IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/aes/amfeco/v24y2022i61p597.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Assessment of Climate Risk Impact on the Economy: A Panel Data Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Teodora Cristina Barbu

    (Bucharest University of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania)

  • Cosmin-Octavian Cepoi

    (Bucharest University of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania)

  • Crina Raluca Petrescu

    (Bucharest University of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania)

  • Mariana Vuta

    (Bucharest University of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania)

Abstract

In this paper, we investigate how climate risk impacts the sovereign risk, the stock market evolution, and the degree of competitiveness, starting from the macroeconomic and financial effects globally produced by climate change. Using both quantile and logistic regression and a sample of 22 countries, of which 16 EU members and 6 OECD members, during the 2008 2019 period, the results highlight a negative relationship between climate risks and the evolution of stock market capitalization as a percentage of GDP. Moreover, the climate risk leads to an increase in sovereign risk only across inferior quantiles, i.e., when the CDS level is small. In addition, based on a logit regression model, we show that the level of competitiveness of a country is influenced to a small extent by the level of climate risk. This could be a consequence of concerns among authorities and companies in each country willing to implement development strategies to achieve the goals proposed by the European Green Pact and standardization of the global price of CO2.

Suggested Citation

  • Teodora Cristina Barbu & Cosmin-Octavian Cepoi & Crina Raluca Petrescu & Mariana Vuta, 2022. "The Assessment of Climate Risk Impact on the Economy: A Panel Data Approach," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 24(61), pages 597-597, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:aes:amfeco:v:24:y:2022:i:61:p:597
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.amfiteatrueconomic.ro/temp/Article_3130.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Daron Acemoglu & Philippe Aghion & Leonardo Bursztyn & David Hemous, 2012. "The Environment and Directed Technical Change," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(1), pages 131-166, February.
    2. Berkman, Henk & Jona, Jonathan & Soderstrom, Naomi, 2019. "Firm value and government commitment to combating climate change," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 297-307.
    3. Marshall Burke & Solomon M. Hsiang & Edward Miguel, 2015. "Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production," Nature, Nature, vol. 527(7577), pages 235-239, November.
    4. Nicholas Stern & Joseph Stiglitz & Charlotte Taylor, 2022. "The economics of immense risk, urgent action and radical change: towards new approaches to the economics of climate change," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(3), pages 181-216, July.
    5. Francesco Lamperti & Valentina Bosetti & Andrea Roventini & Massimo Tavoni, 2019. "The public costs of climate-induced financial instability," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 9(11), pages 829-833, November.
    6. Koenker, Roger, 2004. "Quantile regression for longitudinal data," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 74-89, October.
    7. Ward, Hauke & Steckel, Jan Christoph & Jakob, Michael, 2019. "How global climate policy could affect competitiveness," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(S1).
    8. Stavros Zenios, 2021. "The risks from climate change to sovereign debt in Europe," Policy Contributions 43839, Bruegel.
    9. Serhan Cevik & João Tovar Jalles, 2020. "This Changes Everything: Climate Shocks and Sovereign Bonds," Working Papers REM 2020/0132, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    10. Kakuho Furukawa & Hibiki Ichiue & Noriyuki Shiraki, 2020. "How Does Climate Change Interact with the Financial System? A Survey," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 20-E-8, Bank of Japan.
    11. Christos Karydas & Anastasios Xepapadeas, 2019. "Pricing climate change risks: CAPM with rare disasters and stochastic probabilities," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 19/311, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
    12. John Beirne & Nuobu Renzhi & Ulrich Volz, 2021. "Bracing for the Typhoon: Climate change and sovereign risk in Southeast Asia," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 537-551, May.
    13. Ulrich Schüwer & Claudia Lambert & Felix Noth, 2019. "How Do Banks React to Catastrophic Events? Evidence from Hurricane Katrina," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 23(1), pages 75-116.
    14. Meng, Yijun & Yin, Chao, 2019. "Trust and the cost of debt financing," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 58-73.
    15. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
