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Exogenous Oil supply Shocks in OPEC and Non-OPEC Countries

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  • Jochen Güntner
  • Johannes Henler

Abstract

This paper expands Kilian’s (2008) original time series of exogenous oil supply shocks along two dimensions. First, we extend the sample period to include production shortfalls in OPEC member states during 2004:10-2019:12. Second, we also consider production shortfalls in non-OPEC countries. Our extended time series of exogenous oil supply shocks displays statistically significant correlation with alternative estimates of oil supply shocks based on vector-autoregressive models. At the same time, it requires a limited number of assumptions about the counterfactual evolution of production in the countries under consideration and escapes thus the current debate about the validity of common identifying restrictions in multivariate structural models.

Suggested Citation

  • Jochen Güntner & Johannes Henler, 2021. "Exogenous Oil supply Shocks in OPEC and Non-OPEC Countries," The Energy Journal, , vol. 42(6), pages 229-246, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:42:y:2021:i:6:p:229-246
    DOI: 10.5547/01956574.42.6.jgun
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    1. Bastianin, Andrea & Manera, Matteo, 2018. "How Does Stock Market Volatility React To Oil Price Shocks?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(3), pages 666-682, April.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Counterfactual analysis; Crude oil production; Exogenous events; Oil supply shocks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • N50 - Economic History - - Agriculture, Natural Resources, Environment and Extractive Industries - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • Q31 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q35 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Hydrocarbon Resources

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