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Beliefs, Learning, and Personality in the Indefinitely Repeated Prisoner's Dilemma

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  • David Gill
  • Yaroslav Rosokha

Abstract

We aim to understand the role and evolution of beliefs in the indefinitely repeated prisoner's dilemma (IRPD). To do so, we elicit beliefs about the supergame strategies chosen by others. We find heterogeneity in beliefs and changes in beliefs with experience are central to understanding behavior and learning in the IRPD. Beliefs strongly predict cooperation, beliefs respond to the return to cooperation, most subjects choose strategies that perform well given their beliefs, and beliefs change with experience while becoming more accurate over time. Finally, we uncover a novel mechanism whereby trusting subjects learn to cooperate through their interaction with experience.

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  • David Gill & Yaroslav Rosokha, 2024. "Beliefs, Learning, and Personality in the Indefinitely Repeated Prisoner's Dilemma," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 16(3), pages 259-283, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejmic:v:16:y:2024:i:3:p:259-83
    DOI: 10.1257/mic.20210336
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    Cited by:

    1. Kettlewell, Nathan & Tymula, Agnieszka, 2024. "Heritability across different domains of trust," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 219(C), pages 549-563.
    2. Heller, Yuval & Tubul, Itay, 2023. "Strategies in the repeated prisoner’s dilemma: A cluster analysis," MPRA Paper 117444, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Maximilian Andres, 2023. "Communication in the Infinitely Repeated Prisoner's Dilemma: Theory and Experiments," Papers 2304.12297, arXiv.org.
    4. Masaki Aoyagi & Guillaume Frechette & Sevgi Yuksel, 2021. "Beliefs in Repeated Games," ISER Discussion Paper 1119, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    5. Evans, Alecia & Sesmero, Juan, 2022. "Cooperation in Social Dilemmas with Correlated Noisy Payoffs: Theory and Experimental Evidence," 2021 Annual Meeting, August 1-3, Austin, Texas 322804, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    6. Masaki Aoyagi & Guillaume Frechette & Sevgi Yuksel, 2021. "Beliefs in Repeated Games," ISER Discussion Paper 1119rr, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University, revised May 2022.
    7. Julian Romero & Yaroslav Rosokha, 2023. "Mixed Strategies in the Indefinitely Repeated Prisoner's Dilemma," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 91(6), pages 2295-2331, November.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C72 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Noncooperative Games
    • C73 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Stochastic and Dynamic Games; Evolutionary Games
    • C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making

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