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The Relation between Behavior under Risk and over Time

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  • Anujit Chakraborty
  • Yoram Halevy
  • Kota Saito

Abstract

The paper establishes a tight relation between nonstandard behaviors in the domains of risk and time, by considering a decision-maker with non-expected utility preferences who believes that only present consumption is certain while any future consumption is uncertain. We provide the first complete characterizations of the two-way relations between the certainty effect and present bias, and between the common ratio effect and temporal reversals.

Suggested Citation

  • Anujit Chakraborty & Yoram Halevy & Kota Saito, 2020. "The Relation between Behavior under Risk and over Time," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 1-16, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aerins:v:2:y:2020:i:1:p:1-16
    DOI: 10.1257/aeri.20190051
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    1. Halevy, Yoram, 2004. "Diminishing Impatience: Disentangling Time Preference from Uncertain Lifetime," Microeconomics.ca working papers halevy-04-10-29-09-59-47, Vancouver School of Economics, revised 25 Feb 2014.
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    3. Partha Dasgupta & Eric Maskin, 2005. "Uncertainty and Hyperbolic Discounting," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(4), pages 1290-1299, September.
    4. Drazen Prelec & George Loewenstein, 1991. "Decision Making Over Time and Under Uncertainty: A Common Approach," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 37(7), pages 770-786, July.
    5. Machina, Mark J, 1982. ""Expected Utility" Analysis without the Independence Axiom," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(2), pages 277-323, March.
    6. Keren, Gideon & Roelofsma, Peter, 1995. "Immediacy and Certainty in Intertemporal Choice," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 287-297, September.
    7. Segal, Uzi, 1987. "The Ellsberg Paradox and Risk Aversion: An Anticipated Utility Approach," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 28(1), pages 175-202, February.
    8. Kota Saito, 2011. "Strotz Meets Allais: Diminishing Impatience and the Certainty Effect: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 2271-2275, August.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jonathan Chapman & Mark Dean & Pietro Ortoleva & Erik Snowberg & Colin Camerer, 2020. "Econographics," Working Papers 2020-75, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    2. Kai Ruggeri & Amma Panin & Milica Vdovic & Bojana Većkalov & Nazeer Abdul-Salaam & Jascha Achterberg & Carla Akil & Jolly Amatya & Kanchan Amatya & Thomas Lind Andersen & Sibele D. Aquino & Arjoon Aru, 2022. "The globalizability of temporal discounting," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 6(10), pages 1386-1397, October.
      • Kai Ruggeri & Amma Panin & Milica Vdovic & Bojana Većkalov & Nazeer Abdul-Salaam & Jascha Achterberg & Carla Akil & Jolly Amatya & Kanchan Amatya & Thomas Lind Andersen & Sibele D Aquino & Arjoon Arun, 2022. "The globalizability of temporal discounting," Post-Print halshs-03903193, HAL.
    3. Kuroishi, Yusuke & Sawada, Yasuyuki, 2024. "On the stability of preferences: Experimental evidence from two disasters," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    4. Benjamin Enke & Thomas W. Graeber, 2021. "Cognitive Uncertainty in Intertemporal Choice," CESifo Working Paper Series 9472, CESifo.
    5. Balbus, Łukasz & Reffett, Kevin & Woźny, Łukasz, 2022. "Time-consistent equilibria in dynamic models with recursive payoffs and behavioral discounting," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    6. Kai Ruggeri & Amma Panin & Milica Vdovic & Bojana Većkalov & Nazeer Abdul-Salaam & Jascha Achterberg & Carla Akil & Jolly Amatya & Kanchan Amatya & Thomas Lind Andersen & Sibele D. Aquino & Arjoon Aru, 2022. "The globalizability of temporal discounting," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 6(10), pages 1386-1397, October.
    7. Calcott, Paul & Petkov, Vladimir, 2024. "How innocuous is it to approximate globally decreasing impatience with quasi-hyperbolic discounting?," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    8. Christopher P. Chambers & Federico Echenique & Alan D. Miller, 2023. "Decreasing Impatience," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(3), pages 527-551, August.
    9. Anujit Chakraborty, 2021. "Present Bias," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(4), pages 1921-1961, July.
    10. Zhihua Li & Songfa Zhong, 2023. "Reference Dependence in Intertemporal Preference," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(1), pages 475-490, January.
    11. Schneider, Mark, 2020. "Temptation-biased preferences for risk and time," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    12. Federico Echenique & Gerelt Tserenjigmid, 2023. "Revealed preferences for dynamically inconsistent models," Papers 2305.14125, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2023.
    13. Ali al-Nowaihi & Sanjit Dhami, 2021. "Preferences over Time and under Uncertainty: Theoretical Foundations," CESifo Working Paper Series 9215, CESifo.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D11 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Theory
    • D15 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Intertemporal Household Choice; Life Cycle Models and Saving
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making

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