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Too Good to Be True? Retention Rules for Noisy Agents

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  • Francisco Espinosa
  • Debraj Ray

Abstract

An agent who privately knows his type seeks to be retained by a principal. Agents signal their type with some ambient noise, but can alter this noise, perhaps at some cost. Our main finding is that in equilibrium, the principal treats extreme signals in either direction with suspicion, and retains the agent if and only if the signal falls in some intermediate bounded set. In short, she follows the maxim: "if it seems too good to be true, it probably is." We consider extensions and applications, including non-normal signal structures, dynamics with term limits, risky portfolio management, and political risk-taking.

Suggested Citation

  • Francisco Espinosa & Debraj Ray, 2023. "Too Good to Be True? Retention Rules for Noisy Agents," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 493-535, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejmic:v:15:y:2023:i:2:p:493-535
    DOI: 10.1257/mic.20200472
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hans K. Hvide, 2002. "Tournament Rewards and Risk Taking," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 20(4), pages 877-898, October.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G41 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making in Financial Markets

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