IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/aea/aejmic/v14y2022i3p733-90.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Trade and Urbanization: Evidence from Hungary

Author

Listed:
  • Dávid Krisztián Nagy

Abstract

I study how trade affects urbanization and real income. To this end, I exploit large-scale exogenous changes in trade stemming from the redrawing of Hungary's borders after the First World War. I show that urbanization in counties near the new border decreased significantly relative to counties farther away. I rationalize this reduced-form finding in a spatial model in which benefits from trading drive agglomeration around locations where trading activity takes place. Structurally estimating the model, I find a 15.55 percent decrease in Hungarian residents' average real income after the redrawing of borders, with the largest losses concentrated in border regions.

Suggested Citation

  • Dávid Krisztián Nagy, 2022. "Trade and Urbanization: Evidence from Hungary," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(3), pages 733-790, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejmic:v:14:y:2022:i:3:p:733-90
    DOI: 10.1257/mic.20180270
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/doi/10.1257/mic.20180270
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://doi.org/10.3886/E137882V1
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/doi/10.1257/mic.20180270.ds
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to AEA members and institutional subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1257/mic.20180270?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Samuel Bazzi, 2017. "Wealth Heterogeneity and the Income Elasticity of Migration," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(2), pages 219-255, April.
    2. Gharad Bryan & Shyamal Chowdhury & Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak, 2014. "Underinvestment in a Profitable Technology: The Case of Seasonal Migration in Bangladesh," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(5), pages 1671-1748, September.
    3. Stephen J. Redding & Daniel M. Sturm, 2008. "The Costs of Remoteness: Evidence from German Division and Reunification," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(5), pages 1766-1797, December.
    4. Brülhart, Marius & Carrère, Céline & Trionfetti, Federico, 2012. "How wages and employment adjust to trade liberalization: Quasi-experimental evidence from Austria," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 68-81.
    5. Dávid Krisztián Nagy, 2020. "Hinterlands, City Formation and Growth: Evidence from the U.S. Westward Expansion," Working Papers 1172, Barcelona School of Economics.
    6. Krugman, Paul & Elizondo, Raul Livas, 1996. "Trade policy and the Third World metropolis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 137-150, April.
    7. Feyrer, James, 2021. "Distance, trade, and income — The 1967 to 1975 closing of the Suez canal as a natural experiment," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    8. Krugman, Paul, 1991. "Increasing Returns and Economic Geography," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(3), pages 483-499, June.
    9. Brooks, Leah & Gendron-Carrier, Nicolas & Rua, Gisela, 2021. "The local impact of containerization," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    10. Simonovska, Ina & Waugh, Michael E., 2014. "The elasticity of trade: Estimates and evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 34-50.
    11. Klaus Desmet & Dávid Krisztián Nagy & Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, 2018. "The Geography of Development," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(3), pages 903-983.
    12. Redding, Stephen J., 2016. "Goods trade, factor mobility and welfare," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 148-167.
    13. Pablo Fajgelbaum & Stephen J. Redding, 2022. "Trade, Structural Transformation, and Development: Evidence from Argentina 1869–1914," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 130(5), pages 1249-1318.
    14. Trevor Tombe & Xiaodong Zhu, 2019. "Trade, Migration, and Productivity: A Quantitative Analysis of China," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(5), pages 1843-1872, May.
    15. James Feyrer, 2019. "Trade and Income—Exploiting Time Series in Geography," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(4), pages 1-35, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lili Huang & Qingyi Gao & Jiachen Fan & Jingwen Zhu & Zhenmu Hong, 2024. "Export stability and adolescent fertility rate," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(3), pages 1675-1706, April.
    2. Lucie Coufalová & Fanny Dellinger & Peter Huber & Stepan Mikula, 2024. "Borders and Population Growth: Evidence from a Century of Border Regime Changes on the Austrian-Czech Border," WIFO Working Papers 680, WIFO.
    3. Christian Ochsner, 2023. "Hostility, Population Sorting, and Backwardness: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from the Red Army after WWII," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp768, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. David Krisztián Nagy, 2020. "Trade and urbanization: Evidence from Hungary," Economics Working Papers 1858, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    2. Stephen J. Redding & Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, 2017. "Quantitative Spatial Economics," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 9(1), pages 21-58, September.
    3. Eberhard-Ruiz, Andreas & Moradi, Alexander, 2019. "Regional market integration in East Africa: Local but no regional effects?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 255-268.
    4. Baum-Snow, Nathaniel & Henderson, J. Vernon & Turner, Matthew A. & Zhang, Qinghua & Brandt, Loren, 2020. "Does investment in national highways help or hurt hinterland city growth?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    5. Redding, Stephen, 2020. "Trade and Geography," CEPR Discussion Papers 15268, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Fabian Eckert & Michael Peters, 2018. "Spatial Structural Change," 2018 Meeting Papers 98, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Fei, Xuan, 2022. "Trade liberalization and structural changes: Prefecture-level evidence from China," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 103-126.
    8. Behrens, Kristian & Murata, Yasusada, 2021. "On quantitative spatial economic models," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    9. Brülhart, Marius & Carrère, Céline & Robert-Nicoud, Frédéric, 2018. "Trade and towns: Heterogeneous adjustment to a border shock," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 162-175.
    10. Nagy, Dávid Krisztián, 2022. "Quantitative economic geography meets history: Questions, answers and challenges," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    11. Hanlon, W.Walker & Heblich, Stephan, 2022. "History and urban economics," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    12. David Krisztián Nagy, 2020. "Quantitative economic geography meets history: Questions, answers and challenges," Economics Working Papers 1774, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Mar 2021.
    13. Ferdinando Monte & Stephen J. Redding & Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, 2018. "Commuting, Migration, and Local Employment Elasticities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(12), pages 3855-3890, December.
    14. Farrokhi, Farid & Jinkins, David, 2019. "Wage inequality and the location of cities," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 76-92.
    15. Redding, Stephen J., 2016. "Goods trade, factor mobility and welfare," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 148-167.
    16. Hsu, Wen-Tai & Lu, Yi & Luo, Xuan & Zhu, Lianming, 2023. "Foreign direct investment and industrial agglomeration: Evidence from China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 610-639.
    17. Jacks, David S. & Novy, Dennis, 2018. "Market Potential and Global Growth over the Long Twentieth Century," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 221-237.
    18. Rodrigo Adão & Costas Arkolakis & Federico Esposito, 2019. "General Equilibrium Effects in Space: Theory and Measurement," NBER Working Papers 25544, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Kristian Behrens & W. Mark Brown & Théophile Bougna, 2018. "The World Is Not Yet Flat: Transport Costs Matter!," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 100(4), pages 712-724, October.
    20. Breinlich, Holger & Ottaviano, Gianmarco I.P. & Temple, Jonathan R.W., 2014. "Regional Growth and Regional Decline," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 4, pages 683-779, Elsevier.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F11 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Neoclassical Models of Trade
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • N34 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - Europe: 1913-
    • N74 - Economic History - - Economic History: Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, and Other Services - - - Europe: 1913-
    • N94 - Economic History - - Regional and Urban History - - - Europe: 1913-
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aea:aejmic:v:14:y:2022:i:3:p:733-90. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Michael P. Albert (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aeaaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.