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Labor Market Effects of Credit Constraints: Evidence from a Natural Experiment

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  • Anil Kumar
  • Che-Yuan Liang

Abstract

We exploit the 1997 and 2003 constitutional amendments in Texas—allowing home equity loans and lines of credit for nonhousing purposes—as natural experiments to estimate the effect of easier credit access on the labor market. Using state-level as well as micro data, we find that easier access to housing credit led to a notably lower labor force participation rate between 1997 and 2007. Our findings are remarkably robust to improved synthetic control methods based on insights from machine learning. Our research shows that negative labor market effects of easier credit access are important for assessing its stimulative impact on overall growth.

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  • Anil Kumar & Che-Yuan Liang, 2024. "Labor Market Effects of Credit Constraints: Evidence from a Natural Experiment," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 16(3), pages 1-26, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejpol:v:16:y:2024:i:3:p:1-26
    DOI: 10.1257/pol.20200683
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    1. Gissur Ó Erlingsson & Jonas Klarin & Eva Maria Mörk, 2021. "Does Size Matter? Evidence from Municipality Break-Ups," CESifo Working Paper Series 9042, CESifo.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C45 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Neural Networks and Related Topics
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G51 - Financial Economics - - Household Finance - - - Household Savings, Borrowing, Debt, and Wealth
    • J16 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Gender; Non-labor Discrimination
    • J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply

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