IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/aen/journl/ej38-4-demello.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Polypropylene Price Dynamics: Input Costs or Downstream Demand?

Author

Listed:
  • Lurion M. De Mello
  • Ronald D. Ripple

Abstract

This paper investigates price dynamics between polypropylene (PP), propylene, naphtha, and crude oil together with proxies representing PP using industries. We test the dynamics in the South East Asian and North Western European markets. The paper is motivated due to the importance of the propylene and PP market in various downstream industries and importantly to aid producers in having a better understanding of how input costs and demand drive the prices. We employ a vector error correction framework, which facilitates testing different dynamics among the upstream and downstream prices. We find PP prices in both regions to be endogenous, albeit with some evolution over time, i.e., input costs and downstream demand factors tend to drive PP prices. In both regional markets shocks to naphtha and oil prices tend to be driven mostly by each other's price with little effect originating from PP and propylene prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Lurion M. De Mello & Ronald D. Ripple, 2017. "Polypropylene Price Dynamics: Input Costs or Downstream Demand?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4).
    • Handle: RePEc:aen:journl:ej38-4-demello
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.iaee.org/en/publications/ejarticle.aspx?id=2955
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to IAEE members and subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Galeotti, Marzio & Lanza, Alessandro & Manera, Matteo, 2003. "Rockets and feathers revisited: an international comparison on European gasoline markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 175-190, March.
    2. Frank Asche & Shabbar Jaffry & Jessica Hartmann, 2007. "Price transmission and market integration: vertical and horizontal price linkages for salmon," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(19), pages 2535-2545.
    3. Chen, Li-Hsueh & Finney, Miles & Lai, Kon S., 2005. "A threshold cointegration analysis of asymmetric price transmission from crude oil to gasoline prices," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 233-239, November.
    4. Francisco Silva & Maria Batista & Nelson Elias, 2013. "Fuel price transmission mechanisms in Portugal," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(1), pages 72-75, January.
    5. Honarvar, Afshin, 2009. "Asymmetry in retail gasoline and crude oil price movements in the United States: An application of hidden cointegration technique," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 395-402, May.
    6. Apostolos Serletis, 2007. "A Cointegration Analysis of Petroleum Futures Prices," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Quantitative And Empirical Analysis Of Energy Markets, chapter 5, pages 46-54, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    7. David F. Hendry & Katarina Juselius, 2001. "Explaining Cointegration Analysis: Part II," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 75-120.
    8. Grasso, Margherita & Manera, Matteo, 2007. "Asymmetric error correction models for the oil-gasoline price relationship," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 156-177, January.
    9. Barry K. Goodwin & Thomas J. Grennes & Michael K. Wohlgenant, 1990. "A Revised Test of the Law of One Price Using Rational Price Expectations," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 72(3), pages 682-693.
    10. Bacon, Robert W., 1991. "Rockets and feathers: the asymmetric speed of adjustment of UK retail gasoline prices to cost changes," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 211-218, July.
    11. Masih, Mansur & Algahtani, Ibrahim & De Mello, Lurion, 2010. "Price dynamics of crude oil and the regional ethylene markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1435-1444, November.
    12. Asche, Frank & Gjolberg, Ole & Volker, Teresa, 2003. "Price relationships in the petroleum market: an analysis of crude oil and refined product prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 289-301, May.
    13. Paul Berhanu Girma & Albert S. Paulson, 1999. "Risk arbitrage opportunities in petroleum futures spreads," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(8), pages 931-955, December.
    14. Severin Borenstein & A. Colin Cameron & Richard Gilbert, 1997. "Do Gasoline Prices Respond Asymmetrically to Crude Oil Price Changes?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 112(1), pages 305-339.
    15. Gjolberg, Ole & Johnsen, Thore, 1999. "Risk management in the oil industry: can information on long-run equilibrium prices be utilized?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 517-527, December.
    16. Masih, A. Mansur M. & Albinali, Khaled & DeMello, Lurion, 2010. "Price dynamics of natural gas and the regional methanol markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1372-1378, March.
    17. Adrangi, Bahram & Chatrath, Arjun & Raffiee, Kambiz & D. Ripple, Ronald, 2001. "Alaska North Slope crude oil price and the behavior of diesel prices in California," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 29-42, January.
