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RISK IN TIME: The Intertwined Nature of Risk Taking and Time Discounting

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  • Thomas F Epper

    (LEM - Lille économie management - UMR 9221 - UA - Université d'Artois - UCL - Université catholique de Lille - Université de Lille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, IÉSEG School Of Management [Puteaux])

  • Helga Fehr-Duda

    (UZH - Universität Zürich [Zürich] = University of Zurich)

Abstract

Standard economic models view risk taking and time discounting as two independent dimensions of decision making. However, mounting experimental evidence demonstrates striking parallels in patterns of risk taking and time discounting behavior and systematic interaction effects, which suggests that there may be common underlying forces driving these interactions. Here we show that the inherent uncertainty associated with future prospects together with individuals' proneness to probability weighting generates a unifying framework for explaining a large number of puzzling behavioral regularities: delay-dependent risk tolerance, aversion to sequential resolution of uncertainty, preferences for the timing of the resolution of uncertainty, the differential discounting of risky and certain outcomes, hyperbolic discounting, subadditive discounting, and the order dependence of prospect valuation. Furthermore, all these phenomena can be predicted simultaneously with the same set of preference parameters.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas F Epper & Helga Fehr-Duda, 2024. "RISK IN TIME: The Intertwined Nature of Risk Taking and Time Discounting," Post-Print hal-03473431, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03473431
    DOI: 10.1093/jeea/jvad041
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://cnrs.hal.science/hal-03473431v1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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