    16. Ravi Bansal & Dana Kiku & Marcelo Ochoa, 2016. "Price of Long-Run Temperature Shifts in Capital Markets," NBER Working Papers 22529, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Hong, Harrison & Li, Frank Weikai & Xu, Jiangmin, 2019. "Climate risks and market efficiency," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 208(1), pages 265-281.
    18. Gregory, Richard P., 2021. "The pricing of global temperature shocks in the cost of equity capital," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Aguilar-Gomez, Sandra & Gutierrez, Emilio & Heres, David & Jaume, David & Tobal, Martin, 2024. "Thermal stress and financial distress: Extreme temperatures and firms’ loan defaults in Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    2. Drudi, Francesco & Moench, Emanuel & Holthausen, Cornelia & Weber, Pierre-François & Ferrucci, Gianluigi & Setzer, Ralph & Adao, Bernardino & Dées, Stéphane & Alogoskoufis, Spyros & Téllez, Mar Delgad, 2021. "Climate change and monetary policy in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 271, European Central Bank.
    3. Matthew Agarwala & Matt Burke & Patrycja Klusak & Kamiar Mohaddes & Ulrich Volz & Dimitri Zenghelis, 2021. "Climate change and fiscal sustainability: Risks and opportunities," CAMA Working Papers 2021-80, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    4. Matthew Agarwala & Matt Burke & Patrycja Klusak & Kamiar Mohaddes & Ulrich Volz & Dimitri Zenghelis, 2021. "Climate Change and Fiscal Responsibility: Risks and Opportunities," Working Papers 008, The Productivity Institute.
    5. Khalfaoui, Rabeh & Mefteh-Wali, Salma & Viviani, Jean-Laurent & Ben Jabeur, Sami & Abedin, Mohammad Zoynul & Lucey, Brian M., 2022. "How do climate risk and clean energy spillovers, and uncertainty affect U.S. stock markets?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    6. Boitan, Iustina Alina & Marchewka-Bartkowiak, Kamilla, 2022. "Climate change and the pricing of sovereign debt: Insights from European markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    7. Lamperti, Francesco & Bosetti, Valentina & Roventini, Andrea & Tavoni, Massimo & Treibich, Tania, 2021. "Three green financial policies to address climate risks," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    8. Serhan Cevik & João Tovar Jalles, 2022. "An Apocalypse Foretold: Climate Shocks and Sovereign Defaults," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 89-108, February.
    9. Le, Anh-Tuan & Tran, Thao Phuong & Mishra, Anil V., 2023. "Climate risk and bank stability: International evidence," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 70.
    10. Addoum, Jawad M. & Ng, David T. & Ortiz-Bobea, Ariel, 2023. "Temperature shocks and industry earnings news," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(1), pages 1-45.
    11. Bingler, Julia Anna & Kraus, Mathias & Leippold, Markus & Webersinke, Nicolas, 2022. "Cheap talk and cherry-picking: What ClimateBert has to say on corporate climate risk disclosures," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PB).
    12. Pauline Avril & Gregory Levieuge & Camelia Turcu, 2021. "Natural Disasters and Financial Stress: Can Macroprudential Regulation Tame Green Swans?," Working Papers 2021.13, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    13. Francesco Lamperti & Andrea Roventini, 2022. "Beyond climate economics orthodoxy: impacts and policies in the agent-based integrated-assessment DSK model," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 19(3), pages 357-380, December.
    14. Breckenfelder, Johannes & Maćkowiak, Bartosz & Marqués-Ibáñez, David & Olovsson, Conny & Popov, Alexander & Porcellacchia, Davide & Schepens, Glenn, 2023. "The climate and the economy," Working Paper Series 2793, European Central Bank.
    15. repec:ecb:ecbdps:202322 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Signe Krogstrup & William Oman, 2019. "Macroeconomic and Financial Policies for Climate Change Mitigation: A Review of the Literature," IMF Working Papers 2019/185, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Hannes Boehm, 2022. "Physical climate change and the sovereign risk of emerging economies," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 11(1), pages 1-41, December.
    18. Chen, Xinming & Fang, Tong, 2024. "Temperature anomalies and foreign direct investment: City-level evidence from China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    19. Ye, Liping, 2022. "The effect of climate news risk on uncertainties," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    20. Venturini, Alessio, 2022. "Climate change, risk factors and stock returns: A review of the literature," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    climate risk index; stock market capitalisation; sovereign risk; global competitivity; quantile regression; logistic regression.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • D53 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Financial Markets
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aes:amfeco:v:24:y:2022:i:61:p:597. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Valentin Dumitru (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aseeero.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.