    8. Bilin Neyaptı & Fatma Taskın & Murat Ungor, 2007. "Has European Customs Union Agreement really affected Turkey's trade?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(16), pages 2121-2132.
    9. Nezih Guner & Gustavo Ventura & Xu Yi, 2008. "Macroeconomic Implications of Size-Dependent Policies," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(4), pages 721-744, October.
    10. David Canning & Peter Pedroni, 2008. "Infrastructure, Long‐Run Economic Growth And Causality Tests For Cointegrated Panels," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 76(5), pages 504-527, September.
    11. Giancarlo Gandolfo, 2016. "International Finance and Open-Economy Macroeconomics," Springer Texts in Business and Economics, Springer, edition 2, number 978-3-662-49862-0, June.
    12. Kao, Chihwa, 1999. "Spurious regression and residual-based tests for cointegration in panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 1-44, May.
    13. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995. "Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July.
    14. Junz, Helen B & Rhomberg, Rudolf R, 1973. "Price Competitiveness in Export Trade Among Industrial Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(2), pages 412-418, May.
    15. R. Scott Hacker & Abdulnasser Hatemi‐J, 2004. "The effect of exchange rate changes on trade balances in the short and long run," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 12(4), pages 777-799, December.
    16. Stephen P. Magee, 1973. "Currency Contracts, Pass-Through, and Devaluation," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 4(1), pages 303-325.
    17. Lal, Anil K. & Lowinger, Thomas C., 2002. "The J-Curve: Evidence from East Asia," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 17, pages 397-415.
    18. repec:bla:obuest:v:61:y:1999:i:0:p:653-70 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Yongqing Wang, 2006. "The J Curve: China Versus Her Trading Partners," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(4), pages 323-343, October.
    20. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
    21. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Artatrana Ratha, 2004. "The J-Curve: a literature review," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(13), pages 1377-1398.
    22. M. Bahmani-Oskooee & Gour Goswami, 2003. "A disaggregated approach to test the J-Curve phenomenon: Japan versus her major trading partners," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 27(1), pages 102-113, March.
    23. Kimbugwe, Hassan, 2006. "The bilateral J-Curve hypothesis between Turkey and her 9 trading partners," MPRA Paper 4254, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Trofimov, Ivan D., 2020. "Is There a J-Curve Effect in the Services Trade in Canada? A Panel Data Analysis," MPRA Paper 106704, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Hsing Yu, 2008. "A Study of the J-Curve for Seven Selected Latin American Countries," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 8(4), pages 1-14, December.
    3. Hsing, Yu, 2009. "Test of the J-curve for the DR-CAFTA countries and policy implications," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 293-301, September.
    4. Cem IŞIK & Magdalena RADULESCU & Aleksandra FEDAJEV, 2019. "The effects of exchange rate depreciations and appreciations on the tourism trade balance: the case of Spain," Eastern Journal of European Studies, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 10, pages 221-237, June.
    5. Qamruzzaman, Md, 2022. "Nexus between renewable energy, foreign direct investment, and agro-productivity: The mediating role of carbon emission," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 526-540.
    6. Halicioglu, Ferda, 2008. "The bilateral J-curve: Turkey versus her 13 trading partners," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 236-243, June.
    7. Chiu, Yi-Bin & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Sun, Chia-Hung, 2010. "The U.S. trade imbalance and real exchange rate: An application of the heterogeneous panel cointegration method," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 705-716, May.
    8. Martin Gürtler, 2019. "Dynamic analysis of trade balance behavior in a small open economy: the J-curve phenomenon and the Czech economy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 469-497, February.
    9. Yannick Bineau, 2016. "Real exchange rate and bilateral trade balance of Cambodia: A panel investigation," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(2), pages 895-900.
    10. Qamruzzaman, Md & Jianguo, Wei, 2020. "The asymmetric relationship between financial development, trade openness, foreign capital flows, and renewable energy consumption: Fresh evidence from panel NARDL investigation," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 827-842.
    11. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Huseyin Karamelikli, 2021. "Asymmetric J-curve: evidence from UK-German commodity trade," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1029-1081, November.
    12. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Muhammad Aftab, 2017. "Asymmetric Effects of Exchange Rate Changes and the J-curve: New Evidence from 61 Malaysia–Thailand Industries," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(4), pages 30-46, November.
    13. Mohammad Naim Azimi & Mohammad Musa Shafiq, 2022. "The J-curve phenomenon in Afghanistan and its major trading partners: evidence from a non-linear ARDL approach," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(7), pages 1-28, July.
    14. Salah A. Nusair, 2017. "The J-Curve phenomenon in European transition economies: A nonlinear ARDL approach," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 1-27, January.
    15. Breitung, Jörg & Pesaran, Mohammad Hashem, 2005. "Unit roots and cointegration in panels," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,42, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    16. Md. Qamruzzaman & Jianguo Wei, 2019. "Financial Innovation and Financial Inclusion Nexus in South Asian Countries: Evidence from Symmetric and Asymmetric Panel Investigation," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-27, October.
    17. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Aftab, Muhammad & Harvey, Hanafiah, 2016. "Asymmetry cointegration and the J-curve: New evidence from Malaysia-Singapore commodity trade," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 14(PB), pages 211-226.
    18. Eibinger, Tobias & Deixelberger, Beate & Manner, Hans, 2024. "Panel data in environmental economics: Econometric issues and applications to IPAT models," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    19. Afef Bouattour & Maha Kalai & Kamel Helali, 2024. "The non-linear relationship between ESG performance and bank stability in the digital era: new evidence from a regime-switching approach," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-17, December.
    20. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Jehanzeb Cheema, 2009. "Short-Run And Long-Run Effects Of Currency Depreciation On The Bilateral Trade Balance Between Pakistan And Her Major Trading Partners," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 34(1), pages 19-41, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:agr:journl:v:xxiv:y:2017:i:2(611):p:221-236. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Mircea Dinu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/agerrea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.