    18. Goodwin, Barry K. & Grennes, Thomas & Wohlgenant, Michael K., 1990. "Testing the law of one price when trade takes time," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 21-40, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ullah, Atta & Ullah, Saif & Pinglu, Chen & Khan, Saba, 2023. "Impact of FinTech, governance and environmental taxes on energy transition: Pre-post COVID-19 analysis of belt and road initiative countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
    2. Song, Malin & Zheng, Huanyu & Shen, Zhiyang & Chen, Boyang, 2023. "How financial technology affects energy transformation in China," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    3. Konstantinos N. Baltas & Robert Mann & Nicholaos C. Baltas, 2024. "The COVID-19 Pandemic and Unsustainable PPE Materials: A Correlation and Causality Analysis," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 87(6), pages 1651-1671, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Storhas, Dominik P. & De Mello, Lurion & Singh, Abhay Kumar, 2020. "Multiscale lead-lag relationships in oil and refined product return dynamics: A symbolic wavelet transfer entropy approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    2. Zhang, Tao & Ma, Guofeng & Liu, Guangsheng, 2015. "Nonlinear joint dynamics between prices of crude oil and refined products," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 419(C), pages 444-456.
    3. Moutinho, Victor & Bento, João Paulo Cerdeira & Hajko, Vladimír, 2017. "Price relationships between crude oil and transport fuels in the European Union before and after the 2008 financial crisis," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 76-83.
    4. Ederington, Louis H. & Fernando, Chitru S. & Hoelscher, Seth A. & Lee, Thomas K. & Linn, Scott C., 2019. "A review of the evidence on the relation between crude oil prices and petroleum product prices," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 1-15.
    5. Mario Denni & G. Frewer, 2006. "New evidence on the relationship beetween crude oil and petroleum product prices," Departmental Working Papers of Economics - University 'Roma Tre' 0061, Department of Economics - University Roma Tre.
    6. Bakhat, Mohcine & Rosselló, Jaume & Sansó, Andreu, 2022. "Price transmission between oil and gasoline and diesel: A new measure for evaluating time asymmetries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    7. Masih, Mansur & Algahtani, Ibrahim & De Mello, Lurion, 2010. "Price dynamics of crude oil and the regional ethylene markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1435-1444, November.
    8. Katarzyna Leszkiewicz-Kędzior & Aleksander Welfe, 2014. "Asymmetric Price Adjustments in the Fuel Market," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 6(2), pages 105-127, June.
    9. Kristoufek, Ladislav & Lunackova, Petra, 2015. "Rockets and feathers meet Joseph: Reinvestigating the oil–gasoline asymmetry on the international markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 1-8.
    10. Serra, Teresa & Gil, José M., 2012. "Biodiesel as a motor fuel price stabilization mechanism," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 689-698.
    11. Taner SEKMEN & Seher Gülşah TOPUZ, 2021. "Asymmetric Oil Price and Exchange Rate Pass-Through in the Turkish Oil-Gasoline Markets," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 74-93, June.
    12. Albulescu, Claudiu Tiberiu & Mutascu, Mihai Ioan, 2021. "Fuel price co-movements among France, Germany and Italy: A time-frequency investigation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    13. Honarvar, Afshin, 2009. "Asymmetry in retail gasoline and crude oil price movements in the United States: An application of hidden cointegration technique," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 395-402, May.
    14. Pal, Debdatta & Mitra, Subrata K., 2016. "Asymmetric oil product pricing in India: Evidence from a multiple threshold nonlinear ARDL model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 314-328.
    15. Apergis, Nicholas & Vouzavalis, Grigorios, 2018. "Asymmetric pass through of oil prices to gasoline prices: Evidence from a new country sample," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 519-528.
    16. Huang, Wen-Hsiu & Chao, Ming-Che, 2012. "The effects of oil prices on the price indices in Taiwan: International or domestic oil prices matter?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 730-738.
    17. D. O. Olayungbo & T. A. Ojeyinka, 2022. "Crude oil prices pass-through to retail petroleum product prices in Nigeria: evidence from hidden cointegration approach," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 951-972, May.
    18. Hengyun Ma & Les Oxley & John Gibson, 2008. "Testing for Energy Market Integration in China," Working Papers in Economics 08/12, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
    19. Lanza, Alessandro & Manera, Matteo & Giovannini, Massimo, 2005. "Modeling and forecasting cointegrated relationships among heavy oil and product prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 831-848, November.
    20. Robert Socha, 2014. "Asymetria relacji cen paliw płynnych w Polsce i cen ropy naftowej," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 5, pages 133-160.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aen:journl:ej38-4-demello. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: David Williams (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iaeeeea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.