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Downward Revision of Investment Decisions after Corporate Tax Hikes

Author

Listed:
  • Sebastian Link
  • Manuel Menkhoff
  • Andreas Peichl
  • Paul Schüle

Abstract

This paper estimates the causal effect of corporate tax hikes on firm investment based on more than 1,400 local tax changes. By observing planned and realized investment volumes in a representative sample of German manufacturing firms, we can study how tax hikes induce firms to revise their investment decisions. On average, the share of firms that invest less than previously planned increases by 3 percentage points after a tax hike. This effect is twice as large during recessions.

Suggested Citation

  • Sebastian Link & Manuel Menkhoff & Andreas Peichl & Paul Schüle, 2024. "Downward Revision of Investment Decisions after Corporate Tax Hikes," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 16(4), pages 194-222, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejpol:v:16:y:2024:i:4:p:194-222
    DOI: 10.1257/pol.20220530
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies
    • H25 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Business Taxes and Subsidies
    • H32 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Firm
    • H71 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
    • L60 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - General

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